UFC 292: Will Aljamain Sterling leave bantamweight division on top against 'Sugar' Sean O'Malley?

UFC 292’s main event brings a bantamweight championship fight to the city of Boston. Aljamain Sterling looks to put an exclamation point on his title reign by taking out Sean O’Malley as his last order of business.

If all goes according to plan, Sterling will move to the featherweight division and clear the way for his teammate, Merab Devalishvili, to pursue keeping the 135-pound strap. I am sure O’Malley, the UFC’s brash bantamweight contender, has other plans.

In a unique way, Saturday night’s main event is a prove-it fight for both the champion and the challenger. While some point to illegal knees and separated shoulders to pick apart Sterling’s recent run, others recognize that O’Malley’s mouth played as significant of a role as his resume in earning him a title shot. A controversial split-decision win over former champion Petr Yan opened the window for the promotion to cash in on his star power.

O’Malley enters Saturday night’s main event as a +200 underdog, while Sterling is -250 favorite to defend his belt for the fourth consecutive time. I will explain why I think the price tag on Sterling is warranted, but also why I am not betting it.

Aljamain Sterling -250 vs. Sean O’Malley +200

Entertainment is part of the fight business. The public loves to gravitate towards villains, even more so when they are underdogs. When they have a history of highlight-reel knockouts and cashing as a +240 underdog, good luck keeping the public away from the betting window.

That being said, O’Malley is the Ferrari in this fight, and Sterling is about to take him off-road to find out what he is really made of. Sure, the challenger brings an advanced striking arsenal. He does an excellent job measuring up his opponent at range, mixing in body work with a certain fluidity that is often reserved for top-level fighters. Outside of the obvious scenarios where he can clip Sterling when he is overcommitting, I have a hard time seeing a path to victory for the challenger. Sterling is well-coached and comes from one of the most decorated teams in MMA, so I am confident he will be focused, disciplined and prepared. O’Malley has been refreshing candid about the importance of keeping the fight standing, which is going to be an incredibly daunting task considering the gap in grappling between the two fighters.

Sterling is coming off a five-round win where he secured four takedowns against an Olympic gold medalist in Henry Cejudo. As the champ’s recent opponents have learned, the real work begins once he plants you on your back. Sterling is stellar at using control time to punish his opponents while advancing positions, putting them in peril with perfectly executed back takes. Per Richard Mann, Sterling is 13-1 in his career when he spends 15% of the fight in control positions, which is only 3:45 seconds of a five-round fight. It's a real possibility Sterling could clear that on a single takedown if he hits it early in the round.

O’Malley excels at keeping his opponents on the end of his punches, but Sterling is too athletic and strong to be denied for five rounds. It wouldn’t surprise me if O’Malley comes equipped with a tactical gameplan to keep this one standing, and it’s reasonable to expect some level of success early. However, Sterling’s superior grappling, once he is on top, is where this fight will quickly turn uncompetitive.

This one could end by the champion raining down blows or by making an overmatched O’Malley tap, but it’s going to end before the final bell. I have Sterling as a bigger favorite than the moneyline odds (-250) imply at 71.43%, so that’s the correct side in my eyes. But while that’s the right bet, it’s not the right bet for me. I see a bigger edge with betting Sterling to win inside the distance at close to even money. The champion wants to put a stamp on his bantamweight reign, and there are advantages against O’Malley that will allow him to do just that. Bet: Aljamain Sterling by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission -110.