UFC 291 betting: How to bet Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
The last 12 months have been a crazy ride for the UFC’s light heavyweight division. It all started at UFC 275, when Jiří Procházka captured the title by defeating Glover Texeria in one of the most exhilarating, back-and-forth fights in the history of the division. The weight class was alive again, and all of us couldn’t wait to see the incredible potential matchups between the top contenders. Instead of seeing all those dream matchups, fans are stuck witnessing a surreal chain of events marred by injuries that leaves the division in flux more than a year later.
November 2022: Procházka vacates the title due to a serious shoulder injury.
December 2022: Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev fight to a draw, forcing the light heavyweight title to remain vacant.
January 2023: Jamahal Hill defeats Teixeira to become light heavyweight champion.
July 2023: Hill vacates title due to an Achilles injury.
In a perfect world, Procházka will return to fight for the vacated belt in late 2023. What happens in Saturday night’s co-main event will go a long way in determining his opponent. After failing to reclaim the light heavyweight title in December, Blachowicz gets another chance to strengthen his case against Alex Pereira at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City in Pereira's debut at 205 pounds.
Blachowicz opened as the favorite, but support for the former middleweight champion has pushed the odds to -110 on each side. Should we bet on Pereira’s power at a higher weight class or bank on Blachowicz grappling to neutralize his opponent?
Jan Blachowicz (-110) vs. Alex Pereira (-110)
Blachowicz is an open book at this point in his career. The 39-fight veteran is best known for being well-rounded, allowing him to both match his opponent on the feet or on the mat. That’s going to be a major factor in this fight. Blachowicz is 40, and bettors will always be fearful of the former champ slowing down, but his massive edge in experience is probably more valuable considering this stylistic matchup.
Handicapping Pereira, on the other hand, requires a lot of projection. In the future, I expect Pereira will be a mainstay at the top of the division. But fighting somebody like Blachowicz, a former champion who is solid everywhere, in your first fight at a new weight class is a very bold challenge. Tack on the fact that Pereira is coming off getting viciously knocked out only three months ago, and that adds a whole other layer of risk for bettors to worry about. It’s impossible to know how Pereira will respond after losing the biggest fight of his career.
The plan for Blachowicz will be similar to how he was able to defeat Pereira’s biggest rival, Israel Adesanya. Blachowicz used his size and offensive wrestling to keep Adesanya on his back when the fight mattered most, scoring late takedowns and dominating control time by more than seven minutes. Blachowicz won’t be looking to exchange in the pocket until someone drops, although he is capable of having enough success mixing up his strikes to set up his takedowns. The duality of his offense will allow him to get the fight to the mat, where he will hold a massive advantage.
If you read through Adesanya’s post-fight comments, it’s Blachowicz's striking defense that makes him so difficult to deal with. It's a very important aspect of this fight, considering his opponent's singular path to victory. The former light heavyweight champ does an excellent job checking kicks and keeping his hands high, which help him methodically close the distance to initiate grappling.
Of course, it only takes one flurry from Pereira to erase all of Blachowicz’s advantages. It’s an inevitable risk you must be willing to inherit when betting against an elite striker. If I was playing a video game and creating a fighter to beat Alex Pereira, I’d like one with good offensive wrestling, enough striking to threaten on the feet and a history of checking leg kicks successfully. Sprinkle in some championship experience, and that’s Jan Blachowicz. I think he gets this fight to the ground, and there is a better chance than the odds imply at -110 that Pereira isn’t able to get back to his feet. If Blachowicz can’t finish by battering him from top position, he will win enough rounds to get his hand raised. Best bet: Blachowicz (-110)
