Is toxic red tide subsiding in Florida? What the forecast shows for the holiday weekend

A cool Gulf breeze grazed the waves and sand as it came ashore the Manatee Public Beach this week, and it was free of the stinging scent of red tide.

A bloom of the toxic algae has dashed against Southwest Florida’s coastline since October, where it sporadically washed dead fish onshore and caused respiratory irritation for beachgoers.

It’s too soon to say whether the worst of the bloom is over for Manatee and Sarasota counties — they sometimes last for half a year or more. But beaches got a reprieve this week as red tide’s effects continued to dissipate around Anna Maria Island, Longboat Key and Sarasota’s Gulf beaches.

Red tide algae was detected in 51 water samples on the Gulf Coast of Florida this week — down from 75 last week.

Reports from area lifeguards noted that there weren’t any breathing troubles or dead fish in the sand or water at beaches on Anna Maria Island over the last four days.

Only one water sample showed bloom concentrations of red tide around the island this week. The sample was collected at the Rod and Reel Pier in Anna Maria on Monday. On Wednesday, conditions were pleasant around the local landmark, with no obvious signs of red tide.

Elsewhere on Manatee County’s coastline, water samples revealed very low concentrations of Karenia brevis, the organism that causes red tide, at Emmerson Point and Longboat Pass. The algae also remained present at low and medium concentrations around the Sunshine Skyway Bridge.

Meanwhile, the bloom remains stronger farther north around Pinellas County and the mouth of Lower Tampa Bay. Medium and high levels of the algae dotted the coastline on the state’s red tide sampling map.

At levels of medium and above, red tide is considered to be at bloom strength and is more likely to cause harmful impacts.

Red tide forecast

A major cold front will send temperatures plunging this Christmas weekend around Bradenton and Sarasota; on Anna Maria Island, highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s will make beach conditions quite frigid.

The incoming north winds could also send some of the red tide currently around Pinellas County back down towards Manatee, according to a forecast from the University of South Florida.

For those who do plan to spend some time near the shoreline, here’s a look at the likelihood of running into red tide.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts the respiratory threat from red tide. On Thursday, NOAA warned of a moderate to high risk of respiratory irritation on the coasts of Pinellas and Manatee counties over the next 36 hours. However, the threat appeared isolated to the north end of Anna Maria Island, where the bloom’s presence is stronger.

Red tide can become more noticeable with changes in winds and currents. The respiratory risk is most likely when winds are blowing on or along the shore. The current bloom is patchy; if one beach is impacted by red tide, a nearby one may not be.

USF’s red tide forecast from predicts that very low levels of the algae will circulate around the middle and bottom half of Anna Maria Island as well as near Palma Sola Bay through the Christmas weekend.

On the north end of the island, medium and high levels could be possible as north winds from the incoming cold front push surface waters around Pinellas County south.

The forecast predicts very low to high levels of red tide algae around Pinellas County in the coming days and very low to low levels on Sarasota County’s coast.

Red tide resources

Several online resources make it easy to check whether a particular county, beach or coastline in Southwest Florida are currently affected by a red tide bloom.

NOAA’s Red Tide Respiratory Forecast is updated several times a day with the level of red tide risk at specific beaches along the Gulf Coast, from Pinellas County through Collier County. Visit habforecast.gcoos.org.

Mote Marine Laboratory’s Beach Conditions Report is updated frequently by lifeguards and includes reports of red tide conditions, including respiratory irritation and dead fish, as well as other hazards on local beaches. Visit visitbeaches.org.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission issues weekly red tide reports with conditions by county and maintains a map of red tide sampling around the state. Visit myfwc.com/research/redtide/statewide.

University of South Florida’s Red Tide Prediction and Tracking center provides short term forecasts of red tide’s movement around Tampa Bay and the west coast of Florida. Visit ocgweb.marine.usf.edu/hab_tracking.