Three-fourths of likely GOP caucusgoers feel Trump will beat Biden in 2024, Iowa Poll finds

© Copyright 2023, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Three-fourths of likely Republican caucusgoers are confident former President Donald Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds.

Asked how confident they are that Trump could beat Biden, nearly half of respondents, 47%, say they are almost certain the former president would be victorious if November’s race is a rematch of 2020. An additional 28% said they are fairly confident in Trump’s odds of beating Biden.

Just 11% say they are “not very confident” and 13% say Trump is “almost certain to lose” in a 2024 rematch.

Trump remains the Republican front-runner by 32 percentage points in the new poll; 51% of likely Republican caucusgoers say he is their first choice for president.

While more respondents are confident Trump will beat Biden than any of his challengers, the poll shows large majorities of likely Republican caucusgoers also perceive Biden as vulnerable against Trump’s highest-polling rivals.

Seventy percent of likely caucusgoers are almost certain or fairly confident Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would oust Biden from the White House. For former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, it’s 60%.

Trump continues to falsely assert that his 2020 loss against Biden was fraudulent and has asked supporters in campaign stops in Iowa to deliver a “landslide” victory in 2024.

Poll respondent Randy Archer, a 57-year-old truck company owner from Council Bluffs who is supporting Trump, said he believed voters were “catching on” to legal cases that he said were “persecuting the former president.” Trump is the only candidate he said was almost certain to defeat Biden.

He pointed to a recent indictment unveiled against Biden’s son Hunter Biden, who is accused of not paying his income taxes, as evidence that the president has his own baggage and believes he would struggle in a rematch.

“The news today, you know, just more and more news about Biden, how corrupt his whole family seems to be,” Archer said.

How do Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley fare?

DeSantis does the next best after Trump, with 29% of likely caucusgoers saying they are almost certain DeSantis could win, and 41% saying they are fairly confident.

The governor has frequently pitched himself as a more electable alternative to Trump, arguing that under the former president’s leadership, Republicans have failed to win crucial congressional races.

Jennifer Hasfjord, a 44-year-old poll respondent from Bode, supports DeSantis. He is the only candidate she is almost certain can defeat the president, and praises DeSantis’ service in the Navy and his record in Florida.

A veteran herself, she said she was “very, very disappointed” with how the Biden administration handled the military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.

“DeSantis has prior military experience, and I really do appreciate that,” Hasfjord said. “I think that gives him a strong chance in beating him.”

In addition, she said Biden, 81, “has obviously got some problems with dementia.”

Asked about Haley’s chances of defeating Biden, 22% of poll respondents say they are almost certain she could, and 38% say they are fairly confident.

A 25-year-old self-identified independent, poll respondent Joe DeVries of Sheffield, said he believes Haley or DeSantis are capable of beating Biden by attracting other independents.

“I think a lot of Republican and independent voters kind of align with what they’re saying, what their messages are,” DeVries said of Haley and DeSantis.

He’s not confident in Trump’s ability to attract independents, saying, "I just don’t think they will turn out for Trump."

More skepticism about Ramaswamy, Christie in a matchup against Biden

Nearly half of those surveyed, 48%, do not have confidence in entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy’s ability to defeat Biden.

Ramaswamy has touted his campaign as a younger and logical next step from the Trump administration, yet only 16% of likely caucusgoers are almost certain he could beat Biden; 29% say they were fairly confident he could. Seven percent of likely GOP caucusgoers are “not sure” about Ramaswamy’s ability to win, the highest of any candidate.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the most fervent anti-Trump candidate left in the race, generates the most skepticism about his ability to defeat Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup: Just 10% say they are almost certain he could beat Biden, and 15% are fairly confident.

A plurality of 41% say they believe Christie is “almost certain to lose,” the highest such rate across all candidates tested.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley were not included in the question about defeating Biden.

The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., surveyed 502 likely Republican caucusgoers Dec. 2-7. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 2-7, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 502 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 3,733 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 502 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: How would Republican candidates stack up vs. Joe Biden?