Typhoon In-fa may produce catastrophic impacts along China's east coast

This satellite clip shows Typhoon In-fa spinning off the eastern coast of China Saturday night, local time. (CIRA/RAMMB)

Typhoon In-fa was rumbling toward the eastern coast of China on Sunday morning, local time, and the typhoon will likely bring catastrophic impacts to the region, including the major port city of Shanghai.

While the storm is currently forecast to strengthen as it tracks to the north-northwest through Sunday, it may encounter some difficulties as it moves into a harsher environment for tropical systems.

"Typhoon In-fa will be running into an area of increased wind shear this weekend," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert. "This will keep the storm from rapidly increasing in strength as it approaches eastern China."

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AccuWeather meteorologists expect In-fa to top out at the equivalent of a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, with 10-minute sustained winds of 96-110 mph (154-177 km/h) as it passes to the northeast of Taiwan.

As some of the outer rainbands impact the northern portion of Taiwan, rainfall totals can reach as high as 4-8 inches (100-200 mm) with higher totals likely in the tallest mountains. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph (60-100 km/h) are expected in northern Taiwan, although some areas will be protected from the highest winds by the rugged terrain.

The most substantial impacts are forecast to occur along the east-central coast of China as the storm approaches landfall late in the day on Sunday or early Monday morning, local time.

In-fa can begin to lose some wind intensity late this weekend as it approaches the coast of China's Zhejiang province and begins to interact with the rugged terrain.

However, wind gusts of up to 100-120 mph (160-190 km/h) are still possible along and to the east of where the eye of In-fa moves onshore. This same area is also where the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 130 mph (210 km/h) is most likely to occur.

Strong wind gusts from In-fa can cause damage to homes and businesses, topple trees and create power outages. Additionally, widespread flooding and storm surge can wreak havoc across this portion of eastern China.

Once In-fa reaches the Chinese coast, it is forecast to lose forward momentum. As the storm spins near the coast from late Sunday into Tuesday, local time, it can pull in more moisture from the East China Sea. This, working together with the terrain of the region and the storm sitting over the same area for several days, can produce widespread rainfall totals of 18-24 inches (450-600 mm) along the coastal region of Zhejiang province with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 48 inches (1,200 mm).

Located to the north of In-fa's expected landfall, Shanghai is forecast to receive 12-18 inches (300-450 inches) of rain with wind gusts of 60-80 mph (100-130 km/h). The strongest winds are most likely to occur late Sunday or early Monday, local time, before the storm begins to lose wind intensity.

In addition to record-breaking rainfall, as strong winds on the northern side of In-fa drive onto the northern coast of Zhejiang, it can push water from the East China Sea inland, creating significant and long-lasting coastal flooding and beach erosion along exposed beaches and harbors.

"Should In-fa stall nearby, coastal flooding around Shanghai and nearby cities could cause significant damage," warned AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda.

This amount of rainfall and anticipated flooding can be catastrophic to the region, but impacts from In-fa might be felt globally as port operations in Shanghai and Ningbo grind to a halt.

According to Lloyd's List, container pickups and deliveries have been suspended in the Shanghai and Ningbo ports in preparation for Typhoon In-fa's arrival.

Additionally, all passenger flights coming in and out of the Shanghai Pudong Airport and Hongqiao Airport on July 25 are canceled as a result of the storm, according to China Daily.

Due to catastrophic impacts expected from torrential rainfall, strong winds and rough seas which can have drastic economic impacts, In-fa has been rated as a 5 on the AccuWeather RealImpact® Scale.

The RealImpact™ Scale is a 6-point scale with ratings of less than one and 1 to 5 and is based on a broad range of important factors in contrast to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms by wind speed only.

In order to better communicate a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods, the scale covers not only wind speed, but also flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.

In-fa first arrived over the southern and central Ryukyu Islands, along with heavy rain and strong wind gusts, late on Tuesday, July 22.

As of Friday night, local time, the typhoon had already produced 3.85 inches (98 mm) of rain in the island of Yonaguni since Wednesday and wind gusts of 58 mph (93 km/h). In Naha, rainfall totals from In-fa were up to 9.02 inches (230 mm) since Wednesday.

Heavy flooding began to occur on Saturday in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China, as the typhoon approached, causing a bridge to collapse. Cars were also seen floating above the road in floodwaters, and emergency services began conducting rescue observations for residents amid the flooding.

All flights on Sunday have been canceled at the Pudong and Hongqiang airports in Shanghai due to Typhoon In-fa.

As In-fa spins along the eastern coast of China through the beginning of next week, an area of sinking air will develop farther inland to balance out the rising air associated with the storm. This sinking air will help to bring drier conditions to Henan province, which was doused with historic rainfall earlier in the week.

The West Pacific will remain active beyond In-fa. AccuWeather forecasters are also closely monitoring newly formed Tropical Storm Nepartak, which is forecast to track toward Japan early this upcoming week and may cause disruptions to the Tokyo Olympics. Enhanced rainfall will likely occur across northern Japan.

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