UFC 290: How to bet Brandon Moreno-Alexandre Pantoja co-main event

Two world championships are on the line Saturday night at UFC 290. The main event features Alexander Volkanovski's fifth title defense since ending Max Holloway’s reign over the featherweight division in 2019. The second championship fight occurs in the always exciting flyweight division. In the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja will write another chapter in their rivalry. Despite the fact that flyweight fighters are slotted for second-billing, this is the fight that moves me the most. I’d confidently make it the odds-on favorite to be the most electrifying fight of the evening.

Brandon Moreno is currently a -190 favorite after opening at a slightly cheaper price point of -185 at BetMGM. The line has been relatively stable, peaking at -210 last weekend before support for Pantoja pushed it back toward the opening price. There are conflicting views on the underdog’s chances to pull off the upset, mainly because it’s the third time the two will compete in the Octagon, with Pantoja beating the current champion in both of the previous bouts. The 33-year-old challenger played a significant role in Moreno’s rise to the top of the flyweight division.

Pantoja’s wins against Moreno occurred on The Ultimate Fighter in 2016, followed by a victory via decision in 2018. Even though the first win wasn’t technically a professional fight, the high-stakes format of the show makes it more meaningful than your typical exhibition. The second win bounced Moreno out of the promotion, only for him to return a year later and propel himself to UFC gold by 2021.

Does Pantoja’s previous success make him a live underdog Saturday night? Or will the maturation of the champion make all the difference? Here are my best bets for Saturday night’s co-main event from a side and total perspective.

Brandon Moreno (-190) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+160)

Statistically, it’s jarring how similar these two fighters are in many ways. There is only a 2% difference in striking defense (56-54%), takedown accuracy is within 5% (40-45%), and both fighters have defended takedowns at a 67% rate throughout their careers. Pantoja is a bit more active, getting off slightly more significant strikes per minute (.70), while the taller Moreno holds a three-inch reach advantage. Parsing out the fighters on paper is the easy part, but it’s the intangibles that make Moreno the rightful favorite.

This is not the Moreno whom Pantoja beat five years ago. Moreno is now in his prime at age 29, while Pantoja is four years his senior. Moreno's confidence is at an all-time high after coming out victorious in a grueling "quadrilogy" against former champion Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno is battle-tested on a championship level, and the experience gained fighting wars against the division's elite holds much more weight than his loss to Pantoja as a 24-year-old up-and-comer. I love that it’s a revenge spot for Moreno. The history between the fighters safeguards the champ against exhaling too long after finally putting his rivalry with Figueiredo to rest.

I expect Pantoja’s energy and aggression to turn this fight into chaos early, but Moreno thrives in the mayhem. His reach should allow him to fire his jab consistently and mix up his combinations with kicks to keep Pantoja reacting as opposed to initiating. Pantoja has one speed, but I wonder how long he can maintain it when Moreno methodically sets him up to eat big shots. I predict we will see an adrenaline dump in the biggest fight of the challenger's career, allowing Moreno to enact revenge and retain his title. The fact that Pantoja has never been finished in 30 career fights allows us to get Moreno inside the distance prop at a valuable price (+200). Playing the champ on the money line at -190 is a solid way to bet on the fight, but I see more value in getting 2 to 1 for Moreno to continue his streak of four straight finishes. TheBet: Brandon Moreno by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission (+200)

Total: 3.5 rounds — Over (-190)/Under (+145)

In closely contested title fights, I can understand bettors' tendencies to lean to the over. The magnitude of the fight can lead to early nerves manifesting into a cautious approach with both fighters feeling each other out. At this level, considering the explosiveness of each fighter, one mistake could be enough to sabotage their chances. However, caution is just not in their DNA. These two fighters are a different breed and will enter the Octagon to leave it all on the line.

Expect fireworks from the opening bell. Pantoja steamrolled his last two opponents by finishing them in the early part of Rounds 1 and 2, while Moreno's last four wins were via finish in the first three rounds. The odds for betting the fight to end inside the distance are currently -140, allowing us to gain 17.5% in implied probability in exchange for the final 7.5 minutes of the fight. I will make that wager and bet the finish comes before the midpoint of Round 4. The Bet: Under 3.5 rounds (+145)