With trade talks brewing, a look at how Utah’s Mitchell and Heat’s Herro really compare

As the Heat has pursued a Donovan Mitchell trade in recent weeks, we’ve fielded the question from several readers: Is he really that much better than Tyler Herro?

“He’s absolutely better, but he’s not enormously better where it’s a no-brainer considering all the other assets Utah would want,” one Western Conference scout said. “I would make the trade, but it’s not a no-brainer.”

Keep in mind that any trade involving Herro and Mitchell would involve other Heat assets, including multiple first-round picks, Duncan Robinson and perhaps Nikola Jovic or Omer Yurtseven. Utah is unimpressed with those Heat assets, per the Salt Lake Tribune.

The Knicks are reportedly the front-runner because they can offer as many as eight first-round picks; the Heat can offer only three. The Jazz reportedly wants an historical haul of picks.

According to the Salt Lake Tribune, at least one person in Utah’s front office prefers Herro over the Knicks’ R.J. Barrett because Herro is a better shooter and potentially slightly cheaper in a lucrative next contract.

Nevertheless, the Knicks can put together a package without Barrett that could appeal to the Jazz because of the volume of picks. But according to The Athletic, New York rejected Utah’s request for six first-round picks, as well as Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin. Discussions are expected to continue.

In the meantime, here’s a look at how Mitchell and Herro compared last season in several areas:

▪ Points per 36 minutes:

Mitchell last season averaged 27.5 points per 36 minutes, up from 25.5 in his career.

Herro averaged 22.9 per 36 minutes, up from 19.9 in his career.

The caveat is Herro shoots 18.8 field goal attempts per 36 minutes, compared with 21.9 for Mitchell. So that partly explains the scoring disparity.

Edge: Mitchell.

▪ Shooting accuracy:

Mitchell shot 44.8 percent from the field and 35.5 on threes, both similar to his career averages.

Herro shot 44.7 percent and 39.9 percent on threes, much better than Mitchell has ever shot in a season on threes. Herro is a 38.5 percent career three-pointer shooter, Mitchell 36.1.

Their career shooting percentages are nearly identical: 44.1 for Mitchell, 44.0 for Herro.

Edge: Even, though Herro is the better three-point shooter.

▪ Rebounds per 36 minutes:

Herro averaged 5.5 last season and 5.6 in his career.

Mitchell averaged 4.5 last season and 4.4 in his career.

Edge: Herro.

▪ Floor game:

Herro averaged 4.0 assists and 2.6 turnovers last season; turnovers were a problem at times.

Mitchell averaged 5.3 assists and 3.0 turnovers.

Edge: Mitchell, but close to a wash.

▪ Clutch play:

During clutch time — defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer — Herro this past season shot 36 percent (18 for 50) and 38.5 percent (10 for 26) on threes and 75 percent (12 for 16) on free throws.

Herro was subpar in the clutch during the 2021-22 season, too: 32.4 percent from the field and 26.1 percent on threes (6 for 23).

In the 2022 playoffs, Herro was 0 for 6 overall in the clutch and 0 for 4 on threes, quite a difference from his 2020 Orlando bubble clutch play, when he shot 6 for 13 on clutch threes, 8 for 17 overall and 5 for 6 on free throws.

During clutch time this past regular season, Mitchell wasn’t very good: He shot just 33.3 percent from the field (30 for 91) and 18.8 on threes (6 for 32) and 13 for 21 (61.9 percent) on free throws.

He also was underwhelming in the clutch in the 2020-21 regular season, shooting 37 percent overall and 25 percent (6 for 24) on threes.

In the 2022 playoffs, Mitchell shot 3 for 11 in the clutch during Utah’s first-round playoff loss to Dallas, quite a difference from his 2020 Orlando bubble clutch play, when he shot 7 for 14, 2 for 3 on threes and 15 for 16 on free throws.

Edge: Herro, mostly a byproduct of Mitchell’s poor efficiency in the clutch.

▪ Commonly cited defensive stats:

Herro averaged 0.7 steals and 0.1 blocks per 36 minutes, Mitchell 1.6 steals and 0.2 blocks.

Edge: Mitchell.

▪ Defensive metrics:

Though field-goal percentage against doesn’t take into account blow-bys or help defense, it’s worth noting that the player defended by Herro shot 45.7 percent, better than the 44.8 percent those players shot against everyone.

Herro also was picked on defensively, allowing penetrations by several quick guards, with Philadelphia and Tyreese Maxey repeatedly targeting him.

In the playoffs, players defended by Herro shot 48.9 percent, compared with the 46 percent they shot against everyone.

But Mitchell was worse, allowing the player he’s guarding to shoot 49.6 percent during the regular season, far better (or far worse defensively) than the 45.6 percent they shot overall.

That 49.6 field-goal percentage against was worst in the league for any guard who defended more than 35 shots; Mitchell defended 641. That shouldn’t be overlooked, even though he grabs more than one steal per game.

Mitchell was abused defensively in the playoffs, allowing the player he was guarding to shoot 55.6 percent (30 for 54); those same specific Mavericks players shot 46 percent overall in postseason.

▪ John Hollinger’s complicated NBA efficiency formula:

Mitchell was 29th, Herro 112th, which seems way too low.

Where Mitchell has the obvious edge: He has a proven body of work as a three-time All Star and top-five NBA starting shooting guard. Five years into his career, he’s one of only eight players in NBA history to never average less than 20 points in any season in his career.

Herro, who was brilliant in winning the Sixth Man of the Year award, is eligible for a lucrative extension this offseason and likely will end up costing somewhat less than Mitchell’s deal, which will pay him $30.3 million next season.