Tropical storm Bret – update: Hurricane forecast downgraded but Caribbean remains on alert

Tropical Storm Bret is no longer expected to become a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center reported on Tuesday.

Parts of the Caribbean remain on alert as the center of Bret could move across portions of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, NHC said.

Strong winds and heavy rainfall is expected to accompany the storm system.

The storm is currently around 1,200 miles east of the southern Windward Islands with sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.

If Bret had strenghtened into a hurricane it would have been only the second hurricane to form in the tropical Atlantic in June in nearly a century, forecasters said. Hurricane Trinidad formed on June 24, 1933 to the east of the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical disturbance with a 60 per cent chance of cyclone formation is trailing Bret. No June on record has had two storms form in the tropical Atlantic, The Associated Press reported.

Key Points

• Storm Bret forms over Atlantic sparking fears in Caribbean

• When will storm Bret become a hurricane?

• Path of tropical storm Bret

• When will storm Bret reach Caribbean?

• Why hurricanes are getting stronger

06:42 , Stuti Mishra

Welcome to The Independent‘s live blog, where we will be providing you with the latest updates on the developing tropical storm Bret, which is expected to intensify into a hurricane.

Stay tuned for real-time information and analysis.

Storm Bret forms over Atlantic sparking fears in Caribbean

06:51 , Stuti Mishra

Tropical storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic sparking fears that it could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and take aim at the Caribbean.

Forecasters say that the storm, the second named one of the season, could pose a hurricane threat to the eastern Caribbean by Thursday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the weekend.

Graeme Massie has the details here:

Tropical Storm Bret sparks hurricane fears in the Caribbean

When will storm Bret become a hurricane?

07:30 , Stuti Mishra

Storm Bret, which originated in the Atlantic emerging over the central Atlantic, is expected to become a hurricane over the next "couple of days", according to the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC).

The centre said the storm is currently positioned about 1,945km east of the southern Windward Islands and is expected to head towards the Caribbean.

Spaghetti models for tropical storm Bret

08:10 , Stuti Mishra

Path of the tropical storm Bret, which can potentially become a hurricane, show it moving towards the Caribbean in the next few days, according to US National Hurricane Centre (NHC).

See the map from NHC below:

Bret is second named storm of this season

09:00 , Stuti Mishra

Tropical Storm Bret formed on yesterday, becoming the second named storm of 2023 as Atlantic hurricane season begins.

The storm, about 1,210 miles (1,945km) east of the southern Windward Islands, is packing maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65kph), the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC).

When will storm Bret reach Caribbean?

09:45 , Stuti Mishra

Storm Bret, which formed over the central Atlantic nearly 2,000km east of the southern Windward Islands is expected to arrive to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday and Friday, the National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said

The storm, which is expected to become a hurricane over the next couple of days, is currently about 1,945km from southern Windward Islands and it is packing maximum sustained winds of 65kph, the Miami-based forecaster said.

While it was “too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur,” NHC said, it asked everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to closely monitor updates and have a hurricane plan in place.

The map from NHC shows the projected path of the storm:

Satellite image shows storm Bret originating in Atlantic

10:30 , Stuti Mishra

This geocolour satellite image of Bret from National Hurricane Centre (NHC) shows the storm whirling in the Atlantic.

Why hurricanes are getting stronger

11:15 , Stuti Mishra

As the global average temperature increases and sea levels rise, tropical cyclones - the catch-all term for hurricanes and typhoons - are becoming stronger and the damage more catastrophic.

Here’s what scientists say:

Hurricanes are getting stronger. Here’s why

Will tropical storm Bret hit Florida?

12:00 , Stuti Mishra

Storm Bret’s current path shows it moving towards the Caribbean by the end of this week.

According to US National Hurricane Centre (NHC), there are “conducive” conditions for the storm to grow into a hurricane with experts raising concerns that it can be a long lived storm.

However, there is high uncertainty about its track forward and it remains unclear whether Bret will move towards Florida after the Caribbean or not.

Satellite video shows depression in Atlantic turning into storm Bret

13:01 , Stuti Mishra

A satellite video from the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Cira) shows a depression formed in the central Atlantic turning into storm Bret.

The storm is expected to gradually turn into a hurricane in the next two days.

Storm Bret forms over Atlantic sparking fears in Caribbean

14:00 , Stuti Mishra

Tropical storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic sparking fears that it could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and take aim at the Caribbean.

Forecasters say that the storm, the second named one of the season, could pose a hurricane threat to the eastern Caribbean by Thursday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the weekend.

Graeme Massie has the details here:

Tropical Storm Bret sparks hurricane fears in the Caribbean

‘Everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates'

14:45 , Graeme Massie

Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic sparking fears that it could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and take aim at the Caribbean.

Forecasters say that the storm, the second named one of the season, could pose a hurricane threat to the eastern Caribbean by Thursday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center says that at 5pm ET on Monday the storm had sustained winds of 40mph and was moving west across the Atlantic at 21mph.

Officials predict that it will strengthen over the next two days and reach Category 1 hurricane strength of 74 mph by Wednesday night as it nears the Lesser Antilles. The storm is not expected to strengthen into a Category 2 storm.

“Everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane plan in place,” the NHC said.

Another storm is brewing on the heels of Bret

15:05 , Louise Boyle

Aside from Tropical Storm Bret, forecasters were keeping close watch on a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean that has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next couple of days.

There is no June on record that has two storms form in the tropical Atlantic, forecasters said.

‘Official forecast does have it becoming a Category 1 hurricane approaching the Caribbean Islands’

15:30 , Graeme Massie

Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Atlantic sparking fears that it could strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and take aim at the Caribbean.

“The official forecast does have it becoming a Category 1 hurricane approaching the Caribbean Islands, the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the Caribbean,” Max Defender 8 Meteorologist Amanda Holly said.

Tropical Depression Three is feeding off the “extremely warm waters” in the Atlantic.

“We’re talking record warm water temperatures for this time of year, and that’s why we’re seeing in this type of development right now,” she added.

The 2022 hurricane season saw 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which eight became hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). Two of those grew into major hurricanes with winds of 111mph or stronger, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, says NOAA.

Dominica says storm poses a ‘high threat’

15:50 , Louise Boyle

The island of Dominica said on Tuesday that Tropical Storm Bret poses a “high threat” to the island.

Forecasters on the Caribbean nation, the northernmost of the Windward Islands, warned of landslides, flooding and waves up to 12 feet.

Pictured: Tropical Storm captured on satellite

16:10 , Louise Boyle

Watch: Tropical Storm Bret expected to intensify

16:29 , Louise Boyle

Above average number of hurricanes this season due to warming Atlantic

16:50 , Louise Boyle

The UK Met Office has predicted an above average number of hurricanes this season because of the warming North Atlantic.

This is unusual considering the world has entered into an El Nino period - a climate pattern which typically means fewer tropical cyclones.

Global sea surface temperatures in April and May were the highest on record for those months, the Met Office reported.

The climate crisis caused by human emissions, combined with natural phenomena like El Nino, have pushed up ocean temperatures during the spring to a level never before seen since records began in 1850.

Scientists are expecting more records to be broken as the summer advances.

The North Atlantic temperature in May was around 1.25C above the 1961-1990 average – the highest anomaly for any month on record.

Read more below

Global ocean temperatures hit record level for April and May

Puerto Rico issues tropical storm advisory

17:10 , Louise Boyle

Watch: Tropical Storm Bret to become hurricane, says National Hurricane Center

17:30 , Louise Boyle

Caribbean nations urged to have hurricane plans in place

17:51 , Louise Boyle

The US National Hurricane Center urged people in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to closely monitor the storm and have their hurricane plans in place.

“Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur,” the center said.

Vertical shear and drier air are expected to later weaken Bret as it swirls through the central Caribbean region, potentially taking aim at southern Haiti as a tropical storm.The Associated Press

NOAA satellites capture Tropical Storm Bret in central Atlantic

18:10 , Louise Boyle

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite was monitoring Tropical Storm Bret early on Tuesday over the central Atlantic.

The storm is expected to strengthen as it continues westward toward the Lesser Antilles, NOAA noted.

Pictured: The aftermath of Cyclone Biparjoy

18:30 , Louise Boyle

UK and Ireland’s coastal waters experience ‘one of the most extreme’ heatwaves ever

18:50 , Louise Boyle

A severe marine heatwave in the coastal waters of the UK and Ireland is posing a major threat to sea life and the entire ecosystem.

The UK is experiencing its warmest June in decades and waters around the country are also smashing records. Some coastal waters in England are up to 5 degrees Celsius higher than normal.

In the west of Ireland, the marine heatwave has been designated a Category 5 - meaning it is “beyond extreme”, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Areas off the UK coast are at Category 4 - considered “extreme” levels of heat.

Stuti Mishra has more from The Independent’s climate desk below.

UK and Ireland coastal waters experience ‘one of the most extreme’ heatwaves ever

Pictured: The path and timings of Tropical Storm Bret

19:10 , Louise Boyle