Thousands of ballots uncounted in Fresno, Valley. Here’s when we can expect an update

Election officials throughout central California have already counted more than 300,000 ballots from Tuesday’s midterm general election.

But for all those votes, there remain a handful of significant races in which uncounted ballots could add up to the difference between victory and defeat.

Consider, for example, the 287-vote margin separating Esmeralda Soria, D-Fresno, and Mark Pazin, R-Merced, in the contest for the 27th Assembly District. Soria, who is termed out of her current seat on the Fresno City Council, and Pazin, the former sheriff of Merced County, must now wait and see how thousands of yet-to-be-processed ballots in Fresno, Madera and Merced counties swing before either can celebrate or lament.

Soria so far has 24,193 votes or 50.3%, ahead of 23,906 votes or 49.7% for Pazin.

In Fresno County alone, 126,440 ballots have already been counted, but County Clerk/Registrar of Voters James Kus estimates that there are about 60,000 vote-by-mail ballots that still need to be processed and counted, as well as about 1,000 conditional registration and provisional ballots that were received Tuesday. That doesn’t count an unknown number of ballots that are somewhere in the U.S. Post Office system postmarked by Tuesday and yet to arrive at the elections office.

Other Valley counties were unable to provide estimates of how many ballots they still have outstanding, but given the thin margins, each periodic update by elections officials is certain to be closely watched by candidates and backers or opponents of ballot measures to see if the margins grow or shrink.

To be counted, ballots that are in the mail must have been postmarked by Tuesday, and must arrive at county elections offices by 5 p.m. Nov. 15.

In Fresno County, the first post-election-night update of results is not expected until Thursday afternoon.

Among the close contests that could swing depending on updated vote totals are:

22nd Congressional District

Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, finds himself engaged in yet another nail-biter in his bid for re-election to Congress. The newly redraw 22nd Congressional District includes all or parts of Kings, Tulare and Kern counties.

As of Tuesday night, Valadao held a lead of fewer than 3,400 votes over state Assemblymember Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, after more than 42,600 votes counted so far. Valadao has 23,034 votes or 54% to Salas’ 19,648 votes or 46%.

While that unofficial early margin may not exactly be comfortable for Valadao, it is a wider gap than what final results have provided in two of his previous election efforts.

In 2018, for example, then-incumbent Valadao lost a squeaker to Democratic challenger TJ Cox of Fresno. The Associated Press had initially called the race for Valadao on Election Night, but momentum from late-arriving ballots swung back and forth before Cox finally gained a margin of just 862 votes out of more than 113,000 ballots cast throughout the district. At that time, the 21st Congressional District included part of Fresno County as well as Kings County and portions of Kern and Tulare counties.

Two years later, in the 2020 election, Valadao regained his seat, defeated TJ Cox by a mere 1,522 votes out of more than 170,000 votes cast districtwide.

13th Congressional District

Only 203 votes separated Assemblymember Adam Gray, D-Merced, and Republican farmer and businessman John Duarte of Hughson in the hotly contested race to represent the 13th Congressional District in the North Valley. Almost 70,000 votes in the district had been counted in Fresno, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties as of Tuesday night.

Duarte led after Tuesday night with 34,715 votes or 50.1% to Gray’s 34,512 votes or 49.9%.

It’s unknown how many outstanding ballots remain to be counted in the five counties that could affect the district results..

Fresno Unified School District, Seat 4

Among the closest races in the Valley is for Seat 4 on the Fresno Unified School District Board of Trustees. The incumbent representing the McLane High School area of central Fresno, Veva Islas, held a razor-thin lead of just 25 votes over challenger Karen A. Steed, a retired teacher, after more than 3,600 votes were tallied Tuesday night.

Islas has 1,527 votes, or 41.9%, to Steed’s 1,502 votes or 41.2%.

A third candidate, Michelle Denise Scire, received 588 votes, or 16.1%.

Merced City Council

That 25-vote margin between Islas and Steed in Fresno Unified isn’t exactly a canyon, but it’s certainly a wider gap than exists between candidates for the District 6 seat on the Merced City Council.

In that contest, a single vote separates challenger Fue Xiong from incumbent councilmember Delray Shelton. By the end of Tuesday night’s county, Xiong had 856 votes to Shelton’s 855 votes. Six write-in votes were also received but won’t factor into the race except as potential spoilers.

What happens next?

Elections officials in Valley counties have begun processing ballots that were dropped off in person at polling places or drop boxes or received by mail on Tuesday, and are beginning their work to canvass the results at their respective processing centers.

Mail-in ballots will be accepted through 5 p.m. Nov. 15, provided they were postmarked by Nov. 8.

The canvassing will continue throughout the rest of November and into early December. Counties have until Dec. 8 to certify their results, and must send that information to the California Secretary of State by Dec. 9.

State election officials will compile those county results to determine winners of statewide and district races including Congress, state Assembly and state Senate. The final official results will be certified by the Secretary of State by Dec. 16.