Sunday, Petersburg casino bidders put their cards on the table. Who could win the pot?
PETERSBURG – The casino town hall meeting is just a few days away ... the time when all five vendors bidding for Petersburg’s business will roll out their visions for the “destination entertainment resort” that the city wants to see.
Two weeks ago, when the names of the bidders were announced, The Progress-Index evaluated the opening line on each vendor’s odds of winning based solely on their brand and history. Since then, we have seen some jockeying for position among some of those bidders and a significant amount of news coverage surrounding the financial stability of others.
With that in mind, The Progress-Index revisited that opening line and has come up with a new round of odds for the five heading into the town hall meeting. Based on our research and the information we have uncovered, it is safe to say that there has been some reshuffling.
The prospective vendors are Bally's Corp., The Cordish Companies, Penn National Gaming, Rush Street Gaming and The Warrenton Group. Here are the latest odds for each vendor as we see it, with pros, cons and chances of winning the bid.
5. The Warrenton Group
Pros: Not much has changed since the opening line when we hypothesized that the Washington, D.C.-based business developer might be in the mix for the possibility of partnering with the winning bidder on the contract. We have learned that Warrenton, in fact, has an agreement with the gaming entertainment company Delaware North that it will present at the town hall. Delaware North operates casinos in eight states – the closest being one in Wheeling, West Virginia, about 400 miles away from Petersburg – and one in Australia.
Cons: See the above. While the bid must have some merit (otherwise it would not be under consideration), the lack of a track record in the industry continues to be the biggest obstacle to overcome. We cannot see Petersburg as a pilot program/guinea pig for a relative newcomer to test its wings in the casino business.
Chance of winning:Clear underdog. While the partnership with a company that runs a casino in Australia sounds good on a resume, we cannot see this venture being a “G’Day” for Warrenton securing Petersburg’s business.
4. Penn National Gaming
Pros: Unchanged from the opening line. The Hollywood casino brand ushered in the concept of “community casinos” drawing bettors away from the bright lights of Las Vegas and Atlantic City. Its operation in Charles Town, West Virginia, appears to be solidly entrenched in the business community. Plus, Penn has experience in running a casino in a community with the same racial demographics as Petersburg – it is one of several that economically rebooted majority-Black Tunica County in Mississippi, about 30 miles south of Memphis – so expect their proposal to acknowledge that.
Cons: While it has the experience in “community casinos,” it also has the reputation of not working and playing well with others. As we noted earlier, back in 2012, the company lobbied hard, yet unsuccessfully, against Maryland getting into the gambling business. Should it come to Petersburg, would we see that same territory-marking with counterparts within the state lines?
Chance of winning:Long shot. There are several bidders in the Petersburg mix who just by name alone would make the case for Penn National Gaming more difficult. There are others who have a track record in Virginia and who are familiar with how Petersburg ticks. Based on that, we do not see Petersburg putting “Penn to paper” and signing with the firm.
3. Rush Street Gaming
Pros: The Chicago-based entertainment company already has a foot in the door with Portsmouth’s Rivers Casino, so far the only gaming parlor in its permanent location (Bristol’s and Danville’s are in temporary quarters, while Norfolk’s still in on the drawing board). It has proven to be a successful venture economically. That could weigh Petersburg’s decision in RSG’s favor.
Cons: Is Virginia ready for its first casino chain? If the state wants the industry to flourish, then it has to encourage competition. Big-name players such as Hard Rock and Caesar’s are establishing presences here, so on the surface, it might make sense for Petersburg to lure similar big names, and it has done so at least with Bally’s. On the other hand, having two major brands competing with two regional brands could work out well, too. So this one is probably the hardest to handicap.
Chance of winning:50/50. After being strongly against a Petersburg casino for the previous two sessions, state Sen. Louise Lucas signed on this year as a chief co-patron with Sen. Lashrecse Aird. In addition to bringing a significant amount of political influence to the issue, it does not hurt that Lucas represents Portsmouth in the Virginia Senate. And Portsmouth is home to Rivers Casino. RSG is the clear darkhorse of the five to get the business.The question is, will Petersburg be willing to “Rush” into a deal with Rush Street Gaming.
2. Bally’s Corporation
Pros: A big dog in the industry already, it seems on the surface that Bally’s would be the clear frontrunner to land the casino. Petersburg needs someone who can step up and say this is not its first rodeo. In addition to strong presences in the nation’s gambling capitals, Bally’s is expanding its brand into other states such as New York and Illinois. What better way to make a footprint into a new industry while at the same time putting its major competitors on notice than to join in the Virginia fray. Besides, it could have a location advantage over Hard Rock and Caesar's in that it would be accessible by not one but two major interstates (85 and 95) as well as being on the preeminent traffic corridor on the East Coast (I-95).
Cons: Recent news reports indicate that the big dog might have some fleas. Bally’s is having trouble raising capital for some major properties, particularly the glitzy gambling and entertainment resort it promised for Chicago. Bally’s has a temporary location there in a formerly vacant building, but a so-called “slot shed” is a far cry from what it said it would bring. In addition, the company took a major shot when its credit ratings were downgraded by Moody’s and S&P in part because of the Chicago scenario. A Bally’s representative told The Progress-Index that the Petersburg proposal is not linked to what happens in Chicago. However, if Chicago is shrugging its big shoulders about Bally’s what does that say for Petersburg and its significantly smaller shoulders?
Chance of winning: Better than 50/50. Sure, it’s Bally’s and it’s big business, and big businesses get bigger by overcoming adversity. However, Petersburg knows what it is like to face major financial struggles and the city has to ask itself if it is willing to consummate a deal with a company where even investor-rating services are not giving it much of a chance to turn around its credit score. In this case, it all boils down to what the company included in the envelope it mailed to Petersburg. Could that be enough to make Petersburg “Bally-high?”
1. The Cordish Companies
Pros: The familiarity of doing business with Petersburg already. Cordish brought out a $1.4 billion development proposal for a casino-centric business and residential community on Wagner Road. All Cordish has to do is blow the dust off the previous one, tweak it a bit, and we have a plan. But the reason Cordish makes the biggest jump in ranking from fourth to first is its proposal to join with NFL Hall of Famer Bruce Smith and his development company in the Petersburg project. Cordish takes the “Buy American” marketing concept and narrows it significantly by suggesting Petersburg residents should “Buy Virginia” and support a bid that not only has deep Virginia roots but also benefits a representative of the Black community that also represents Petersburg’s majority. There is no question that Smith – and Cordish – will drive that point home and then some at Sunday’s town hall.
Cons:That familiarity again. There could still be some baggage left from the last Cordish experience in Petersburg. Cordish maintains it was only a piece of that puzzle and wielded no political influence. While that may be true, there is still the “guilt by association” warranted or not that if Petersburg turns back to its original vendor, it could only stir up the political ghosts and frenzies that haunted the city the previous two sessions. Plus, hospitality labor unions who loudly spoke out against Petersburg getting the casino last year due to Cordish’s involvement came back this year and said they support the city. One has to ask if unions would about-face their support if Cordish is the chosen one.
Chance of winning:The new favorite. The Bruce Smith involvement, coupled with Bally’s bad economic news, tips the scale toward Cordish, putting the company in an even stronger spot to leverage its past dealings with the city. Its presentation at Sunday’s town hall likely will be the most emotion-filled of the five. If it does nothing else, the presentation will move Cordish into a position where the business now becomes it's to lose rather than the other vendors to win. Don't look for Petersburg to quickly "cut the cord" on Cordish.
The town hall meeting is set for 2 p.m. Sunday, April 14, at the Petersburg Public Library.
Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is an award-winning journalist who covers breaking news, government and politics. Reach him at batkinson@progress-index.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @BAtkinson_PI.
This article originally appeared on The Progress-Index: Casino vendors get ready to pitch business plans to Petersburg
