U.S. military sexual assault rates 2 to 4 times higher than government estimates, study says

The number of sexual assaults in the U.S. military is likely two to four times higher than government estimates, according to a new study out of Brown University.

The study, completed by the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute, compared Defense Department data on sexual assaults with data that was not from the DOD to estimate sexual assault figures in the military since 2001.

“During and beyond the 20 years of the post-9/11 wars, independent data suggest that actual sexual assault prevalence is two to four times higher than DoD estimations — 75,569 cases in 2021 and 73,695 cases in 2023,” the authors wrote in the report, which was released Wednesday.

Defense Department figures estimate that there were approximately 35,900 cases in 2021 and around 29,000 military personnel assaulted in 2023, the study said.

The Brown report said that independent studies show higher estimates of the number of active-duty service members experiencing sexual assault, and it compared those studies with Defense Department numbers.

“This report highlights a middle range — two to four times higher than DoD estimates — as likely providing the most accurate numbers,” it said.

A Defense Department spokesperson said it would "be inappropriate to comment on the methodology of studies not conducted by the Department."

"The department continues our sustained progress to build strong command climates and prevent sexual assault, assist sexual assault survivors with recovery, and hold alleged offenders appropriately accountable," the spokesperson added. "Sexual violence will not be tolerated, condoned, or ignored within our ranks. Everything we are doing in this space is focused on helping us make lasting, meaningful change." 

Among those mentioned in the report is Vanessa Guillén, a soldier at Fort Hood (now Fort Cavazos), Texas, who had reported sexual harassment at the base and who officials say was later killed by another soldier, Spc. Aaron Robinson.

Guillén’s April 2020 killing sparked calls for military reform and, in 2022, Congress passed the “I Am Vanessa Guillén Act” that changed the way the military handles sexual abuse-related investigations and allegations.

Another soldier at Fort Hood,  Elder Fernandes, died by suicide in 2020 after experiencing what the Army said was "abusive sexual contact."

The Costs of War Project report comes a year after a Pentagon report found that reports of sexual assault at the nation’s three military academies rose more than 18% from 2021 to 2022, hitting a new high.

A 2021 Congressional Research Service report said there was some evidence that a majority of sexual offenses in the military are not being reported.

The I am Vanessa Guillén Act removed military commanders from the equation when it comes to sexual assault investigations and puts the investigation in the hands of independent prosecutors.

The Costs of War Project report calls that change "the largest change to the UCMJ since the military created its own legal system in 1950," referring to the Uniform Code of Military Justice.

The report faults the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan following the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as putting the long-standing issue of sexual assault, racism and other discrimination secondary to force readiness.

"In the Secretary of the Army’s own words, going to war has prevented the military from institutionally reckoning with its shameful longstanding epidemic of sexual assault," the authors wrote.