Trone tops Alsobrooks by double digits in Maryland Democratic Senate primary race: Survey

Rep. David Trone (D-Md.) leads Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by double digits in the Democratic primary for the Maryland Senate race, according to a new poll.

The survey, released by FOX45 News, the Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore and conducted by OpinionWorks, found Trone leading Alsobrooks, 48 percent to 29 percent, when respondents are asked to consider the entire Democratic primary field.

However, when Trone and Alsobrooks are put in a head-to-head matchup, Trone receives 50 percent support among Democratic primary respondents while Alsobrooks receives 38 percent.

On the GOP side, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holds a large double-digit lead with 69 percent support among Republican primary respondents, followed by 12 percent who are undecided or not sure and 9 percent who support former Del. Robin Ficker (R).

When Hogan and Trone are placed in a hypothetical matchup, the former Maryland governor leads the House Democrat, 53 percent to 40 percent. Hogan holds a wider lead over Alsobrooks, 54 percent to 36 percent.

Though it’s less than seven months before the general election in November and the Democratic primary has not yet occurred, the fact that Trone is lagging behind Hogan by 13 points is notable given that the House Democrat has poured $40 million into the race so far, according to The Baltimore Sun.

Hogan likely also enjoys a larger name recognition than Trone and Alsobrooks as someone who’s been elected statewide before.

Some earlier polling has shown a tighter matchup between both Trone and Alsobrooks. For example, a Goucher College poll released earlier this month showed Trone leading Alsobrooks 42 percent to 33 percent.

The Goucher College poll also found Hogan edging Trone by a point in a head-to-head match, while it showed Hogan edging Alsobrooks by 4 points.

Trone’s campaign projected confidence about his electoral prospects, telling The Hill in a statement, “Voters across the state continue to respond to David Trone’s proven track record as the only candidate who can put people over politics and deliver real change in the United States Senate.”

“David Trone is the only candidate with the message and resources to take on Larry Hogan in November and we look forward to continuing to communicate with voters across the state as the primary approaches,” it added.

Meanwhile, Alsobrooks’s campaign maintained that the race was a “dead heat.”

“This race is a dead heat — that’s what our data and independent polling shows and we know the more Marylanders learn about Angela, she is the candidate they overwhelmingly support,” Alsobrooks campaign manager Sheila O’Connell said in a statement to The Hill.

In a statement shared on X by Hogan campaign spokeswoman Blake Kernen, the former governor argued that he is still the underdog in the Senate race.

“Over the course of our bus tour, I had the opportunity to speak with Marylanders from all over the state and from all walks of life. People are completely fed up with politics as usual, and are ready to send a message to Washington,” Hogan said.

“But make no mistake, we are the underdog in this race. With the establishment lined up against us, we can’t take anything for granted. Nobody will outwork us,” he continued. “They were expecting a coronation–but what they are going to get is the fight of their lives.”

Hogan is considered one of Senate Republicans’ best recruits this cycle, putting a blue state into play for the GOP.

Still, the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-Md.) seat “likely Democrat,” and it’s been over three decades since a Republican was able to win a federal statewide election in the Old Line State, according to Roll Call – proving the Maryland Senate race will still be hard-fought.

The latest polling was conducted between April 7 and April 10 with 1,292 general election voters surveyed in total. The margin of error is plus 3 percentage points.

The respondents included 600 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Some 451 likely Republican primary voters were also surveyed with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.

Updated at 1:32 p.m.

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