Tropical Storm Fiona heads to the Caribbean. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands under storm watch

Tropical Storm Fiona is now forecast to approach hurricane strength in the Caribbean early next week, after Hurricane Hunters found a stronger storm than expected.

Tropical storm watches were issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Thursday afternoon, joining a suite of watches and warnings for the Leeward Islands, where Fiona is expected to dump heavy rains Friday and over the weekend.

The forecast shows Fiona, which formed late Wednesday and is the sixth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, moving Friday night through the Leeward Islands, which are under tropical storm watches and warnings. It’s then expected to move near the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Saturday into Sunday, forecasters say, before advancing near Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) this weekend and early next week.

The National Hurricane Center says more tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be issued for parts of Hispaniola on Friday.

The forecast shows the storm then turning northwest by early next week, but forecasters aren’t yet clear what impacts Florida may see.

Here’s what else to know about Fiona:

Where is Fiona now? Will it get stronger?

Fiona was about 355 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands and quickly moving west at 15 mph, according to the hurricane center’s 11 p.m. Thursday advisory. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the northern Leeward Islands the following night.

Hurricane Hunters found high winds, so Fiona’s maximum sustained winds are now estimated at 60 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane center’s forecast track shows Fiona staying at tropical storm strength through early next week. But there is uncertainty on how strong it will get.

There’s quite a bit of wind shear, which slows down storms, surrounding Fiona, yet the storm has stayed surprisingly strong.

“Fiona’s current intensity is a testament to its resilience in the face of the shear it has experienced over the past 24 hours,” the hurricane center wrote in the 11 a.m. update.

Forecasters said this could mean Fiona will strengthen a little more in the coming days, although the hurricane center does not currently predict Fiona will become a hurricane.

The most important factor over the next few days is when Fiona will make a northern turn. Hurricane models offer split predictions, but the hurricane center’s prediction shows Fiona keeping south of the U.S. Virgin Islands and then shooting the gap between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Monday. From there, the storm is predicted to curve further northwest, toward the easternmost edge of the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Fiona watches and warnings

Tropical storm warnings are in place for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. The areas are part of the Leeward Islands, which are at the border of the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical storm watches were issued for Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands.

What will Fiona bring to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola?

“Heavy rains from Fiona will reach the northern Leeward Islands Friday afternoon, spreading to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday into Sunday morning, and reaching eastern Hispaniola Sunday,” the National Hurricane Center said. “This rainfall may produce considerable flood impacts including flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.”

The hurricane center expects Fiona will drop a total of four to six inches of rain in the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with some isolated areas possibly seeing up to 10 inches. Eastern Hispaniola is in for a bit more rain at four to eight inches, with as much as a foot in some spots.

The islands have seen quite a bit of recent rainfall, and the rain-soaked soil could lead to flooding or dangerous mudslides.

”These rains may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain,” the hurricane center said. “Considerable flood impacts are possible across eastern portions of Puerto Rico.”

Localized coastal flooding will be possible along the coasts of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in areas of onshore winds Saturday into Sunday. Swells generated by Fiona were affecting the Leeward Islands Thursday night, the hurricane center said, and are expected to spread west to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday, possibly causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.