Summer 2024 forecast: NJ will feel a hotter than usual summer but not so humid

Juan Carlos Castillo, Asbury Park Press

The 2024 Summer in New Jersey is going to be very hot but not so humid, forecasters say.

Save for North Dakota, every U.S. state is set to experience a hotter summer than usual, says the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Here in the Northeast, weather patterns indicate this year we'll get a hot and dry summer, said Kyle Leahy, meteorologist at WeatherWorks, a New Jersey-based forecasting company.

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"We just had El Niño that's weakening and we're going to end up transitioning into La Niña. And a lot of those times when you get that transition into La Niña, the summer ends up hot and dry," he said.

On top of that, high atmospheric pressure stemming from Southeastern Canada this summer is going to make it hard for rain systems to reach the New Jersey region. The high pressure is likely to keep the air less humid as well, Leahy said.

In New Jersey, days with temperatures in the upper 80s will be more common than days with temps in the lower 80s.
In New Jersey, days with temperatures in the upper 80s will be more common than days with temps in the lower 80s.

What is La Niña and how does it affect New Jersey?

Just like El Niño, La Niña is an atmospheric phenomenon causes by oceanic water temperature patterns. When it comes to La Niña, it occurs when temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean drop to cooler than average. According to NOAA, when that happens there is less evaporation, weaker storms and less moisture in the atmosphere.

How hot will it be this summer in NJ? Is it going to be a long summer?

In New Jersey, days with temperatures in the upper 80s will be more common than days with temps in the lower 80s, said Ray Martin, lead meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.Typically, when the summer season register above average temperature, we tend to experience a longer summer, Martin said. What that means is that people might experience a warmer end of spring and start of fall.

The so called "local summer" at the Shore will be indeed very summery, as we are expecting a longer than average summer.
The so called "local summer" at the Shore will be indeed very summery, as we are expecting a longer than average summer.

When is hurricane season?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but most hurricane activity happens between mid-August and mid-October, according to NOAA.

How will the 2024 hurricane season be in New Jersey?

Forecasters expect the coming hurricane season to be more active than usual. In fact, hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin this year foresee almost double the activity of a normal year, Martin, from the NWS, said.

But that's not going to be the case for New Jersey necessarily.

"The forecast of activity does not have anything to do with prediction of where these storms would go. We could have a ton of storms, but not of them could come up here," Martin said. Still, by default, increased hurricane activity increases the risk of hurricanes coming up here, he added.

"In terms of impact here, it's a little bit trickier," Leahy, from WeatherWorks, said. "Most of the hurricanes we might see are going to impact the Gulf Coast, Florida, and maybe the Southeastern United States."

Given the the dominion of strong high pressure systems from the southeastern Canada, any tropical storm that would approach the region is likely to end up curving away, he said.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Summer 2024 weather forecast: hot, dry, some hurricane risk

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