UFC 290 betting: Here's how to approach Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez

Mark Drumheller

International Fight Week culminates Saturday night when Alexander Volkanovski faces Yair Rodriguez in the main event of UFC 290.

Getting to watch Volkanovski’s greatness as he attempts to unify the featherweight titles is the perfect way to close out the UFC’s biggest weekend of the year. The need to unify his world title with the interim belt is solely a result of his dominance. Short of challenges, Volkanovski moved up to 155 pounds to face current lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, in his last fight. Volkanovski fell short of his quest to dethrone Makhachev, but looked impressive enough in defeat to leave the door open for a rematch.

First, he has to get through Yair Rodriguez, who sliced through Josh Emmett to win the interim belt. Rodriguez has beaten four of his last five opponents, with his only loss coming to Max Holloway in a five-round unanimous decision. He will rely on his dynamic kickboxing to crack one of the most well-rounded champions in the sport. It’s hard to picture anyone beating Volkanovski at 145 pounds, and odds reflect the respect the current champion has earned in the betting market.

Alexander Volkanovski -350 vs. Yair Rodriguez +260

Let’s get the question on everyone’s mind out of the way early. Yes, Volkanovski is the rightful -350 favorite in this matchup. In my eyes, any value projected from the Rodriguez side at these odds are banking on Rodriguez putting him down with a highlight-reel kick or spinning elbow. In my eyes, the implied odds of just under 28% are a little generous considering the champion's advantages in the fight. Just because Volkanovski is deserving of the price tag doesn’t make it the most advantageous way for us to bet the fight.

Volkanovski has one of the best fight IQs in the game, and he is excellent at solving his opponents' striking tendencies very early on. That’s one of the main reasons his striking differential jumps off the page at 2.95 significant strikes per minute. By comparison, Rodriguez comes in at 0.75. The stark difference becomes even more pronounced when you size up significant strike totals versus recent common opponents.

Brian Ortega

  • Alexander Volkanovski 214-88

  • Yair Rodriguez 23-22

Max Holloway

  • Alexander Volkanovski 199-127

  • Yair Rodriguez 159-230

Chang Sung Jung a.k.a. "The Korean Zombie"

  • Alexander Volkanovski 138-48

  • Yair Rodriguez 119-126

Rodriguez is instant offense. He is very fluid on his feet with a penchant for producing lethal strikes from unorthodox launch points. There is no denying he is dangerous. However, if he is getting outlanded like the historical numbers are suggesting, he is going to be in big trouble early on. The key is that Rodriguez needs to operate at a distance to be effective. Even though Volkanovski has had success picking opponents apart from range, he isn’t reliant on fighting in any specific realm. He has the luxury of flipping the switch and dusting off his wrestling chops whenever he wants to really make Rodriguez uncomfortable.

Alexander Volkanovski returns to his corner during his fight against Islam Makhachev at UFC 284. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
Alexander Volkanovski returns to his corner during his fight against Islam Makhachev at UFC 284. (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images) (Chris Unger via Getty Images)

The gap between Volkanovski’s offensive wrestling and the defense grappling of Rodriguez is the most sizable advantage the champion holds. This is where the fight could end if Volkanovski gets top control and starts posturing up on his opponent. Rodriguez has done a better job defending takedowns in his last two fights but has allowed at least one in each of his last four. One could be all it takes for a fighter as technically sound as Volkanovski.

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Volkanovski try to close distance early, stifle Rodriguez up against the cage and do damage on the in-between exchanges or in the clinch. Unless the fight plays out in the optimal condition for the challenger (at range), I don’t see a path for El Pantera to pull off the upset. Against a less technical or less disciplined fighter, I’d be more open to an improbable result where a striker like Rodriguez can produce.

My eyes widened when I saw Volkanovski’s price to win inside the distance sitting at +125 on BetMGM. Volkanovski sounds like a man possessed with earning a rematch with Makhachev. The best way to convince UFC brass to make the fight is with an emphatic finish. I don’t think Volkanovski wastes any time in forcing this fight to occur in close quarters, wearing Rodriguez down and dragging him to where he is most vulnerable. From there, I question whether Rodriguez can survive with Volkanovski on top of him. My money is on the champ being all business. He knows how critical it is to get the job done without taking a lot of damage, in case he needs a quick turnaround to fight Makhachev. The Bet: Alexander Volkanovski by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission +125

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