UFC 256 betting preview: Tony Ferguson vs. Charles Oliveira
LAS VEGAS — Tony Ferguson and Charles Oliveira have been in the UFC for nearly a decade together, but they’ll meet for the first time on Saturday at Apex in the co-main event of UFC 256.
Oliveira is looking to break into the lightweight division’s elite ranks and there is no better way to do that than to score a victory over Ferguson. A former interim champion, Ferguson had won 12 in a row and 18 of 19 heading into UFC 249 against Justin Gaethje.
Gaethje was a late replacement and a big underdog, but he stopped Ferguson in the fifth round, handing Ferguson his first loss since a unanimous decision to Michael Johnson on May 5, 2012.
The Gaethje loss was a rough, physical one for Ferguson, and it opened some eyes that he was ready to come back in seven months after the punishment he absorbed.
Ferguson insisted he’s healthy and ready, and the videos he posted of his training would suggest that is the case.
This is a fascinating match that will carry great significance within the division. A loss would push the loser’s title hopes back at least six months, if not a year.
Ferguson is a -165 favorite, while Oliveira is a +140 underdog at BetMGM. The only proposition on the fight is whether it will go the distance. Yes is +145 while no is -175.
I think Ferguson’s striking and pressure will be the difference, so I’m going to lay one unit on him to win at $165, hoping to make a $100 profit. I will also play one unit on the fight not going the distance. I’ll lay the $175 and hope to win $100.
Other bets:
Junior dos Santos is probably looking at his last chance in the UFC if he loses, particularly if he is stopped. He is a +333 underdog at BetMGM New Jersey against Cyril Gane, who is -450. Dos Santos has been KO’d in his last three fights. But I think he comes up big against Gane, so I’ll play two units on him at $200 hoping to win $666.
A pair of jiu-jitsu specialists will lock up when Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba meet. I think Dern will win, and she’s -185 at the BetMGM site, but I don’t want to lay that. So I’ll lay -155 and bet one unit that the fight does not go the distance.
It’s a big step up for him, but I think Kevin Holland makes a statement with a win over Jacare Souza. I will lay two units on Holland at even money to hopefully make a $200 profit.
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