Super Bowl 2023: A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce and our other favorite player prop bets
Player props are everywhere in the betting sphere, and not just for NFL games. That phenomenon started with Super Bowl XX more than 30 years ago.
The Super Bowl is still the pinnacle of prop betting, and there are seemingly endless player props for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. The Yahoo Sportsbook team shares our top player props for the Super Bowl (after we've already given out our game prop bets), with the odds from BetMGM:
Nick Bromberg: Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon has been relatively quiet through the first two playoff games after he was the most productive receiving back in the NFL over the second half of the season. McKinnon has just two catches for 17 yards this postseason and both those grabs came against the Bengals. But I think there’s value in 5+ catches for McKinnon at +250. He had five or more catches in five of the Chiefs’ last 10 games of the regular season and can make an impact in the screen game and as the short option in the flat if the Eagles sit back and don’t want the Chiefs to beat them deep.
Greg Brainos: A.J. Brown over 71.5 receiving yards. As my pal Mark Drumheller pointed out, Kansas City has been awful at covering WR1s. Justin Jefferson was the only wideout this year with more yards after the catch than Swole Batman, and the Chiefs have been torched for the fifth-most YAC.
Peter Truszkowski: I hate to be boring and chalky, but with all of the Kelce narratives surrounding this game, I’m going to have to back Travis Kelce to score at anytime at -125 odds. Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game and if the Chiefs are going to keep pace, Kelce is going to be ultra involved. Mecole Hardman is out, and Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith Schuster are all banged up to varying degrees. Kelce is already the focal point of this offense, but it might be taken to another level in this game. Mahomes loves Kelce in the red zone and it seems like Andy Reid draws up plenty of unique plays to get the ball in his hands down there.
Sam Cooper: Defensively, the Eagles are most susceptible to be beaten in the middle of the field. From a personnel standpoint, it’s the unit’s biggest weakness. The defensive line is excellent, as are the two outside corners. But safety and linebacker can be an issue, especially when the opponent has a tight end like Travis Kelce. For the Eagles, having Avonte Maddox back in the slot allows C.J. Gardner-Johnson to move back to safety. That helps the unit function much better. But if the Chiefs can find a way to get Kelce one-on-one versus linebackers like T.J. Edwards or Kyzir White, there are big-time catch-and-run possibilities. That’s why I like the Kelce longest reception over 22.5 yards prop.
There are a few others that caught my eye, including A.J. Brown’s receiving yards total being just 71.5. I think it’s a buy-low spot after he’s had just 50 yards so far in the postseason. The Eagles have had big leads and have been content to lean on the rushing game. Brown topped 71.5 yards nine times during the regular season. Brown going over 100+ yards at +210 is also worth a look, as is the Dallas Goedert anytime TD at +175.
Scott Pianowski: I’ll sign off on some plays that have received mention from my esteemed colleagues. The Eagles defense doesn’t have many flaws, but it’s been leaky against pass-catching running backs. I like Jerick McKinnon to beat his front-door props (over 20.5 receiving yards looks like a gift), and maybe you can swing at the fences for a big McKinnon game. On the flip side, the Chiefs have so much trouble against alpha wideouts — sitting 31st in defensive DVOA against No. 1s. I want to punch some A.J. Brown action, be it for his yardage total (over 71.5, -120) or longest reception (over 26.5, -110).
Frank Schwab: Kenneth Gainwell’s rushing total has gone up from 18.5 to 19.5 but I still like the over. He had 35 yards on just five carries in the regular season finale, 112 yards in the divisional round and 48 yards in the NFC championship. He had friendly game scripts in the last two games (and had 12 and 14 carries, both of which were more than he had in the regular season), but he seems to be the hot hand going into the Super Bowl. He’ll get opportunities. I like him at +275 to score a touchdown and hey, let’s get wild and throw some pennies and nickels on Gainwell to win Super Bowl MVP at 125-to-1.
Other than my Gainwell devotion, I also like Patrick Mahomes to throw for more than 400 yards at +725. The Eagles have a very good defense but this is Mahomes, and he could either go nuclear and get 400, or a negative game script could have him passing a lot. It’s not likely, but the odds make it worth a shot. And sure, I'll join everyone else on the A.J. Brown over 71.5. And I have to add another long shot Super Bowl MVP play with Haason Reddick, who has been on fire this postseason, at a strong 30-to-1.
