These two California Central Valley races could tip US House control. How tight are they?

Two of the nation’s closest congressional races that will determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives drew even closer, updated returns released Friday evening show.

Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, caught up with farmer John Duarte, a Republican, in California’s 13th Congressional District. Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, shortened the lead of Congressman David Valadao, R-Hanford, in the 22nd.

Gray, 45, and Duarte, 56, each had 50% of the votes with more than 61% counted, according to the Associated Press. Duarte held a slight 84-vote lead.

Valadao’s lead shrank with over 53% of votes counted, per the AP. The 45-year-old had 52.5% of the votes.

The races in the 13th and 22nd were considered toss-ups by independent analysts leading up to the November midterms. With control of the House in the balance, a win for either party in the Central Valley could determine whether a Democrat or Republican holds the speaker’s gavel.

Control of the U.S. House

Republicans did not match analysts’ expectations of a “red wave” on Tuesday night, but they are still expected to take a slim majority of seats.

A party needs 218 seats to hold the majority. As of Friday, Democrats had 201 and Republicans had 211. Most of the uncalled races are in California.

“The House is really going to come down to California,” David Wasserman, an editor of the election-tracking Cook Political Report, said on MSNBC Friday.

It might take days, or weeks, for winners in the Central Valley to emerge — and to provide a clear picture of partisan balance in the House.

California’s 13th Congressional District

The new 13th formed through redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative lines, covers all of Merced County in a stretch from Lathrop past Coalinga, taking in half of Modesto and Turlock. Registered Democrats have an edge over Republicans.

Gray, a moderate Democrat, has represented much of the area in the Assembly since 2012, focusing on water issues and infrastructure and bolstering Central Valley health care.

Duarte, who is from Modesto, operates Duarte Nursery in Hughson, and similarly is concerned with water access as well as oil prices and increasing American drilling.

California’s 22nd Congressional District

The new 22nd runs from Hanford to Shafter. There are more Democrats than Republicans registered there, and voters there would have picked Biden in 2020 by 13 percentage points.

The race between Valadao and Salas generated the most television advertisements by far of any House race in the country leading up to the election, per the Wesleyan Media Project.

Valadao, a moderate, prioritizes water and agricultural issues. The Hanford dairy farmer was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump over the 2021 insurrection on the U.S. Capitol. If he wins, he will be one of two left in Congress.

Salas, also a moderate, has long been buzzed-about among Democrats as a possible congressional candidate. The 45-year-old has represented the area in the Assembly since 2012, working on health care access and affordability. He would be the San Joaquin Valley’s first Latino House member if elected.

Both the 13th and 22nd have a Hispanic-majority voting age population. While there was some pull to the right among Hispanic voters in the midterms, it was not an overwhelming shift. In California, 67% of Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate in their House elections, while 31% went for Republicans, according to the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll sponsored by the Latino Community Foundation among a dozen partners.

Central Valley races

Two other Central Valley congressional elections have yet to be called. It looks like the Democrat in each will win.

Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, is outpacing San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, in California’s 9th Congressional District. Harder had more than 56% of the votes with 47% counted.

Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, leads Republican Michael Maher, a businessman and Navy veteran, in California’s 21st Congressional District. Costa had almost 55% of the votes with more than 75% counted.

Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, won their races on election night, per the AP. The next day, McCarthy, 57, announced his bid to become Speaker of the House.