Texas Tech football vs. California in Independence Bowl: Score prediction, scouting report

High on the list of Texas Tech football's biggest bowl victories was the Red Raiders' upset of No. 4 California at the 2004 Holiday Bowl. Former walk-on quarterback Sonny Cumbie passed for 520 yards, upstaging Golden Bears QB Aaron Rodgers and a team loaded with future NFL players, Marshawn Lynch among them.

The next Texas Tech-Cal game will take place with considerably less fanfare.

The Red Raiders and the Golden Bears, both 6-6, are matched in the Independence Bowl set for Dec. 16 in Shreveport, Louisiana. The kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ESPN will televise the game.

Texas Tech football, Cal football in turnaround mode

Texas Tech is making its third consecutive bowl appearance after finishing below .500 five years in a row and six seasons out of seven. Cal is in a bowl after three consecutive losing seasons.

The Golden Bears might be a little more excited to be here. They were 4-8 last year and picked to finish ninth in the Pac-12 preseason poll. Texas Tech, on the other hand, was 8-5 last year and, loaded with returning starters on both sides of the ball, was picked fourth in a 14-team Big 12. The Red Raiders view their season as a disappointment.

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Matchup to watch: Texas Tech football's Tahj Brooks and Cal football's Jaydn Ott

No bowl can showcase a matchup of more productive running backs. Brooks has rushed for 1,443 yards and nine touchdowns, Ott for 1,260 yards and 11 TDs.

Brooks topped 100 yards rushing eight times in the past 10 games and ran for 98 and 95 yards in the other two. Ott topped 150 yards in a game five times and reached 80 yards in three others. They are fourth and seventh, respectively, in rushing yards per game in the FBS.

The Golden Bears' sophomore is a speed back whose kickoff-return touchdown ignited a 33-7 conquest of UCLA in the regular-season finale.

Beware the bowl-game caveat of the 2020s, though: Do either of the two opt out of the game?

Neither team threw in the towel

Texas Tech was 3-5 at the end of October, then put together a three-game win streak against TCU, Kansas and Central Florida to become bowl eligible. Though Big 12 champion Texas crushed Tech 57-7 in the regular-season finale, the Red Raiders are 6-2 in November the past two years under McGuire.

Cal was 3-6 after four consecutive losses to ranked Pac-12 teams, then qualified for a bowl with a three-game win streak against Washington State, Stanford and UCLA.

Who'll be calling the shots for Cal offense?

On Thursday, in a case of Bears poaching Golden Bears, Baylor hired Jake Spavital, the Cal offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Spavital's spent most of his coaching career in Texas and the Big 12.

So the Golden Bears have to quickly put a plan in place for calling the offense.

Freshman linebackers Ben Roberts, Cade Uluave give their teams linchpins for future

Roberts, Texas Tech's redshirt freshman, earned recognition from Big 12 coaches as the co-defensive freshman of the year in the conference. Thrust into a starting role because of injury in the second week of the season, he's racked up 100 tackles, including five tackles for loss, with an interception and two forced fumbles.

Cal took Uluave from Brigham Young's backyard in a Salt Lake City suburb. The true freshman has 58 tackles, including 6 ½ tackles for loss and 2 ½ sacks, plus two interceptions and two fumble recoveries.

Not all the Red Raiders and Golden Bears are strangers

Texas Tech safety Julien (C.J.) Baskerville and Cal safety Patrick McMorris are both in year one at new programs after being teammates at San Diego State. Baskerville is the Red Raiders' second-leading tackler with 73 stops to go along with five pass breakups, and McMorris is the Golden Bears' third-leading tackler with 77 stops to go along with six pass breakups.

McMorris spent 2019 through 2022 at San Diego State, and Baskerville was an Aztec in 2021 and 2022.

They're not the only former teammates. Cal outside linebacker David Reese played at Florida from 2018-22, overlapping with Tech linebacker Jesiah Pierre, a Gator during the 2019 and 2020 season. Reese has Cal team highs of 6 ½ sacks and three forced fumbles, and Pierre is Tech's third-leading tackler with 66 stops.

Score prediction

Before the blowout loss at Texas, Texas Tech had held eight of its previous nine opponents under 30 points. Cal has yielded 50 points or more to four teams and more than 30 two other times, all in Pac-12 games. The defensive disparity is a significant edge for Tech. All bets are off, though, should Brooks opt out, further weakening a Red Raiders offense that is losing receivers Jerand Bradley and Myles Price to the transfer portal. Texas Tech 30, Cal 24.

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Texas Tech football vs. Cal in Independence Bowl: Prediction, scouting report