Will he stay or go? UNC star RJ Davis’ decision reflects college basketball’s new reality

In a different and not-too-distant era of college basketball, RJ Davis might never have stuck around long enough to become North Carolina’s leading scorer and the ACC Player of the Year. He might’ve left school, as an endless number of college players always did, in pursuit of a professional career and the compensation that comes with it, either in the NBA or overseas.

In that world, Davis would’ve missed some things. He would’ve missed some of those moments he has come to treasure at UNC over the past several seasons, for one. He would’ve missed the commercial opportunities that have come his way the past few years, since college athletes have been able to profit from endorsement deals. He might’ve been in a hurry to get going.

Now, though, he’s part of a growing number of players faced with a different kind of question in this still-new college basketball reality: Since college athletes can make money — and a lot of it, in some cases — what is the cost of leaving school early?

Davis already has played four seasons at UNC and could return for one more. He’s part of the final class of athletes to whom the NCAA granted an additional year of eligibility, due to the pandemic. He recently offered few hints about his future during the final weeks of a season that he and his teammates believe ended too soon.

Davis talked his way out of inquiries about whether he’d be back. He kept his thoughts to himself. He became adept at saying something, in response to questions, without saying much of anything. The internal deliberation about staying or going was “definitely a tough decision,” he said the day before what turned out to be the Tar Heels’ final game.

“So that’s why I have to remain in the present moment and I’ll worry about it when I get there.”

Davis, who earned consensus All-American honors, has been “there” for a while now. UNC’s season ended March 28, with an 89-87 defeat against Alabama in an NCAA Tournament West Regional semifinal in Los Angeles. Davis walked out of the arena that night knowing he’d played his final game with this particular team. Knowing, maybe, that he’d played his final game at UNC.

Or maybe not?

Would pro basketball cost RJ Davis money?

For a long time the decision-making calculus was easier for college players in Davis’ position. If they wanted to get paid — at least in the above-board, not-against-NCAA-rules kind of way — they could choose to pursue a professional career. If the allure of remaining in school was too strong, they could always come back if they had remaining eligibility.

For years a great many college players turned pro, even if they faced long odds of making an NBA roster. Money was money, after all, whether in the NBA’s developmental league or in Europe or Asia, where professional leagues often offer lucrative salaries. And if a player had any chance of becoming a first-round selection in the NBA Draft, it was usually an easy decision to leave.

It likely still is, given the potential reward. Those players picked in the first round enter the NBA with guaranteed salaries in the millions. There are no such guarantees, though, for anyone selected in the second round, or for those who might work their way into an opportunity after going undrafted.

Davis, despite his accolades as a college player, is among many prospects on the margin. He has not been included in any mock draft for the NBA. At 6 feet and with a relatively slender build, his size is seen as a liability. And as great a scorer as he has proven to be in college, there are questions about how his game would translate to the NBA, which has become a league full of similarly-skilled guards — only ones who are more physically gifted.

In another time, and even with the skepticism about his pro prospects, Davis would have to leave school to earn a significant pay day. In this one, he might be faced with an upside-down kind of reality: that pursuing a professional career would likely cost him, financially, relative to his earning power as a high-profile player for a highly-visible college program.

Teammate Armando Bacot sets an example

Davis’ longtime UNC teammate, Armando Bacot, came to exemplify that kind of dynamic. Throughout his five college seasons, Bacot forged a rare kind of connection with UNC fans and became one of the Tar Heels’ most beloved players in recent memory. He set school records for rebounds and double-doubles and played in more games than anyone in ACC history.

Bacot became something of a UNC ambassador, too. As much as UNC fans appreciated him for what he did on the court, they adored him for his love of the school, and his loyalty. In a time of transience in college sports, with athletes transferring among schools at an ever-increasing rate, Bacot stayed in Chapel Hill.

But there also came to be the predictable jokes: Where else was he going to go?

As a 6-foot-10 forward in the mold of a traditional big man, he was never a coveted NBA prospect. And besides: In addition to his accomplishments as a player, Bacot also maximized his business opportunities. When college athletes in the summer of 2021 earned the right to profit from their name, image and likeness, Bacot became one of the early faces of a national movement.

As he approached his final college game last month, Bacot laughed at the thought of finally having to turn pro — and taking a possible pay cut in the process. At UNC, he understood his place as a star; a popular player on a high-profile college team. His marketability is not going to be the same if he winds up playing professionally overseas, or even as a fringe NBA player.

“Yeah, I mean, it is a possibility I take a pay cut next year,” Bacot said, smiling. He was setting up the punchline. “But luckily I’ve made a good amount of money, so I’m comfortable.

“I’m comfortable, for sure.”

Popular pitchman

Davis, meanwhile, finds himself in a similar position. He’s an immensely popular college player, who undoubtedly would be among the national faces of the sport next season if he comes back. There’s a legion of UNC fans hoping he does.

And also, he might well be at the height of his earning power. Bacot surmised that’s the case for a lot of standout college players whose professional prospects are less certain.

“I mean, (shoot) — all the top players, if they leave at this point it’d be a pay cut for everybody,” he said, adding that being a prominent college basketball player these days is “paying pretty good.”

Bacot during his final three college seasons endorsed an almost endless list of companies. He became a hit on Cameo, an online service where customers can pay high-profile athletes and other celebrities to record video messages. In a lot of ways, Bacot became one of college basketball’s first professional amateurs — a player who understood his monetary value might never be higher than it is now (or, was, for him), as a college basketball player.

At least in one way, Davis has followed the same path. Like Bacot, Davis has become a seasoned pitchman. Between late February and early April, he appeared in more than a dozen advertisements that he posted on his Instagram account. There were ads for Marriott; for a new Reebok shoe; for Wingstop, in which Davis and Bacot appeared together.

“I’ve got my guy Armando with me,” Davis said at the start of that one, at a table full of food, before Bacot looked into the camera and smiled and offered a humorous wave and an elongated, high-pitched, “Hiiiii.”

There were ads for Harry’s, the male grooming company, and SKIMS clothing, and TurboTax and Fortnite and Crocs and Hanes and Keurig, in which Davis and Deja Kelly, the former UNC women’s basketball player, “shot” coffee pods into a Keurig machine — loser pays for dinner, they said.

There was an ad in which Davis cracked open an Athletic non-alcoholic beer “so that I won’t have a hangover the next day,” and another in which he received a delivery order from CVS so he could “stay healthy on the road to a championship.” (Though, Davis then opened a bag that included Frosted Flakes, Pringles and Oreos — “my go-to snack.”)

It is unknown, publicly, how much compensation Davis received for all of these commercials. It’s fair to conclude, though, it’s not an insignificant sum — certainly enough to make a return to college worthwhile and financially lucrative, if that’s what he chooses to do.

The most recent commercial Davis shared on Instagram was for Zips, a drive-through car-washing company. In the spot, he goes around handing out free car wash passes to teammates and coaches. The most-liked response in the comment section under the post was predictable:

“That’s great,” one of Davis’ fans wrote. “Now come back 1 more year.”