UFC 290 betting, odds: Here's one prelim fight to jump on right away

It’s International Fight Week in Las Vegas. This time every year, the promotion puts together multiple events throughout the week to provide fans access to several of its fighters and the opportunity to attend its Hall of Fame induction ceremony. Those of us who won’t be in Las Vegas for the festivities still look forward to International Fight Week because it always signals that a stacked pay-per-view card is coming our way.

UFC 290 is headlined by two championship fights with Alexander Volkanovski and Brandon Moreno set to defend their titles against Yair Rodriguez and Alexandre Pantoja, respectively. With Volkanovski’s odds at -450, I will be holding off until later in the week to comb through the options in the prop market before deciding if the fight is worth a wager. There was a fight on the preliminary card that I jumped on early, and below I will explain why I think there is a solid edge at the current odds.

Jimmy Crute (-115) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-105)

Crute and Menifield are running it back after fighting to a majority draw five months ago at UFC 284. I love this fight because it forces us to face some of the most challenging aspects of betting MMA. Crute opened as a -230 favorite in the first fight. After starting his UFC career 4-1, the Australian fell hard when challenged by the elite fighters in the division. He suffered back-to-back losses, including a first-round KO to current champion Jamahal Hill. Despite the step down in competition to the unranked Menfield, I considered Crute a vulnerable enough favorite to take a position on Menifield at +160 in a fight that I saw closer to a coin-flip. The market agreed as Crute closed as a -175 favorite, 55 cents lower than the opening odds.

There were some red flags with Crute going into the previous fight. He was coming off a two-year layoff, serious injuries and a knockout loss. Those are situations where I mentally flag favorites, and considering Menifield’s profile as a power puncher with 10 of his 13 wins coming via knockout, it made sense to bet him at +160. Quantifying the value of these situational spots is a never-ending quest of every MMA bettor.

Menifield was the better fighter in the first fight

The fight wasn’t as close as your typical draw, but the push felt more like a loss because I was clearly on the right side at +160. Menifield came close to finishing the fight early and was up 20-18 on two judges' scorecards entering the final round. As Crute came on late, a point-deduction to Menifield for fence-grabbing allowed Crute to even up the fight with a 10-8 third round. Overall, Menifield had much more success and big moments during the fight. He sat Crute down twice, almost finishing him with hammerfists, and he also had the edge in significant strikes, 56-31, with 67% accuracy. The dangerous striker landed much more frequently than his career average (57%) on Crute. Menifield sounds like a shoe-in to get revenge so far, but here is where price and your evaluation of the surrounding dynamics are critical in handicapping this fight.

It’s the same fighters, but it’s not the same fight

Let’s start with the most important difference from the first bout: price. This is a perfect example of why it's the odds that make a bet valuable, not the fighters. There is over a 12% difference in implied probability from betting Menifield at +160 in the first fight and playing him at -105 in this matchup. If I previously made the fight close to 50-50 with Crute’s layoff, previous injuries and knockout susceptibility all baked in, then Menifield’s current price at -105 (51.22% implied) isn’t much value at all. The first fight removed much of the concerns I had previously flagged. Crute is now active and has shown the ability to survive Menifield’s power for three rounds, even when he got dangerously rocked. Menifield’s power makes him a constant threat to end any fight in Round 1, but I expect Crute’s striking defense to be improved after knocking the rust off. He might still get dropped, but Menifield is unlikely to connect at a 67% clip again.

We are getting Crute at a discount due to the result of the first fight. Even if you don’t agree with the previous -175 closing price, this is a big move. We have a ranked fighter who opened at -230 coming off a two-year layoff, and now he's at -115 odds against the same exact fighter. When I rewatch the first fight, I don’t see enough to warrant this significant of a shift. Crute was able to land six takedowns with 50% accuracy and earned a four-minute advantage in control time (7:55-3:55) throughout the three rounds. That gives me confidence he can implement his game plan with success while doing a better job of evading his opponent’s power this time around.

Crute is entering his prime at 27 and is more likely to show a better version of himself now that he is back into the flow of consecutive camps. Menifield, on the other hand, turns 36 in October. Age gaps of this level aren’t historically kind to the seniors. Let’s bank on Crute to get the job done Saturday night. It’s hard to put a number on situational spots like layoffs and ring rust, but I am confident they have downgraded Crute too much. Best Bet: Jimmy Crute ML (-115)