Is Tennessee already Trump’s? How Super Tuesday could play out in the Volunteer State

Days ahead of Super Tuesday ― the most pivotal day in the 2024 presidential election cycle until November ― Tennessee early voting polls are quiet, voters are frustrated, and presidential campaign signs are few and far between.

Despite a recent visit from former President Donald Trump, and outside groups spending more than $2 million to energize voters for his competitor, the presidential primaries in Tennessee appear all but decided.

Incumbent President Joe Biden has no primary opponent for the Democratic nomination. Trump has yet to be beaten by his last remaining competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley – having now trounced her by wide margins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan.

“This is really a very unique presidential primary because, in essence, we have two incumbents,” said Kent Syler, professor of political science and public policy at Middle Tennessee State University.

Tennessee is a deeply red state politically, and Trump carried the Volunteer State in 2016 and 2020 with just over 60% of the vote. Four years later, polls show Tennessee voters continue to be fiercely loyal to Trump – despite three criminal indictments and two impeachments.

Multiple polls show 40- to 60-point spreads between Trump and Haley supporters. Sixty-three percent of Republican respondents to a Beacon Center poll said they would vote for Trump even if he is convicted of a crime.

In Nashville, for instance, voters are motivated not by excitement for candidates, but by the prospect of keeping the other guy out. Early voting turnout was down 30% from 2016 across the state.

“The early vote is always a good indication of election day turnout and interest,” Syler said. “The low voter turnout is a product of most voters seeing the primary election as a foregone conclusion for both parties.”

So, is it already over? Is Tennessee already Donald Trump’s?

Trump, Biden dominate polls, some undecided

How likely is it that Trump and Biden will their respective primaries? Almost inevitable, according to several polls.

Trump roundly defeated competitors, pulling 72% support from respondents in January 2024 Republican primary poll by the Beacon Center of Tennessee, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (who has since suspended his campaign) netted 12%, and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley drew 7%.

More: Tennesseans back Trump but a nearly third of GOP says party on the wrong track, poll shows

According to the December 2023 Vanderbilt poll, 56% of Republican voters prefer Trump, to 20% who support DeSantis, and 12% who back Haley. Head-to-head against Haley, the Vanderbilt poll found Trump had a 46-point lead.

An exclusive Tennessean/Siena College poll in December reported that 49% of respondents would like Trump to be the next president, while 20% said they prefer Biden to remain in office. But a significant number of voters – 24% – remained undecided at that point. Democrats were more likely to be undecided than respondents identifying as Republicans: 20% of Democrats said they did not know who they preferred, while only 12% of Republicans were undecided.

There’s strong support for Trump (44%) among independents, but just as many (44%) want someone else, or remain undecided. The Beacon poll found that spoiler candidates like independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. could eat away at Trump's lead, as he is more popular among Republicans and independents than Democrats.

'God knows I'm hoping things change'

Nashville voters are turning out primarily out of civic duty, or to cast their vote to “keep the other guy out of office,” as Biden voter David Michi told The Tennessean after voting at Southeast Community Center.

Southeast voter Valerie Matthews also said she was motivated to vote “to keep Trump out.”

“To get rid of Donald Trump,” agreed southeast voter George Ridley. “We can’t do no more of this dividing in the world… It’s uncalled for.”

One Nikki Haley voter in Bellevue didn't want to give her name but said she was casting a ballot not for the former South Carolina but disappointment in the other candidates.

More voters on both sides of the aisle indicated that they were motivated to vote against Trump than for Biden or Haley. But some saw the action as positive.

Bettina Warkenton, who voted at Bellevue Community Center, described her vote as one “of affirmation and encouragement,” for Biden.

“This is a very pivotal election,” Warkenton said. “I’m not alone in thinking that.”

Voters who spoke to The Tennessean generally feel the results of the primary are already settled – that the general election will be between Biden and former Trump.

“It’s hard to think anything will happen,” Bellevue voter Ken Debelak said.

With an incumbent and a pseudo-incumbent, campaign signs for presidential candidates are notably absent from polling locations. Instead, signs for property assessor and judge candidates pepper the medians outside the 100-foot boundary.

But some voters remain optimistic that the horse race action of the presidential primary may not yet be over.

“We don’t really know what’s going to happen, especially looking at the two-party system, what’s going to happen with Trump, and with Nikki Haley still in the race,” Carlee Brian, a government teacher in West Nashville told The Tennessean. “We are in a state where it’s still pretty given, the outcome of most of those primaries – but who knows what can happen? I think it’s all up in the air right now.”

After casting her vote for Biden at the Southeast Community Center, Mary Johnson agreed.

“It’s not settled yet,” she said.

Dark money groups pour $2M into Haley bid

Koch-funded Americans For Prosperity Action and partner groups have spent more than $2.4 million backing Haley and attacking Trump and Biden – including nearly $500,000 on door-to-door canvassers – in Tennessee alone.

Will it make a difference?

After Haley’s sweeping loss in South Carolina on Saturday, AFP paused to “take stock of where we are,” wrote AFP Action Senior Advisor Emily Seidel in a memo to stakeholders after the South Carolina primary, provided to The Tennessean. Moving forward, the group is suspending action on Haley’s behalf to focus energy on U.S. House and Senate races.

“Nikki Haley has shown us again and again that we made the right decision in supporting her candidacy and she continues to have our strong endorsement,” Seidel wrote. “But given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory. And so while we will continue to endorse her, we will focus our resources where we can make the difference.”

It remains unclear what, if any difference the efforts will make to move the needle away from Trump in Tennessee. Americans for Prosperity Action did not respond to a request for comment from The Tennessean for this story.

Trump makes his pitch in Nashville

Despite a tight calendar of court appearances and campaigning, Trump is the only candidate to have made a stop in Tennessee in recent weeks, visiting Nashville for a fundraiser and speech just two days ahead of the South Carolina primary – which he won handily.

Trump spoke to an enthusiastic crowd of about 1,500 last month at the National Religious Broadcasters convention at the Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center, vowing to support Christians if elected.

“I love Tennessee,” Trump said. “Your primary is Tuesday, March 5 – less than two weeks from now, so get out there and vote – and I have a feeling you’re going to vote for a guy named Trump.”

Neither Biden nor Haley have campaigned personally in the Volunteer State this year, though first lady Jill Biden attended a political event in Franklin last month.

Will low voter turnout help or hurt Trump?

Early voter turnout is down significantly, compared with presidential primaries in 2020 and 2016.

According to early voting numbers from the Tennessee Secretary of State’s office, turnout across Tennessee in the 2024 presidential primary elections was down 20% from the 2020 presidential primaries – and down nearly 30% from 2016. While early voter turnout was up slightly in the Republican primary election – 24% more people voted in the Republican primary than in 2020 – turnout among Democrats was down by 63% from four years ago.

“This is politics, and anything can always happen, but I think most voters see the primary process as a foregone conclusion, and that’s one of the big reasons they’ve chosen not to participate,” Syler said.

Will voter turnout help or hurt either of the two presumptive leading candidates?

“I think low voter turnout will impact both of them the same,” Syler said.

Why bother to vote?

If the presidential primary is all but decided, why should voters head to the polls? Because the presidential primary isn’t the only race on the ballot.

County primary elections – for offices like school board, property assessor, and judges – will be decided Tuesday. And in cases where there is no opposition in the general election later this year, those offices will be decided Tuesday.

“Even if you think that the presidential primary is a done deal, think about your local school board – it’s important to get out and participate in that race,” Civic TN Executive Director Matia Powell told The Tennessean. “There are critical local elections on the ballot. … March 5 might determine who represents you.”

Civic TN is a coalition of 40 partner organizations focused on voter education and get-out-the-vote initiatives. Powell said they’ve been gearing up for months, working to educate voters on the voting process, and encourage them to go cast their ballot.

In many cases, local officials have a much more direct impact on voters than who occupies the White House – whether it’s determining property values (the basis of property tax calculations), or making watershed decisions on local school funding.

Because many offices have primary candidates, but no opposition in the general elections in August, March 5 might be the only time many voters have to weigh in on who they want making those decisions.

“In these local positions – particularly for school board and property assessor,” Powell said, “you really want to get out and vote and make sure your voice is heard.”

Vivian Jones covers state politics and government at The Tennessean. Reach her at vjones@tennessean.com.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Super Tuesday in Tennessee: How primary could play out, voter turnout