TCU is fast, physical ... and big. How KU basketball must counter: Opponent breakdown

After a loss to K-State on Tuesday, the Kansas men’s basketball team looks to get back on track against TCU on Saturday at Allen Fieldhouse.

The two teams last met in the Big 12 Tournament, with the Jayhawks winning 75-62 over the Horned Frogs in Kansas City. KU has an 11-game winning streak at Allen Fieldhouse vs. TCU.

The Horned Frogs enter off a 74-65 loss to West Virginia on Tuesday. TCU has lost three of its last four games.

The Horned Frogs are a big, physical team anchored by an elite defense ... not to mention they have a guard contending for Big 12 Player of the Year.

Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.

Saturday’s game: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 14 TCU

When/where: 12 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse

TV/Streaming: CBS

Opponent’s record: 14-4, 3-3 Big 12

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 30

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

TCU team strengths

• Shutdown defense: TCU ranks 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.3). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent. The Horned Frogs also rank 34th in the opposing team’s effective FG% (46.1).

• Opportunity creators: TCU ranks 19th in the nation in turnovers forced per game (17).

• Second chance galore: The Horned Frogs love to crash the glass. They rank 26th in offensive rebounding percentage (34.5) and 46th in offensive rebounds per game (12.2)

TCU team weaknesses

• Outside shooting woes: TCU struggles to make shots beyond the arc. They rank 348th in the nation in three-point percentage (28.7%).

• Defensive rebounding issues: Though the Horned Frogs are great offensive rebounders, they struggle on the defensive glass. They rank 208th in defensive rebounds per game (24.7).

• No easy points: TCU isn’t a good free throw shooting team (70.8% at the line), ranking 200th.

Player to watch

6-foot-2 Junior guard Mike Miles

+ Explosive athlete that is elite at finishing at the rim (77.3% at the rim)

+ Quick hands, averages 1.5 steals per game

+ Consistent scorer; 20 straight games scoring double-digit points

- Not a great free throw shooter (69.8%)

- Bad outside shooter; he shoots 28.8% from 3.

Tale of the Tape

TCU isn’t known for its shooting, but the Horned Frogs are a dangerous team in transition. On this play, Damion Baugh received a quick pass and rumbled hard into the paint. He then hit a tough layup despite getting fouled.

The Horned Frogs love taking advantage of lackluster transition defense, so KU will likely prioritize getting back. More often than not, TCU goes straight to the hoop on fastbreaks.

Despite often struggling from beyond the arc, TCU sticks around in games due to its elite offensive rebounding. Here, TCU missed a shot and forward Xavier Cork converted the put-back dunk. KU has struggled with rebounding all season long, so an emphasis needs to be placed on boxing players out and controlling the glass. Offensive rebounds can be complete momentum shifters, so the Jayhawks want to avoid giving those up at all costs.

Game prediction

KU looks to bounce back from its 83-82 overtime loss to rival K-State on Tuesday. The Jayhawks haven’t lost to TCU at home in the history of the series.

This TCU team is a bigger, more physical team than most and it shows on defense. The Horned Frogs will likely force KU offensive stars Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick into difficult shots by face-guarding them and running them off the three-point line.

Besides limiting turnovers, KU needs its other guards — Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar — to shoot it without hesitation and make their open looks.

The matchup between TCU’s offense and KU’s defense is fascinating. Kansas needs to wall off the paint and control the tempo because TCU loves to play at a quick pace and take shots early in the shot clock. In fact, the Horned Frogs rank 28th in the country in fastest average possession length. The key to success for KU is to force TCU into taking threes.

Both teams desperately need this win. KU needs it to keep pace with K-State — both teams are tied for first in the conference — while TCU desperately needs another quality conference win after losing three out of four.

Though it will be close, I give Kansas the edge here. Kansas is historically excellent after a loss in the Bill Self era, which should continue.

Kansas 78, TCU 74

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: TCU ( +7.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 8-2

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 7-3

Player to watch: KJ Adams

KJ Adams has slowly become KU’s second most important player this season. The forward has an 11-game double-digit points streak. On the defensive end, he’s held his own against much bigger and taller opponents. Against a team like TCU, with a massive big man like Eddie Lampkin inside, Adams’ play is crucial on both ends.

On the offensive end, he needs to continue to be aggressive and look for his shot. On the defensive end, he needs to provide rim protection and box out against this taller TCU team. If Adams can make his impact felt on both ends of the court, the Jayhawks should emerge the victors on Saturday.