Sunday’s KC vs. Buffalo Bills AFC showdown promises peak drama. Here’s how Chiefs win

Two of the NFL’s best teams meet Sunday afternoon when the Chiefs play host to the Buffalo Bills at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

The showdown between 4-1 teams is a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round game, won in overtime by the Chiefs.

And with superstar quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen leading two of the top offenses in the league, Sunday’s showdown should provide yet another entertaining contest.

“That’s a great football team, still a great football team,” Mahomes said. “And we know it’ll come down to the wire every single time that we play them.”

Sunday marks the 53rd time, including regular season and postseason, the Chiefs and Bills will clash. While Buffalo holds a 27-24-1 edge in the all-time series, the Chiefs have won six of the past eight since Andy Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013.

Here are four key areas to monitor as the Chiefs look to improve to 5-1:

IT STARTS WITH ALLEN

Allen leads the NFL’s No. 1 passing offense (324 yards per game), No. 1 offense (440.4) and No. 2 scoring offense (30.4 points per game).

But it’s not just Allen’s arm the Chiefs must contend with.

Through five games, Allen has a team-high 225 yards rushing on 35 carries. In four career games, including the postseason, against the Chiefs, the Bills signal-caller has totaled 257 yards rushing and a touchdown on 37 carries, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.

How do the Chiefs even begin to contain a dual-threat QB like Allen?

“We just have to be defined in our assignment in our pass-rush lane,” Chiefs linebacker Darius Harris said. “Make sure everybody is on point, everybody is where they’re supposed to be and just try to bottle him in, because if we’re undisciplined, he can break it out of the gate and hurt us big-time.”

The Chiefs should be better equipped this time around against Allen and the Bills’ ground attack. While the Chiefs had a hiccup Monday in allowing Raiders RB Josh Jacobs to eclipse 100 yards, they still boast the league’s No. 3 rushing defense (83.6 yards allowed per game).

And if the Chiefs are successful in turning the Bills’ offense into a one-dimensional attack, they can take their chances by going after Allen in the pocket while maintaining gap discipline and outside containment.

DOUBLE TROUBLE

If Allen has time to throw, he has All-Pro and two-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis at his disposal.

And they’re a handful.

Diggs enters Week 6 with 39 catches for 508 yards and five touchdowns on 52 targets, and the eighth-year pro is easily Allen’s favorite target. Diggs’ 52 targets more than doubles running back Devin Singletary’s 23, which are the second-most looks in the Bills’ passing game.

Davis, who is in his third season, introduced himself to the Chiefs and rest of the NFL in last year’s AFC Divisional Round, where he recorded eight catches for 201 yards and four touchdowns. Davis’ 309 yards receiving through five games ranks second behind Diggs.

How to defend them? Here’s Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s take: “Ultra-tough. I mean, you got two of them. And listen, the guy with the ball in his hands that’s firing it to them is pretty good, too.

“Both vertical guys, both guys that you got to be concerned with, with the big play. And I think Josh Allen is always looking for the big plays, so it’s like on every down — it’s not like a third-down thing. Hopefully, we maintain our depth and don’t give up the explosive passes.”

The Chiefs’ pass defense has shown some weakness this season and currently ranks 24th in the league (allowing an average of 255.6 yards per game). In their last two games, the Chiefs have allowed 626 passing yards and five touchdowns.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans had eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4, while Las Vegas Raiders receiver Davante Adams had three catches for 124 yards and two TDs Monday.

Chiefs cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton (who is dealing with a hamstring injury) and rookie Jaylon Watson can’t afford another leaky performance against Buffalo’s dynamic receivers group. Rookie Trent McDuffie could be available to help, provided he’s activated from injured reserve before Sunday.

START FAST

The Chiefs’ first three offensive possessions against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5 were a disaster: punt, missed field goal, punt.

It’s no wonder the Chiefs quickly found themselves down 17-0 before the team finally woke up and squeaked out a 30-29 comeback win.

To put it bluntly, Mahomes and the offense can’t experience a slow start against the Bills because Buffalo is stout not just on offense, but defense.

The Bills rank at or near the top of multiple statistical categories, including first in points allowed per game (12.2), first in takeaways (11), second in total defense (260.4 yards allowed per game), second against the run (77.8 yards allowed per game), fourth against the pass (182.4 yards allowed per game) and sixth in sacks (16).

“I think if you look at all their positions, they’re solid in ... all the positions,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said of Buffalo’s defense. “You don’t see a lot of weaknesses there.”

The Chiefs lead the league in points per game (31.8), but their offensive line needs to step up in this one and give Mahomes time to work.. That means slowing down the Bills’ pass rush, which is led by three-time All-Pro and eight-time Pro Bowler Von Miller.

At 33, Miller shows no signs of slowing down. His four sacks are tied with Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau for the team lead.

Miller sometimes moves along the offensive line. He can line up over the right tackle or left during a game. And he’ll have Chiefs left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.’s full attention Sunday.

“I think he’s still having a ton of production, a lot of success,” Brown said. “He’s done a really good job, it seems like, on every team that he’s played on. He’s playing at a very high level — an All-Pro, Pro Bowl level — as a rush end. He’s still one of the best and been one of the best.”

If the Chiefs want to start fast, they must win in the trenches.

MAKE A STATEMENT

Before the season began, the Bills were a national media favorite to advance to and win Super Bowl LVII. The same poll had the Chiefs fourth.

The Bills are loaded and will almost certainly make the playoffs. But how quickly those outside KC seem to forget that Reid and Co. have won the AFC West six straight times and played host to the AFC Championship Game for four straight seasons.

They’ve appeared in two straight Super Bowls, winning one. That’s two Super Bowls in the past three.

The Chiefs can remind everyone on Sunday that they remain the team to beat in the AFC with a spirited effort and win.