Super Bowl: Chiefs-49ers on Sunday in Vegas. Here is why our pick is an upset! (But is it, really?)
GREG COTE’S SUPER BOWL PICK
A Baltimore-Detroit Super Bowl would have been a better one, for me, if only because loyal Lions fans have not cheered an NFL championship team since 1957, and anything almost as old as me is officially ancient. But we cannot argue or bemoan the golden Kansas City-San Francisco matchup. The Chiefs are the current dynasty, playing in their fourth SB in five seasons and trying to be the first back-to-back winner in 20 years. The 49ers are the storied franchise after new glory days, having last won in in 1995. Ticket prices have gone into outer space. Being in Vegas doesn’t hurt. If you aren’t excited for Sunday, be a better sports fan.
SUPER BOWL LVIII
CHIEFS (14-6) vs. 49ERS (14-5) in Las Vegas
Line: SF by 1 1/2.
Cote’s pick: KC, 24-23.
TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS..
A quarterback matchup still moves the needle like nothing else in the NFL, and this is a great one for the contrast alone. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is coming off a so-so (for him) season but has zero to prove as a two-time champ. But a win here nudges him into G.O.A.T. territory -- or so the narrative would state. The Niners’ Brock Purdy is Mr. Irrelevant, the dead-last draft pick still trying to verify it isn’t just a ground game and defense that makes San Fran pretty great. If you place big weight on the QB position, the 49ers being favored at all might seem a bit hmm. Maybe that is why five times more moneyline bets on K.C. to win had been placed into Thursday (via BetMGM), although most final bets by the sharps are not yet made. In any case the line has tipped from 2 to 1 1/2 points. Both teams have an encouraging injury status. Chiefs LG Joe Thuney is doubtful but pass rusher Chris Jones and RB Isaiah Pacheco are back practicing fully and WR Skyy Moore is off I.R. Niners TE George Kittle and DT Arik Armstead both are still limited but expected to play. So. Put all of this in the blender, pulse, and what do you get? I believe you get a Chiefs upset that hardly feels like one. One team enters in clearly better form of late. San Fran is 3-2 in its past five games and needed two narrow playoff escapes to get here. Properly peaking K.C. is on a 5-0 run and the most impressive coach in the postseason has been Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. That team is here because K.C.’s defense has held three big offenses (Dolphins, Bills, Ravens) to 13.7 points this postseason. I think the two great defenses are equal. I’d note Chiefs are on a 5-1 run over Niners including 31-20 in the Super Bowl four years ago in Miami. Oh, one more thing ... Mahomes vs. Purdy. Chiefs again. And Taylor Swift elevates officially to First Lady of the NFL.
[Note: Betting line via ESPN Bet sportsbook as of afternoon Thursday.
LAST TEAMS OUT
Conference championship game losers ranked by reasons to be most disappointed:
1. Ravens: Baltimore was a 4-point home favorite and the defense did its share in the 17-10 loss.. But the Ravens made no effort to establish a ground game (total of six RB carries) and the postseason stigma Lamar Jackson carries only deepened.
1a. Lions: Detroit hadn’t won a playoff game since 1991 but should be in Vegas right now. Led 24-7 at the half. Then costly mistakes including twice failing to convert 4th downs, eschewing short field goals and costing Lions six points in 34-31 loss.
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
The conference championship round mirrored a weird postseason for me. Missed both games outright but nailed both where the cash is won -- against the spread -- by having ‘dog Chiefs covering on Baltimore and Detroit covering vs. Niners (with an exact score of 34-31). Our playoffs overall have been middling, but going out with a Super Bowl win makes everything better.
AFC-NFC Championship Round: 0-2, .000 overall; 2-0, 1.000 vs spread.
Playoffs: 6-6, .500 overall; 6-6, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 171-101, .629 overall; 130-133-9, .495 vs. spread.
