Has Taco Bell steal-a-base promotion led to more swiped bags? Where's what the data says.

As the 2023 World Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers gets underway, America watches with saliva dripping out their mouths in anticipation of their annual free taco.

Since 2007, Taco Bell has offered every American a free taco at their restaurants so long as there is a single stolen base during the World Series. In that 2007 World Series, Jacoby Ellsbury was the hero America needed, and since then, not one World Series has come and gone without free tacos for everyone.

Despite stolen bases being on a decline for years leading up to 2007, and being even further on the decline in the mid-2010s, the free taco has remained through it all, never failing to satisfy hungry MLB fans, so that begs a very pivotal question: Has the free taco promotion led to earlier stolen bases in the World Series?

We crunched the numbers to satisfy a hungry public.

World Series stolen base rates prior to 2007

Here is a graph that shows the stolen-base tendencies across every World Series since 1997, 10 years before Taco Bell started their "Steal a Base, Steal a Taco" promotion.

As you can see, prior to the 2007 World Series, whether or not there would be a stolen base early-on was anybody's guess.

• There were five instances where it took at least 36 half innings (two full nine-inning games) for a player to steal a base.

• There were also three instances where the first successful stolen base happened by the bottom of the second in Game 1.

It was wildly inconsistent despite stolen bases being immensely popular in the late 1990's and early 2000's.

World Series stolen base rates post-2007

The mid-2000's saw stolen bases decrease in popularity. While stolen bases were once again gaining traction around 2006, it still took 58 half innings (more than three games) for the first stolen base attempt in the World Series that year. Then, Taco Bell stepped in.

In 2007, MLB stole 2,918 bases throughout the season, the most since 2001 (3,103), but only 151 more than the league saw in 2006. Still, once the World Series rolled around, it only took 25 half innings before the first stolen base attempt. In 2008, stolen bases dipped back down during the regular season, but it still only took 10 half innings for the first stolen base in the World Series.

While there weren't nearly as many first inning stolen bases due to the decrease in stolen base prominence compared to the 90's, stolen base attempts were consistently happening earlier in each World Series.

Call it a coincidence, but we think the taco might have had something to do with this.

2012: The introduction of the Doritos Locos Taco

2012 was a landmark for the World Series promotion: No longer were they offering a regular taco, but now, a taco using Doritos for a shell. It was all the rage when it first came out.

Despite that intense hype, the World Series that year was between the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers, who combined for a pretty miniscule 177 stolen bases during the regular season. Nobody dared try to steal a base in Game 1, but Game 2 saw two attempts, one by each team, with the Giants' Angel Pagan securing America their free Doritos Locos tacos in the top of the eighth inning.

The next two years saw similar rates, witnessing the first stolen base attempts happen after 30 half innings in 2013 and 20 half innings in 2014. Not one team in that three-year span even attempted a stolen base in Game 1.

The surge

Then, 2015 came. Suddenly, in almost every World Series, stolen bases were happening near instantaneously. Only once (2017) did the taco last until Game 2. Every other series saw the bag secured by the seventh inning of Game 1, with free tacos secured four times by the end of the first inning.

That's right. Since 2015, four of the eight World Series have seen a stolen base within the first frame. While it doesn't line up with the inaugural promotion in 2007 or the introduction of the Doritos Locos Tacos in 2012, it certainly can't be overlooked.

During this stretch, stolen bases were on a massive decline, dropping from 3,230 stolen bases in 2012 to as low as 2,214 in 2021. That 2021 figure was actually the fewest stolen bases in a full season since 1981.

Still, once the World Series rolled around, we saw a stolen base in the top of the first inning in Game 1. It might seem inexplicable, were it not for the free taco.

2023: a base stealer's paradise

2023 saw a massive increase in stolen bases, from 2,487 a year ago to 3,500 - the most since 1987. Much of that increase can be attributed to MLB making bases bigger this year, increasing their size from the traditional 15 inches square to 18 inches square, not only making it easier to touch a bigger area while sliding in for a steal, but also shrinking the distance between bases.

With that in mind, you'd think 2023 would be the best opportunity for a first inning stolen base in "Steal a Taco" history. That said, both the Rangers and Diamondbacks have been phenomenal at tagging would-be base stealers.

Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno led all of MLB in caught stealing percentage, getting 48 percent of all runners out. Rangers catcher Jonah Heim wasn't far behind either, finishing fifth among all qualified catchers in that category, throwing out 33 percent of all potential base stealers.

That doesn't mean there won't be a stolen base during this World Series. The Diamondbacks were second in MLB in stolen bases this year, racking up a whopping 166 throughout the season. Standout rookie Corbin Carroll was third in MLB with 54, and he already has four this postseason. It's more than likely that America will get its free tacos this year, just maybe not in the first inning like we've seen in three of the last five World Series. It's still very likely that it happens at some point in Game 1 though, which has been the case in every World Series since 2018.

How to watch the World Series:

Game 1 of the World Series is scheduled for tomorrow at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. First pitch will be at 8:03 pm ET/5:03 pm PT. You can find the game on FOX, or stream the game on Fubo TV.

Watch the game: Catch World Series action with Fubo

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Has free Taco Bell promotion led to more World Series stolen bases?