Texas Latinos as large a voting bloc as ever. What this means for Democrats and Republicans

The 2024 election will be the first since the U.S. Census Bureau announced last year that Latinos are the plurality in Texas. The most recent census data indicated that 40.2% of the state's residents identify as Latino, compared to 39.8% of non-Hispanic whites.

This doesn't mean Latinos will be the largest voting bloc in the coming election — in 2022, the 6.5 million eligible Latinos made up just under a third of the potential Texan electorate and, per a CBS Exit poll, about a fifth of Lone Star State voters — but it does mean that the relatively young demographic's electoral power has continued to grow. The Pew Research Center estimates that Latinos will compose 14.7% of all eligible voters in the U.S. in 2024, up from 13.6% in 2020.

And the diversity of voters under the umbrella of Latinidad will make opportunities for both parties in Texas, experts say. Republicans could benefit from increased turnout of historically aligned evangelical or English-as-first-language Latinos, Democrats from agnostic, young and urban ones.

"If we're thinking about the traits of Latino voters, being Latino is only one of them, and it's not as pivotal as being African American is to an African American voter," said Mark P. Jones, Rice University political science professor and Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation pollster.

Still, Jones said, the bloc as a whole can move between parties more suddenly than others because of the large number of first- and second-generation Latinos who are less politically entrenched and willing to change their vote.

Are Republicans increasing their share of the Latino vote?

Some polls have suggested that Donald Trump, who leads the Republican primary candidates, might do better against President Joe Biden among Latino voters than he did four years ago.

In January, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll showed Biden behind by 5 points among Latinos. Later that month, a University of Houston poll of Texas Latinos showed Trump up by 6 points.

These numbers, along with some gains in historically Democratic and heavily Latino South Texas, such as the victory of Monica de la Cruz in Texas' 15th Congressional District, have buoyed Republicans' beliefs that they will be competitive for a larger share of the Latino vote than in 2022, when Gov. Greg Abbott received 40%.

Texas Politics Project Research Director Joshua Blank said that Republicans' gains appear real but modest. He said it's likely they reflect outreach or turnout of certain types of Latinos whose values align with the party's.

"Republicans have found a certain area where they can court the right voter," he said. "There’s a little bit of growth, but it doesn’t match the narrative.”

More: If the Texas Latino vote strays to Trump, Democrats could be doomed. Could that happen?

Conservative push in Texas border cities continues

El Paso County GOP Chair Adolpho Telles said Latinos will be an important part of his party's efforts to make Texas more competitive. He said the party will appeal to many Latinos' concerns about inflation and border security. Like other Republicans, he’s convinced the crisis at the border will egg voters on to vote red.

“People are seeing it perfectly. They see what’s happening. They see nothing’s being done,” he sad.

Telles said the Republican Party sees room to grow particularly among Latino men and Latinos living in suburban and rural areas.

In the recent University of Houston poll that showed Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden among potential Latino voters, Trump fared 15 points better among Latino men than women.

Closing the gap with Democrats on Latinos in South Texas could allow Republicans to fend off their losses in other voting blocs such as white women, Jones said.

Part of the success in South Texas has come from a concentration on grassroots efforts.

“For the longest time there was nobody else with our view,” said Jorge Martinez of the conservative-leaning Libre Initiative.

Libre began in the Rio Grande Valley in 2011 and continues to focus its efforts in South Texas. In 2022, the organization and its PAC endorsed the GOP’s slate of border-region Latina congressional candidates like Monica de la Cruz and Mayra Flores, as well as other, mostly Latino, Republican candidates across the state. The organization, which fielded eight staffers and 100 volunteers in the last election, door-knocked and phone-banked.

Martinez believes the group’s work has challenged discourse in communities he believes Democrats have taken “for granted” and believes it can continue to do so.

Dems and progressives focus on registration and turnout

The ballot decisions of South Texas Latinos will tell part, but not all, of the story. Census data compiled by the Texas Tribune shows Latinos in the border region represent less than a third of the demographic’s vote. Almost twice as many live in the state’s four largest metros of Austin, Dallas-Forth Worth, Houston and San Antonio.

Democrats say Republican inroads with some voters can be overcome with increased participation. Texas Democratic Party Executive Director Monique Alcala said the party believes its share of Latino votes will grow if registration numbers and turnout increase.

Part of that registration and turnout strategy will focus on young Latinos.

Data published by the Council of the Americas on Texas’ 2022 elections showed that Latinos aged 18-29 most heavily backed Democrats. More than 3 in 4 of these voters supported Beto O’Rourke over Abbott. In comparison, only 50% of Texas Latinos aged 30-44 backed O’Rourke.

Jolt Action, a progressive-minded civic engagement group, will focus on registration and get-out-the-vote efforts among young Latinos in San Antonio, Houston and Dallas. A good portion of this is done through affiliated university and high school student clubs.

Executive Director Diana Maldonado said the organization’s focus is necessary because of how young Latinos skew in Texas. Just less than a third of Texas Latinos are under the age of 18, meaning there’s potential for what Maldonado calls a “tsunami” of new eligible voters.

Jolt said it registered more than 24,000 voters in the two years before the 2022 election and almost 13,000 last year. Its goal for the 2024 election cycle, including 2023, is to register 30,000 voters.

Maldonado said that the biggest obstacle Jolt confronts is convincing potential young voters that registering and showing up to vote is worthwhile in a state with a history of single-party rule. It causes voter fatigue, she said. A more competitive political reality has been theorized, but young Latinos have yet to see it.

“Doing nothing will get you more of nothing," Maldonado said. "But doing something — at least there’s an opportunity, and hope.”

The pitch, she said, is to get young voters excited about a more “representational” slate of candidates whose views on LGBTQ+ rights, reproductive health and “respect” for immigrants align more with the views of this group of voters.

Early voting for the March 5 Texas primary will begin on Feb. 20.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Democrats, Republicans push for Texas Latino votes in Primary election