Tropical Depression 4 expected to strengthen over southeastern Gulf of Mexico

A storm hovering over Cuba will take aim at Florida's west coast and the Gulf of Mexico, with federal forecasters saying it's likely to become a tropical storm by late Saturday.

Until then, the front is being called Tropical Depression Four, with the name Debby available should it graduate to tropical storm.

Maximum sustained winds of 35 mph kept it below the 39 mph threshold for tropical storm status Saturday morning. But that will likely change by night time when it will strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said in update Saturday morning. It was 40 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba, at 11 a.m. ET.

The front graduated from Potential Tropical Depression Four to Tropical Depression Four on Friday night as it gained strength over warm Caribbean waters.

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for an area along the coast from Indian Pass to the Aucilla River. There's a tropical storm warning for the west coast of Florida, from its southern tip up to southern Yankeetown. The warning means winds of 39 to 73 mph are expected in the next day or so, along with a storm surge, coastal flooding, and heavy rain.

Much of that area, including Tampa Bay, was also covered by a storm surge watch, which warns of the possibility of life-threatening flooding as coastal waters and other waterways flood and surge and move over dry land.

A tropical storm watch is also in effect for some areas, including the Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge.

The hurricane center said the front would move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and reach Florida's Gulf Coast late Sunday or Monday, bringing with it 2 to 5 feet of storm surge flooding in some areas, 5 to 10 inches of rain in others, with up to 15 inches possible across parts of the southeast coast this weekend through Thursday.

"Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday morning," the NHC said on X Saturday.

Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with some higher amounts possible, is possible in Cuba.

"A faster rate of strengthening is expected Sunday through Monday, and the system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf coast," the NHC said.

Sandbags were being distributed across the state, including in Miami Lakes, Tampa, and St. Petersburg.

The depression could be the fourth named storm of the North Atlantic hurricane season a little ahead of schedule, with the average date for a fourth named storm to develop being Aug. 15, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.

However, the northern hemisphere has otherwise been relatively quiet, he said on X last month. It produced six named storms by mid-July, the fewest through mid-July since 1969.