Tibor Nagy: The World in 2024 – A flock of black swans or just a horrid year?

This coming year may well prove John Kenneth Galbraith’s famous quote: “The only function of economic or political forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” There are many possible ways for global crises to unfold – each could go on, or end, and the endings could leave either a much more stable or a much more precarious world. So, the opportunities for “Black Swans” – unexpected events with bad outcomes – are many. The only certainties involve overarching trends, which unfortunately are also negative. Global democracy will continue to give ground to autocracy, and 2024 will likely exceed 2023 in violence, which itself featured 183 civil and regional conflicts, the most in 30 years. Globalization will also continue to decelerate, with global supply chains unraveling and reforming in response to conflicts, tariffs, instability, and international hostility, promoting more “nearshoring” and “friendshoring.”

Important elections in U.S., abroad

2024 will feature important elections impacting 4 billion people around the world. Some results are preordained – like Putin “winning” in Russia, the African National Congress in South Africa, Modi’s BJP party in India, and (most likely) Labor in the UK. But others are uncertain and will have global consequences.

The most important election this year will be in the US – since the outcome impacts the entire world. Most foreign leaders, like most Americans, assume it will be a Biden vs Trump rematch, and are awaiting the expected close outcome with trepidation. Some, like the Europeans and NATO partners, cringe at a potential Trump victory, while others, like Russia’s Putin and Israel’s Netanyahu, would welcome it. But this could be a Black Swan event – with neither Biden or Trump facing off, but two other candidates. That could cause a global tsunami, and it’s certainly possible. Meanwhile, the messier the US elections turn out, the more China and Russia will ballyhoo democracy’s failures to an increasingly receptive global audience.

Taiwan and China

The second most significant election will be on Jan. 13 in Taiwan since the results will greatly impact US-China relations. Of the three major parties competing, the greatest contrast is between the currently ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Koumintang (KMT) party. The DPP favors Taiwanese independence – without calling it that - while the KMT supports closer relations and greater accommodations with China, which has done everything to defeat the DPP. If the DPP scores a major victory, China will be furious and will unleash all types of hostile acts against Taiwan short of a direct attack, possibly requiring a US response. If the DPP ekes out a slim victory, or if somehow the KMT wins, China’s response will be much more subdued. In this case, US-China relations could be the most tranquil since 2015.

Another important election will be for the European Parliament in June, and I expect far right parties will shock the elites and media in how well they do. Two issues are fueling that trend: ordinary Europeans’ alarm at surging migration from Africa and the Middle East and high personal costs associated with European nations’ focus on transitioning to Green Technology.

Black Swans in Russia-Ukraine war?

The third year of Russia’s unprovoked war against Ukraine could go in several directions, with possible Black Swans. Putin is starting this year much stronger than in 2023, and Russia’s strategy is to subject Ukraine to a “death by a thousand cuts,” rather than trying any major offensives. Putin also hopes that, like sand in an hourglass, Western support for Ukraine will slowly dissipate, especially if Trump is reelected. My take – the Ukrainians have more to lose than Putin and will not give up, and Western support will be just enough to sustain Ukraine’s self-defense capabilities. That war will grind on and resemble ever more the static campaigns of World War I. But if Russians voice their opposition to the war by failing to give Putin his expected major election mandate, Putin might make moves to end the war. Similarly, if Ukrainian President Zelensky’s inner circle decides Ukraine has suffered enough, he may be forced to explore peace options. One certainty – the Ukraine War will further strengthen the bonds between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

Black Swan in Gaza?

The Gaza war is another Black Swan opportunity with the potential for an escalating conflict which brings in a growing list of Iranian proxies, regional countries, and Iran itself, possibly culminating with Israel having to threaten or even use its nuclear weapons. Not likely - I believe the major fighting will end without any further regional escalation, as no one really wants it. Even the current provocation of the Yemeni Houthis menacing Red Sea shipping will quickly subside as the danger to global transport hurts every nation. The big unknown is what happens to Gaza after Israel declares victory and looks to the US to pick up the pieces. My take: Israel, with Egyptian acquiescence, will try and control Gaza without a physical presence. Gaza’s affairs will be managed by a local council affiliated with the Palestinian Authority, but with no local credibility. The US will cobble together a coalition – not very willing – to help rebuild. Hamas will remain, but underground. There will be no progress towards a larger Two State solution. Netanyahu will be gone by June.

Other Black Swan possibilities

New Armenia–Azerbaijan War: Azerbaijan’s lightning victory in 2023 which captured the Armenian-controlled enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh and ejected 100,000 plus Armenians was devastating to Armenia. With Russia focused on its Ukraine War, Armenia has no protector and Azerbaijan will take a chunk of Armenian territory this year, either through force or threats, to establish a corridor to Azeri territory currently surrounded by Armenia.

Myanmar (Burma) Regime Toppled: 2024 will pose a significant threat to Myanmar’s brutal military regime, as a collection of disparate regional militias inflict a series of defeats on the army. Whether this conflict leads to regime collapse, or simply weakens it greatly, depends on China – which doesn’t like the regime, but may prefer it to the insurgents.

Sudan’s Civil War Ends: As long as both military factions in Sudan’s civil war – more destructive than Ukraine or Gaza - have continued to receive arms and support from their backers (Egypt, UAE, Chad) the fighting and devastation have gone on, despite multiple peace efforts. With one side’s recent victories, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Hemeti seem ascendant. In

2024 Hemeti, despite his horrendous human rights violations, will vanquish his opponent General Burhan either through military victory or negotiations which offer Burhan an off-ramp.

And the final Black Swan I couldn’t resist: the US Government will level with the American people about UFOs, sharing information which has been held back since the 1950s!

In the end, regarding 2024 and every other year, we must remember Abraham Lincoln’s wise words: “America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves.”

Ambassador Tibor Nagy was most recently Assistant Secretary of State for Africa after serving as Texas Tech’s Vice Provost for International Affairs and a 30-year career as a US Diplomat. Follow him on Twitter @TiborPNagyJr

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Tibor Nagy looks ahead at the world in 2024 through a diplomatic lens