UFC 280: Will Charles Oliveira pull off the upset and reclaim the lightweight title?
There is nothing quite like a championship fight in Las Vegas, but Fight Island is the perfect destination for the most anticipated title fight of the year. The former UFC lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, is out to prove that even stripping him of the title cannot disrupt his reign as the most dominant fighter in the sport. Oliveira has accumulated the fifth-most wins in the UFC and sits alone as the record-holder for both finishing fights (19) and submission victories (16). There are very few fighters who have the résumé of Charles Oliveira.
Relinquishing his title (due to missing weight) was a bizarre twist to a truly incredible journey to the top of the division. Still, adversity didn't phase Oliveira before his bout with Justin Gaethje. It may have derailed him earlier in his career, but that fighter no longer exists. Whether stopping Dustin Poirier or strangling Gaethje into submission, Charles Oliveira proved he is the most dangerous fighter in the lightweight division.
However, on Saturday night against Islam Makhachev, he still finds himself as a sizable underdog (+150). The betting market's strong position on Makhachev, the protégé of Khabib Nurmagomedov, underscores a belief that he is the second coming of the former champion who recently retired from the sport undefeated. Nurmagomedov has long considered Makhachev the heir apparent to his crown, but are bettors too bullish on the dominant grappler from Dagestan? Or is he just another obstacle for Oliveira to overcome in his quest to regain UFC gold? Let's break down the main event as I detail why Charles Oliveira is the right side at UFC 280.
Charles Oliveira (+150) vs. Islam Makhachev (-185)
This fight is incredibly fun to handicap because of how contrasting these two fighters are on numerous levels. Oliveira's journey is what makes him special. He entered the UFC at age 21 and sputtered for seven years in the organization, enduring the lowest of lows before winning 11 straight fights. In comparison, Islam Makhachev is the chosen one who earned a title shot without facing a highly-ranked opponent. Both fighters are built to be champions, but they are built very differently.
When inside the Octagon, each of their win conditions reflects how they got here. Oliveira is an agent of chaos. He thrives in it. He is constantly coming forward, relentlessly attacking in numerous ways, striking and grappling, forcing his opponents to react defensively to multiple threats while he waits to pounce on one mistake. His fearless approach stems from his confidence that he can respond to any adversity the fight brings, whether in the form of a takedown or a knockdown. As long as the action is moving, he is at his best.
Islam Makhachev is the silencer. The Combat Sambo champion uses his suffocating wrestling to break his opponent's will by submitting or pounding them into defeat. The Dagestani has one direct path to victory, and there won't be any deviation from his objective. He will pressure until he can obtain positional control and end the fight. Makhachev's systematic approach is calm, still and deliberate. It's quite the contrast from Oliveira. Nurmagomedov has proven it can work against the division's best. The handicap comes down to your level of confidence Makhachev can execute it at an elite level amid the constant chaos Oliveira will inevitably bring to the fight.
Oliveira has a substantial striking advantage, but don't expect him to circle from the outside and avoid clinching with Makhachev. Oliveira is the ultimate chess player inside the Octagon. He throws his opponents in the fire and lures them to escape into an even deadlier situation. On the feet, he will test Makhachev with front kicks, elbows and crisp boxing combinations. Then, when it hits the mat, he will immediately attack with triangles and leg locks, intending to leverage Makhachev's response into a fight-ending sequence. His transitions make him so dangerous, making it appear like he has an algorithm feeding him multiple paths to victory in real-time. That's a massive edge to me against an extremely predictable and deliberate opponent like Makhachev.
Stopping Islam Makhachev from imposing his will be a massive challenge. It would be overly optimistic for me to think Oliveira doesn't end up on his back at some point. However, I have confidence that, more times than not, Oliveira will be active enough to survive and avoid getting trapped against the fence in full guard. That's where the fight begins, and we'll see how Makhachev handles getting pushed to his limits. Athletes speak about how the game slows down when they don't have to think anymore, and Oliveira's constant attacks never allow his opponents that benefit. The ability to control the chaos will be the difference in this fight.
I think we have a situation where the market is giving too much credit to Makhachev at this price, and I am willing to risk Oliveira can put him in places he has never been before. It's always uneasy going against the fighter with the most dominant trait, which is undoubtedly Makhachev's grappling. But I am comfortable that Oliveira's experience forces Makhachev to show more. I would bet Oliveira to win inside the distance, but there isn't value as the odds mirror his moneyline price of +150 at BetMGM. So let's grab the moneyline and cash in as Oliveira punishes his doubters one more time.
