Idalia weakens to post-tropical system but expected to re-strengthen to tropical storm

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Tropical Storm Jose formed early Thursday in the central Atlantic from what was Tropical Depression 11 as activity in the tropics was teeming with Hurricane Franklin, what was Idalia, another potential tropical depression and a new area of low pressure.

As of 5 p.m. Thursday, Jose was 750 miles east of Bermuda with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was moving north at 12 mph. Jose is expected to be absorbed by Hurricane Franklin on Friday, according to the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

Franklin weakened to a Category 1 hurricane late Thursday afternoon with top winds of 90 mph. As of 5 p.m., it was about 370 miles northeast of Bermuda. The hurricane is forecast to slowly weaken and dissipate into an extratropical cyclone by Friday night.

A new area of low pressure could develop over the eastern tropical Atlantic early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward, forecasters said in the 2 p.m. advisory. It has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days.

A tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic off Africa is likely to become a tropical depression later this week as it moves west-northwest, the National Hurricane Center said. As of 2 p.m. Thursday, its odds of developing were at 80% in the next two to seven days.

Finally, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gert drifted several hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands. Its chances of regenerating were low, 30% in the next two to seven days.

By late Thursday afternoon, the former Hurricane Idalia further weakened into a post-tropical cyclone with maximum winds of 65 mph, moving east at 21 mph. As of 5 p.m., the hurricane center said all watches and warnings in South Carolina and North Carolina have been discontinued, though a tropical storm watch is now in effect for Bermuda.

Idalia will gradually weaken through Friday night but is expected to re-strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday and approach Bermuda over the weekend. The storm could bring as much as 7 inches of rain to Bermuda through Sunday night and will likely cause flooding, the hurricane center said.

Idalia rapidly intensified into a major Category 4 storm before weakening to a Category 3 hurricane early Wednesday as it made landfall along the coast of Florida’s Big Bend near Keaton Beach about 7:45 a.m. Keaton Beach is along the Apalachee Bay.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.

As of Thursday, there have been three hurricanes — Don, Franklin and Idalia, the latter two of which were major hurricanes.

The next named storm to form would be Katia (KAH-tyah).

The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Nino.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Nino’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.