Teddy may approach New England, Atlantic Canada as hurricane after blowing past Bermuda

Less than one week after feeling the full force of Hurricane Paulette, residents of Bermuda are preparing for impacts from powerful Hurricane Teddy, which unlike Paulette, may take a path that could eventually bring impacts to Atlantic Canada and perhaps the northeastern United States.

Paulette brought a wind gust of 117 mph to Bermuda and an island-wide power outage when it passed directly overhead Sept. 13-14. More than 20,000 customers were without power following Paulette's strike.

Teddy first developed in the central Atlantic on Saturday, Sept. 12. On Friday night, Teddy strengthened into a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Laura is the only other Atlantic storm to achieve major hurricane status so far this season.

As of early Sunday morning, the storm was about 340 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making it a dangerous Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Hurricane Teddy seen Saturday morning over the open Atlantic. (RAMMB CIRA/NOAA GOES-East)

Teddy is currently forecast to be more intense than Paulette as it makes its closest approach to Bermuda.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller expects Teddy to pass just to the east of Bermuda late Sunday night into Monday as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane.

The impacts, however, will depend on how close the center of the storm passes to the islands. The closer the center of the storm, the greater the impacts will be.

AccuWeather's current Eye Path® takes Teddy about 50 miles to the east of the the islands. This would spare Bermuda from the worst conditions Teddy has to offer. Should the track shift west, the core of strongest wind and heaviest rain could impact the islands.

However, even a glancing blow by Teddy can still have significant impact on the islands due the hurricane's current large size.

AccuWeather's current forecast calls for wind gusts of 40-50 mph and an AcccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 60 mph in Bermuda. This can be enough to lead to downed tree branches and power outages, especially since Paulette may have already weakened some trees.

Teddy is expected to bring a quick-hitting round of rain with 1-2 inches expected across the islands. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 3 inches is possible should heavier bands of rain set up across the area. This can lead to flooding in low-lying areas and ponding on roadways.

Given these impacts, Teddy is forecast to be less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes in Bermuda.

In comparison to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which has been used by meteorologists for decades and classifies storms by wind speed only, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale is based on a broad range of important factors. The scale covers not only wind speed, but flooding rain, storm surge, and economic damage and loss. This communicates a more comprehensive representation of the potential impact of a storm to lives and livelihoods.

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After passing Bermuda, Teddy is expected to continue on a north-northwesterly track which would cause the hurricane to approach Atlantic Canada or northern New England around the middle of the week.

"If Teddy takes a northerly track, areas from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland would be the most likely to endure impacts. Teddy may still be a hurricane at this time with impacts including damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall and pounding surf," Miller explained.

On this track, 2-4 inches of rain would be widespread across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Locally heavier rainfall could fall where the center of the storm tracks.

If Teddy makes landfall as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, widespread wind damage and power outages would result.

Dorian tracked across Atlantic Canada in early September of 2019 and brought widespread wind damage to Atlantic Canada. Teddy has the potential to bring similar results should it remain on its current forecast track.

Residents should begin to make appropriate preparations as this appears to be the most likely scenario.

Another scenario would have Teddy track farther to the east and miss Atlantic Canada on the storm's trek into the North Atlantic.

"There also remains the chance that Teddy is pulled more to the northwest and could impact northern New England before curving across Atlantic Canada and into the North Atlantic," Miller said.

This could bring strong winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding to much of the New England coastline.

A hurricane has never hit Maine from any direction other than from the southwest, according to AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell.

"Only eight hurricanes have hit Maine on record with only three of those since 1950," Ferrell said. "Bob in 1991 was the most recent and only the Unnamed 1869 hurricane, Bob and Gerda from 1969 were Category 2 when they hit with the remaining storms being Category 1 strength."

According to Colorado State University Meteorologist Phil Klotzbach, the average date for the second major hurricane formation in the Atlantic is Oct. 3.

Regardless of the final track and impacts from Teddy, forecasters warn that rough surf and dangerous rip currents are possible along the New England and mid-Atlantic coasts through early week.

Small craft should avoid venturing too far offshore as monstrous waves could develop from and propagate toward the coast from the large hurricane.

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