Texas Tech football faces Cal in Independence Bowl: Scouting report, predictions

This year's Independence Bowl features a pair of similar teams trying to close out the 2023 season on a high note.

The Texas Tech and California football teams walk into Saturday's game with a national audience on ESPN in a primetime slot for their 8:15 p.m. CT kickoff. Each squad sports a 6-6 record, having won three games in the month of November to lock themselves into a bowl game.

For the Red Raiders, the goal is two-pronged. A victory would be the first time since 2002-04 that Tech won three bowl games in consecutive years. It would also be the first time in more than a decade the Red Raiders had three winning seasons in a row.

Similarities don't end there, though. Let's see how the teams match up in this contest.

When Texas Tech football runs

Tahj Brooks delivered Texas Tech his own version of a bowl gift earlier this week, announcing he would return to the Red Raiders for his fifth and final season. While that impacts next year more than anything, it also means the nation's fourth-leading rusher (1,443 yards) won't have pro aspirations on his mind in Shreveport. He can instead focus on a tough Golden Bears run defense, which is giving up 134.1 yards per game. Brooks averages 120.2 yards per game himself. Brooks rarely comes off the field anyway, but should he need a breather, he'll still have Cam'Ron Valdez spelling him. Valdez will play for Tech in the bowl game despite having his name entered into the transfer portal.

Advantage: Cal

When Cal football runs

Much like Texas Tech, Cal has one of the top running backs in the country on its side. Jaydn Ott was a first team Pac-12 all-conference selection after totaling 1,260 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, good for 13th in the nation. The Golden Bears have gained about another 900 yards around Ott, so he's not alone in the rushing attack. Tech's once solid run defense has taken some major hits as of late. Not only will Jaylon Hutchings not play, the Red Raiders have given up 747 yards over the last three games.

Advantage: Cal

When Texas Tech football passes

After struggling through the end of the season with a bum shoulder, Behren Morton has had a couple weeks to heal up, which should be to Texas Tech's benefit after his rough outing against Texas (a sentiment shared by the entire team). He threw three interceptions and totaled 88 yards on 19-for-36 against the Longhorns. Now the expected starter next season with Tyler Shough's transfer to Louisville, Morton would like to have a good showing to close the season. He'll have that opportunity against Cal, which has been susceptible to allowing big yards through the air. The Golden Bears are 127th out of 130 teams in passing defense, allowing 282.5 yards per game. Cal is also 110th in scoring defense (primarily from the secondary woes) but it should be noted just under 50% of the 392 points the team has allowed came against Washington, Oregon State, Utah and USC. Add in Oregon's 63 points, about 66% of the points scored against Cal have come from five of the best teams in the country that featured four of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Cal football passes

Again, much like Tech, since Cal has such a steady go-to running back, the Golden Bears don't utilize the passing game too often. Cal is 78th in passing offense (214.6 yards/game) while Tech is 71st with seven more yards per game. Also like Tech, Cal has had to utilize three quarterbacks this year, though it's likely to be Fernando Mendoza (1,447 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs) taking the reps in the Independence Bowl. Mendoza had his best game a few weeks ago against Stanford, totaling 294 yards and three touchdowns. Texas Tech's secondary has been mostly steady throughout the year though has struggled with speedier teams the last few games.

Advantage: Texas Tech

Texas Tech vs. Cal: The specialists

With a rebound from the Texas debacle, Austin McNamara could cement himself atop the Big 12 history books. The Texas Tech punter currently holds the lead as the conference's all-time leader in career punting average with 45.94. Former Oklahoma State punter Quinn Sharp is second at 45.88. Kicker Gino Garcia was one of two Red Raiders to receive scholarships last week after joining the team as a walk-on. Cal's Lachlan Wilson was a second-team all-conference punter and is averaging 45.57 yards per punt this season. Freshman kicker Mateen Bhaghani was 4-for-4 on field goals against UCLA.

Advantage: Push

Score prediction: Cal 30, Texas Tech 29

This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Scouting, predicting Texas Tech football's Independence Bowl vs. Cal