Trump's MAGA rivalry with establishment GOP to play out in debate, rally split-screen
Wearing a T-shirt bearing Abraham Lincoln's face, Gregg Smyth said the 16th president and the 45th president, Donald Trump, are simply at chronological ends of the same political lineage.
"It all started with Abe Lincoln," said the Boca Raton resident as he waited for Trump to speak at a rally in West Palm Beach last month. "He freed the slaves. Trump is freeing the children."
But as he articulated his anti-abortion views, and his repulsion with exploitative human trafficking, Smyth's stated allegiance to Trump veered away from fealty to traditional party politics. In fact, Smyth said he's not even a registered Republican — he is a Democrat who grew up admiring John F. Kennedy.
Smyth then recounted how he soured on partisan politics and now identifies as a member of a movement — Trump's — that sees mainstream politicians "as padding their pockets" at the citizenry's expense.
"Definitely Trump," he said of why he remains engaged in the political arena. "Republicans, Democrats, it's the same fraternity. It's the same thing."
Tension between Trump movement, GOP establishment to play out in Miami
The rivalry between Trump's movement and GOP party politics has been present since the golden escalator moment — the day more than eight years ago when the then-New York City real estate mogul and reality TV star descended to the lobby floor of his midtown Manhattan tower to announce his 2016 presidential candidacy.
Throughout his presidency, Trump fan clubs sprouted, at times in competition and clashes with official GOP chapters, and his followers often referred to themselves as "Trumplicans" or "America First" patriots or, simply, as MAGA, the acronym for Trump's political catchphrase "Make America Great Again." It was a campaign slogan first used by Ronald Reagan during his 1980 presidential run.
The friction will be on display again Wednesday evening when the party's governing body, the Republican National Committee, hosts a third debate, this one in downtown Miami. The current field of 2024 GOP White House hopefuls will be there, minus the leading candidate, Trump.
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The former president will be about 11 miles away, holding a rally in Hialeah, with his own followers, including many who, like Smyth, at times tend to view the Republican Party almost with as much suspicion, disdain and contempt as the rival Democrats.
Trump has often referred to his brand of politics as a "movement," with the core features being the MAGA slogan and the America First brand, which drive a level of enthusiasm, devotion and loyalty that is uncharacteristic in U.S. politics.
"I will tell you that Make America Great Again, MAGA, and America First, and all of the things that we talk about there's never been more spirit," Trump boasted in July. "There's never been more spirit than we have right now."
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The rally competing with the official RNC debate is a test of wills and popularity, since surveys of GOP voters consistently show Trump with 30-plus point leads over his closest rivals, Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Wesley Borucki, associate professor of history at Palm Beach Atlantic University, said he is not surprised that the former president enjoys such wide leads in pre-2024 primary polling.
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Borucki has been watching Trump's political universe expand since the 2022 midterm election disappointment when key candidates Trump backed failed to win their races. Rather than fade into history, or obscurity, he said the Trump base again has exuberantly coalesced around the former president.
"It has gained momentum where it's now a movement again," Borucki said.
And what is fueling that momentum, Borucki said, are some of the same elements that catapulted Trump into the White House seven years ago — the appeal to what the former president has called the "forgotten" Americans.
Borucki points to the way overseas crises in Ukraine and Israel captivate national attention and priorities, but the plight of small U.S. communities, from the fire-ravaged Hawaiian town of Lahaina to the toxic mess from a train derailment in East Palestine, an Ohio village, suffer from neglect.
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"There's a growing perception that people here are not being taken care of," he said. "That's adding fire to the momentum."
The indictments filed against Trump, he added, give rise to the view that the governing political class "fears" Trump, and is using its power to try to erase him. "All that is going to fuel the Trump insurgency even more," Borucki added.
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Trump has led a realignment in the GOP ... is it 'America First'?
Borucki adds that Trump's "movement" reflects what he views as a "realignment" within the two main political parties, Republicans especially. The result is the party's bedrock principles have been in a battle, pitting traditional Republicans who favor post-World War II free trade and global alliances, against 21st-century populism led by Trump that is more protectionist.
"That's the dichotomy and it's part of this realignment," he said.
For Maria Alexander, a U.S. Army veteran, the "dichotomy" is not much of a contest.
"I'm not so much Republican as I am a true Trump supporter," said Alexander, a Wellington resident who was at Trump's Club 47 speech at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in October. "I share his vision and I know his heart is in the right place."
That vision includes a more inward-looking focus on the needs within the United States.
"Being America First is the only way to be," said Alexander. "It doesn't mean that we hate or we denigrate other nations but we have to take care of our own first. And that really resonates with me."
And, she said, a revolt against what is political persecution using the legal system.
"I think he's been ... the retaliation against him, is what makes me more of a diehard, loyal Trump supporter," she said.
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But while Trump has reenergized his base, questions remain whether he — or any Republican leader — can unify a party bifurcated by personalities, ideology and public policy.
Trump remains the dominant figure, but he still polls under 50% of GOP voters in some surveys and just over half in others. That's a sharp contrast with his popularity ratings that topped 90% when he was president.
Pollsters like Kevin Wagner at Florida Atlantic University have cautioned in the past that Trump's seemingly lower polling in 2023, in contrast with, say, four years ago, reflects the presence of other candidates in the race. But signs of deep divisions between Capitol Hill Republicans, even among those backing Trump, have become apparent.
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The House Republican caucus suffered through a weeks-long drama after the unprecedented ouster of former speaker Kevin McCarthy. His successor, Mike Johnson, has now moved a more limited Israeli aid package that drew sharp criticism from a fellow MAGA stalwart, Georgia Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
In the U.S. Senate, MAGA Republican Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is drawing fire from fellow Trump-supporting Lyndsey Graham of South Carolina over the former's blocking of military promotions over abortion policy. Senate Republicans are also facing a battle with their counterparts in the U.S. House over military support for Ukraine and a looming government shutdown vote this month.
At a Florida GOP forum this past weekend, tensions between those who support Trump and those who don't were on a full display when presidential candidates like Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie were jeered, heckled and booed. The former New Jersey governor, Christie, shot back telling the crowd "your anger against the truth is reprehensible."
It's not just candidate preferences that create a divide. On issues like abortion and 2020 election-denying, far-right positions have proven costly for Republican candidates. All of these issues, political analysts say, offer fodder for Democrats and others to draw away Republicans uncomfortable with the Trump policy menu and rhetoric.
Rick Wilson of the Lincoln Project, founded by so-called "Never Trump" Republicans, said they are readying their campaign to again pull away "disaffected" Republican voters and conservative-leaning independents who generally vote for GOP candidates.
In 2020, Wilson said, they managed to lure 5% of them away from Trump to Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Then, in 2022, Wilson said they helped win 17 races nationally using the same targeting model and messaging they have developed since forming in 2019.
"In 2024, we will do that again," Wilson said. "We understand how to speak to those people in their native language of Republican while making sure they understand there is a place for them to go politically and not feel boxed in or have to support Donald Trump as he becomes increasingly politically and morally unacceptable to them."
Wilson said the Lincoln Project's efforts succeed because they are not trying to "convert the hardest-core MAGAs" but rather those people he said are "disturbed" by Trump and Trumpism and "who do not like the violence, who do not like Jan. 6, and the extremism and conspiracy theories" associated with the former president.
"We are pushing to get those people to stand with the pro-democracy forces in this country and oppose Donald Trump one last time," he said.
Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Trump MAGA rivalry with GOP to play out in debate, rally competition
