Trump won Indiana, but 1 in 5 voters chose Nikki Haley. Should Republicans worry?

It was clear long before Tuesday’s primary election in Indiana who would win the Republican and Democratic presidential races, as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump secured the delegates for their party’s nominations nearly two months ago.

Biden ran unopposed on Democratic ballots in the Hoosier State and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley dropped out of the Republican contest following Super Tuesday in March, leaving Trump to sweep up the rest of primary season.

Trump handily won the Republican race in Indiana on Tuesday with 78% of the vote, but it was Haley’s performance as a non-candidate that turned heads of political watchers in what has been a reliable Trump state. Haley was still on Republican ballots Tuesday after making the filing deadline in early February and pulled nearly 22% of the vote statewide. The last time Haley hit above 20% in a contest against Trump was the day before she ended her campaign, and since then she has won much lower percentages in battleground states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

But Haley performed even better than that in some of central Indiana’s suburban communities where populations are growing and the voter base can skew more moderate in political views. On Tuesday, Haley won 34% of the Republican vote in Hamilton County and 32% of the vote in Boone County just north of Indianapolis, an area that Democrats have targeted for several years as a path to breaking the Republican supermajority at the Statehouse.

As eyes shift to November, some campaigns and political experts question if Haley’s showing Tuesday could be a warning sign for both Trump in more competitive states and down-ballot Indiana candidates who want to ride the former president’s coattails in a state he won easily in 2016 and 2020. In Indiana specifically, a Trump victory is all but inevitable because Trump dominated in this same match up four years ago. But, that's not necessarily the case for local candidates in more competitive wings of the state.

It's also not clear who exactly these voters were that selected Haley: Democrats pulling a Republican ballot, Republicans hoping to get a message across that they don't like Trump or voters who simply didn't realize Haley had already dropped out. Or perhaps a combination of all three.

A Trump campaign official in an email to IndyStar suggested Democrats in races earlier this year "were more than happy" to vote for Haley. In Indiana, the political action committee ReCenter Indiana put up billboards around the state reminding Democrats that they could vote in the Republican primary, and some Democratic voters took that suggestion on Tuesday.

U.S. Senator Mike Braun, who saw a decisive victory in the Republican gubernatorial primary with Trump’s endorsement, said it will be important to appeal to everyone in the party leading up to November, including voters that supported Haley. Trump’s support doesn’t hurt, especially in Indiana, but Braun said his individual record in the Senate is what he believes helped him defeat five other Republicans on Tuesday.

“The agenda that was in place pre-COVID, when you look at that, I think that’s what is going to win (Trump) the victory this November,” Braun said. “It’s an honor to have that support, but I’ve been independent my entire life and how I do things and I will be running this race.”

Does Nikki Haley's primary performance signal an opportunity for Democrats?

Some of the counties across the state where Haley performed well are communities that Biden won in 2020, such as Tippecanoe County where Purdue University is located. These are also areas where controversial candidates have not succeeded in past elections.

For example, President Joe Biden won over Trump in the city of Carmel in 2020 and Destiny Wells won in Carmel over Diego Morales in the 2022 Secretary of State race following allegations that Morales exaggerated his military experience and sexually assaulted two women, which he denied.

These past examples and Haley’s success across the state Tuesday, are warning signs for Republicans about suburban voters, and not just in Indiana, said Chad Kinsella, an associate professor of political science at Ball State University.

“These are critical, critical voters,” Kinsella said. “If Trump doesn't do well at the top of the ticket. It's going to hurt everybody on down.”

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Indiana Democrats are aware of this and see opportunities in the areas where Haley achieved more votes than expected. State Democratic Party Chair Mike Schmuhl said the dissatisfaction with Trump, especially in suburban communities, is something for Democrats to capitalize on.

“The Republican ticket is going to be Donald Trump, Mike Braun, Jim Banks and Todd Rokita and that is like the MAGA starting lineup,” Schmuhl said. “I think that in places like central Indiana, that's just a turnoff for folks. It's not really exciting or inspiring for voters.”

Democrats, though, have to give voters something to vote for, Schmuhl said, and the party believes former Republican schools superintendent Jennifer McCormick in the governor’s race and psychologist Valerie McCray in the U.S. Senate race are stark comparisons to Braun and U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, the Republicans in those races. Both face an uphill battle against far better-funded candidates in a red state that hasn't elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 2012.

“Donald Trump every single day is sitting in a courtroom somewhere,” Schmuhl said. “There’s just this negative feeling in our politics nationally that is permeating down the ballot, and I think it shows that he’s a flawed candidate.”

But Biden does not have the highest favorability either heading into November. Pew Research found in late April that 35% of Americans approve of Biden's performance in the White House while 62% disapprove. The president's approval rating is even lower — just 6% — among Republicans and individuals leaning Republican, according to the Pew report.

Trump’s popularity remains high

While Haley’s primary success sparks questions about down-ballot Republican races, this is Indiana.

Trump won the state in the general presidential elections in 2016 and 2020, beating Biden by 16 percentage points. Just this year, a March poll from Emerson College Polling found the former president’s favorability remains high with Hoosiers as 55% of registered voters surveyed at the time supported Trump over 34% for Biden.

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The Trump campaign official dismissed Haley's performance in an email to IndyStar, writing that the former president spent no money or resources on a primary campaign after clinching the needed delegates in March.

“With the enthusiasm of Republicans, the failed policies of weak Biden, and as polling indicates, we will win Indiana and the White House in November,” the campaign official wrote.

Republicans can also look to municipal elections just six months ago in some of the suburban communities where Haley performed well. In 2023, local Democratic candidates won just two races across all of Hamilton County.

In Carmel, specifically, then-candidate Sue Finkam saw a significant 14 percentage-point win in the mayor’s race and Republicans nearly swept the Carmel City Council races. Republicans also gained a seat on the Fishers City Council last year.

Kory Wood, a Republican consultant who worked on Finkam's campaign, said down-ballot Republicans should not be concerned about Haley's performance across Indiana. Candidates in the areas where Haley pulled above 30% should focus on local issues rather than engage in some of the national debates that appear in campaigns. That's what Finkam did with the mayor's race in Carmel, Wood said.

Primary elections are intended to give voters choices, Wood said. Because of that, the vote for Haley in the primary isn't necessarily indicative of a party-wide struggle come November, he said.

"At the end of the day, when we're going into ballot boxes in November, Republicans are going to are going to get behind the Republican nominee, because our policies are better," Wood said. "They're better leaders and our Republican policies connect better with with voters, especially in the Hoosier State."

IndyStar reporter Kayla Dwyer contributed to this story.

Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at brittany.carloni@indystar.com or 317-779-4468. Follow her on Twitter/X@CarloniBrittany.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Donald Trump won Indiana primary. Is Nikki Haley's success a concern?