The state of Shocker basketball: former WSU players, national media evaluate Isaac Brown

The Isaac Brown era has featured some of the most extraordinary circumstances in the history of the Wichita State men’s basketball team, which has made his three-year tenure a complicated one to evaluate.

It began in the most dire of situations, months into a world-altering pandemic and two weeks before the start of the 2020-21 season after legendary coach Gregg Marshall resigned amid abuse allegations.

As a first-time head coach, Brown guided an almost entirely remodeled roster, projected to finish seventh before the season, to the program’s first American Athletic Conference championship and an NCAA tournament berth. He was named the AAC Coach of the Year and earned the full-time job at WSU as a result of the unprecedented success.

“The situation he stepped in as a first-year head coach was such a firestorm,” ESPN college basketball analyst Mike O’Donnell said, “that I don’t know how many head coaches in the country, regardless of experience, would have been able to have as much success as he did.”

But WSU’s title defense was a major flop, as a talented roster never jelled and became the first WSU team since 2008 to not play in a postseason tournament after a lackluster 15-13 season.

Meanwhile, another unprecedented time in college basketball was unfolding around the country with players now having the ability to make money from their name, image and likeness. WSU was unprepared for the changing landscape, which played a role in the firing of athletic director Darron Boatright and the decisions of several key players leaving the program through the transfer portal.

“The roster stability at Wichita State since he became coach has been impossible to manage, let’s be fair here,” ESPN college basketball analyst Mark Adams said. “There was a mass exodus from the NIL debacle and a lot of that was out of his control.”

Brown has navigated the program through some of its most challenging times, without question, but the Shockers have also struggled to maintain the program’s high level of success recently.

While WSU has demonstrated progress this season, as seen in an 81-63 victory over Tulsa on Thursday, the Shockers likely need to win four games in four days at the American Athletic Conference tournament in Fort Worth this weekend to avoid missing postseason play for the second year in a row.

“It’s not acceptable,” Brown said before the tournament. “You always want to contend for conference championships. Obviously we didn’t get one this year, but I think those guys, even though we got off to a slow start, I just love the fact that they trusted the process. There’s a lot of high character in that locker room. They could have easily pointed fingers, but they stuck with it.”

ESPN considers Brown to be on the hot seat after compiling a 32-27 overall record, including a 16-19 mark against AAC competition and failing to sniff an NCAA tournament at-large bid in the last two seasons.

WSU’s advantage at Koch Arena has slipped, attendance has dipped and the constant roster turnover in the transfer portal has left a good chunk of the fan base yearning for the days of yesteryear.

“Coach Marshall obviously set the bar extremely high and then coach Brown came in that first year under difficult circumstances and won the AAC and set the bar high too,” said former Shocker great Aubrey Sherrod. “But the last two years have been a struggle. It’s been average and Shocker fans, they’re not used to average anymore.”

WSU athletic director Kevin Saal has stated he will wait until the conclusion of this season to evaluate the program.

In the meantime, The Eagle conducted a wide range of interviews — from current players and coaches to former players, from ESPN analysts on TV to national college basketball media members — to assess the current state of Shocker basketball.

The Shockers have improved this season

Mike O’Donnell is a former player and coach at the collegiate level and has observed countless coaching staffs in his time as a television analyst for ESPN.

He’s not sure if he’s encountered a team quite like Wichita State before.

The Shockers looked like they were playing in mud for the first two months of the season, as the offense had one of the worst shooting percentages in the country and worst assist rates in the country. But in the last two months, WSU’s offense has hummed to a tremendous shooting percentage and one of the best assist rates in the country.

“It’s hard to pinpoint, but it’s clear they made an adjustment about two months ago and they are running less ball screens and more off-ball screening actions,” O’Donnell said. “I think the spacing has dramatically improved and benefited from the changes and the ball movement is a lot better. They are a much different team than they were from earlier in the season.”

O’Donnell said it’s incredibly rare to see a coach significantly alter a team’s offense during the middle of a season like Brown did.

“There are very few coaches in the country who would be willing to adapt in the middle of a season,” O’Donnell said. “A lot of coaches won’t do that because of stubbornness or just uncertainty not thinking they can get their players to adapt quick enough. I think IB deserves a lot of credit for not just the basketball X’s and O’s, but also the culture side of it where he got his staff to buy into updating the system and he got the players to buy in. That takes a lot of guts, leadership and humility to do that and I really admire that. I have the utmost respect for people who identify something that isn’t working and having the toughness, grit and selflessness to try to fix it. Not everybody would do that.”

Fellow ESPN analyst Mark Adams has also been impressed by Brown’s growth as a head coach this season.

The change to an inside-out approach on offense has unlocked the play of sophomore center Kenny Pohto and senior forward James Rojas, who went from an afterthought at Alabama to a key player for the Shockers. Jaykwon Walton has blossomed at WSU in a breakout season and senior point guard Craig Porter has delivered a standout two-way season.

In the last two months of the season, the Shockers’ efficiency metrics on Bart Torvik rate them as the No. 62 team in college basketball — a borderline NCAA tournament bubble team and a clear improvement from the lackluster 7-8 start to the season.

Most importantly to Adams, he has seen WSU begin playing basketball as a team.

“I know it’s been a frustrating season for Wichita State fans, but there’s no question this team has shown improvement,” Adams said. “This team was made up of disparate parts at the start of the season and now they’re playing like they’re chain-linked. I think that’s a sign of not only Isaac growing as a coach, but also the staff itself coming together.”

Wichita State is better equipped in the NIL world

At the start of last offseason, WSU had failed to set up any kind of NIL collective and it showed.

A lackluster season certainly didn’t help, but the lack of NIL money prepared in Wichita sealed the deal for many of WSU’s high-profile players exiting the program.

Now that Armchair Strategies has been up and running for nearly a year, ESPN analyst Mark Adams believes Brown deserves the chance to show what he can do with WSU’s roster now that a WSU-based collective has been established. With the proper support, he says Brown can make WSU a winner again.

“I believe that can still take place, but this program needs stability and it also needs investment,” Adams said. “The question is if Wichita State can take the next step by securing its roster and by investing in their program in the way that’s needed to be a really good program. I think university leadership has to embrace what it really takes now in an NIL environment to take that next step to make Wichita State a proud Final Four, Elite Eight, Sweet 16-type of program again.”

From a national perspective, national college basketball writer Rob Dauster, founder of The Field of 68, was perplexed to hear about WSU’s struggles in the NIL space.

“In theory, the NIL era should be better for a school like Wichita State,” Dauster said. “They’re the most important sports team in that city and there’s very rich people connected to that university who should be able to put a lot of money into collectives and different deals to make sure there’s incentive for players to go there.”

By all accounts, new athletic director Kevin Saal has proven adept at maneuvering in the new NIL world. The representatives from Armchair Strategies rave about the support he has provided since taking the job and the collective is confident it is prepared to make WSU competitive in the NIL world in the near future.

Former Shocker star Ron Baker can also vouch for Saal’s work in less than a year on the job.

“Something we should all be looking forward to is the leadership under Kevin Saal,” Baker said. “I’m a big believer in him and I really do think that gentleman cares about his job. And he is a tremendous relationship builder. He is out there each and every day, so I would tell everyone to take the Joel Embiid approach and just trust the process.”

Attendance dips, as frustration mounts over home losses

The Roundhouse had a well-earned reputation as one of the toughest venues to win as a road team for a decade straight.

From the 2009-10 season to the 2020-21 season, WSU won 87% of its conference home games with a 92-14 record. The Shockers never lost more than three conference games at Koch Arena during that 12-year span, including an undefeated mark during Brown’s interim season when he won a championship.

In the last two years alone, WSU has lost 10 conference games at Koch Arena and has a losing record (8-10) overall. Many of those losses this season have featured WSU losing leads with poor ball handling and shot selection down the stretch of close games.

“I know the players, the coaches, the fans, everyone involved with the program doesn’t like losing at home,” said former All-American Ron Baker. “It’s such a remarkable place to play. I think when your final five to 10 minutes are slumping, it shows that you are losing attention to detail and accountability. Obviously you want to push those 30 good minutes closer to a full 40, which is easier said than done. A lot of the mistakes being made are all controllables, things you can see on film and learn from.”

Another former program great, Aubrey Sherrod, still lives in Wichita and has monitored the team from up close, attending practices, and from afar, watching games from his seat in Koch Arena.

He has seen the toll the home losses have taken on Brown personally.

“I know he is working hard and he wants the team to succeed so bad, but you have to continue to keep working hard and hopefully he can be in position again to turn this thing around,” Sherrod said. “He wants to make it right and I know he wants to get back on track with Shocker basketball winning at a high level and having that attitude of, ‘Let’s not let anyone come into our house and beat us.’”

There’s no doubt the home losses stacking up have been the driving factor behind WSU’s home attendance slumping to 7,137 this season, its lowest since the 1995-96 season.

After 17 straight seasons of 10,000-plus attendance, WSU’s home attendance has dipped significantly the last two years — but that’s the trend almost everywhere in the country following the pandemic and with the ability to watch from home more convenient than ever.

“Over the lean years in the 90s, we’ve always had that core 7,000 show up and 30 years later, we still have that core,” Sherrod said. “Now those 3,500, you hope we can get those people back in the arena. But let’s be honest, you have to win and that’s going to be the bottom line to get back to the 10,500 again.”

Baker also points out that WSU has been spoiled for years with some of the best attendance in the country. Even though it is significantly down by WSU standards, more than half of the teams in the country would take 7,137 attendance numbers in a heartbeat. WSU ranked fourth in the AAC this season in home attendance, behind Memphis, Cincinnati and Houston.

“I think we’ve got to look at it as a glass half-full situation,” Baker said. “There are a lot of loyal fans still coming out and we should be appreciative of those who are taking the time out to go support. Even though there has been disappointment this season, we’re still filling over half of Koch Arena every game and I think that’s something we should be proud of.”

Players shoulder some of the blame for this season

WSU senior Craig Porter has been with Brown for all three seasons of his tenure as head coach.

He’s been there to witness all of the ups and downs and in his opinion, Brown has been at his best this season.

WSU is still running many of the bread-and-butter plays it used to run under Gregg Marshall, but Brown has introduced several new wrinkles and play calls to the offense that have sparked the best offensive play from the Shockers since the 2017-18 season.

“Honestly, he’s a really good coach,” Porter said. “He’s been putting us in positions to get these wins this season. He’s teaching us every day the things we need to do, subtle, little things and bad habits that we need to cut out. In the games that we have lost, it’s just been us not making the plays. I feel like people forget that sometimes basketball games are just won and lost by the players making plays.”

WSU assistant coach Billy Kennedy has also seen the growth in Brown this season.

“I think he’s just more confident in what we’re doing,” Kennedy said. “The guys follow him and believe in him and what we’re doing. Whenever you bring in a lot of new players, it’s going to take time to get comfortable with each other. I think the biggest thing with coach Brown is that he’s getting comfortable calling the shots and being in that position. It takes a lot to get used to.”

That feeling-out period could explain some of WSU’s late-game collapses in the first two months of the season.

The Shockers have had a peculiar season where they have been a top-30 team on the road, according to Bart Torvik’s season-long efficiency measures, but the No. 129 team in home efficiency.

While ultimately the responsibility falls on the coaching staff, Sherrod says sometimes games are decided down the stretch by the players.

“As a former player myself, I feel like some of that does go back on the players,” said Aubrey Sherrod. “I’ve always felt like the coaches will put you in a position to succeed and it’s up to you to take responsibility and perform. There’s a reason why you’re on scholarship and you’ve been recruited here.

WSU basketball staring down a new reality with transfer portal

The old method of building a program through four-year recruiting classes is over, replaced by the year-to-year building through the transfer portal and with NIL money.

It’s a challenge unique to Brown and to this time.

“It’s really easy to sit back and criticize what’s going on with Wichita State, but people have to remember this is a way different time in college basketball,” Baker said. “It’s a different kind of kid, a different kind of recruit because they know they can leave in the portal if things don’t work out the way they want. So I think coaches have to approach kids a lot differently than you could have prior to the transfer rules changing. It’s so easy to criticize staff’s for not holding players accountable, but hell, these kids can leave you at semester now. It’s a tough gig right now.”

Brown flipped almost his entire roster from last season and won more games this season than last year’s Shockers, which arguably had more talent. After a 7-8 start to the season, WSU has won 10 of its last 16 games and out-performed its preseason projection by conference coaches.

In a vacuum, it’s not hard to see how that could be considered a successful season. The team has improved mightily from early in the season, but in the end, a .500 record in conference isn’t what WSU aspires to be — the program expects to compete for conference championships and NCAA tournament bids.

Baker believes there is a way to return to that level.

“I think we have to get guys into a structured and disciplined system and teach them basic character values,” Baker said. “You handle those things and show that to your community, show that to your fan base and I think that’s where the buy-in comes in. You get guys bought in, then that’s what ends up getting seats filled and getting wins and getting excitement in your community.”

But the constant turnover — WSU has returned less than half of its minutes from the previous season for four of the last five years now — has led to gripes from fans about not feeling the same connection with players anymore.

It also hasn’t helped when fans see so many former players — Ricky Council (Arkansas), Jamarius Burton (Pittsburgh), Dexter Dennis (Texas A&M), Erik Stevenson (West Virginia), Grant Sherfield (Oklahoma), Morris Udeze (New Mexico), Qua Grant (Sam Houston State) — have even more success at their new places.

Four-year players might be a thing of the past and the constant roster shuffle is another factor that has impacted attendance.

“There’s a lot of turnover at every university, not just Wichita State,” Sherrod said. “Personally, I think we as fans just have to adjust our mindset and really cheer for the front of the uniform. If you’re a true fan, you want the team to be successful, so you’re just going to have to cheer for the players that year. As we have seen, there’s probably going to be a different set of players every year. It’s a challenge, but if you’re a Wichita State fan, cheer for the players who are there now and enjoy the moment and hope we can get on that high ride again.”

What is Isaac Brown’s contract situation?

The 5-year contract negotiated between Brown and WSU in 2021 was clearly designed to give the first-time head coach at least three years on the job, a courtesy that every coach in the modern era of Shocker basketball has received.

That’s why the contract stipulates WSU would owe Brown 100% of the money remaining on his contract if the university decides to fire him without cause before May 1, 2024 — or about a month after his third season as full-time head coach.

If WSU decides to make a move following this season, Brown would be owed $4 million in separation payments made in monthly installments through April 30, 2026. That buy-out number would drop to $2.75 million immediately following the 2023-24 season and $1.375 million on May 1, 2024.

There is a mitigation clause, which states Brown would have an obligation to make a “reasonable and diligent effort to obtain comparable employment.” If he finds comparable employment before April 30, 2026, then WSU’s monthly separation payments would be reduced by the amount Brown is paid monthly in his new job.

What is Wichita State’s financial situation?

It’s a fair question to wonder how much WSU’s financial situation could factor into Saal’s decision.

WSU is in the process of shelling out nearly $8.5 million to former employees after settlements with men’s basketball coach Gregg Marshall, athletic director Darron Boatright and baseball coach Eric Wedge.

WSU is already paying nearly $1.8 million this fiscal year in severance pay, but payments to Boatright (June 9) and Wedge (Nov. 24) will be completed this calendar year. WSU is still on the hook for more than $4.7 million to Marshall, who will be paid through November 2026.

WSU’s financial records show the athletic department lost $9 million in revenue due to the pandemic — a $4.4 million drop in SASO memberships, a $3.9 million drop in ticket sales, a $1.3 million drop in contributions and nearly half-a-million in parking and concessions.

The good news is that WSU is finally starting to cash in on its AAC affiliation, as the money flowing in from media rights and conference distribution has increased dramatically. That helped WSU bounce back in the fiscal year of 2022, but its total revenue was around $1.3 million less than pre-covid and $4.5 million less than its first year in the American.

After WSU lost more than $9 million during the pandemic, the athletic department saw a nearly $3 million increase in net assets this past fiscal year. While trending in the right direction, WSU is still a long way from being in a cushy financial situation.

If WSU decides to move on from Brown following this season, the athletic department would be committing to paying three coaches at the same job — the two former coaches would be owed more than $8 million combined through 2026 on top of whatever contract the new coach commands.

National media question if program expectations are being met

When Brown was in the midst of his Cinderella run with the Shockers during the 2020-21 season, national college basketball Rob Dauster, founder of The Field of 68, strongly advocated for WSU to make him the permanent head coach.

Dauster still believes that was the right decision by WSU, but he wouldn’t blame a new athletic director for taking the program in a new direction after a second straight season where the Shockers are nowhere close to the NCAA tournament bubble.

“I think it’s a reasonable expectation for Wichita State to be a tournament team, especially considering the league they’re in,” Dauster said. “I don’t think the program was ever as good as what Gregg Marshall had it at when he was at his peak. There’s certainly a ceiling there, but the idea for that team in the American should be a consistent tournament team that every couple of years is good enough to be top-15 and make a run. The infrastructure is in place there where that’s what you should aspire to be. It shouldn’t be a situation where you’re missing two straight NCAA tournaments.”

Sports Illustrated’s Kevin Sweeney feels similarly.

“I don’t think Brown has necessarily done a bad job with this group and deserves credit for scrapping his way to 9-9 in the league after an 0-3 start,” Sweeney said. “But he hasn’t done much since that exciting run in 2021 to prove he’s the guy to get Wichita State to the NCAA tournament regularly long-term.

“If nothing else, I’d test the waters through backchannels to see what caliber of candidates are interested. Given the looming departures of Houston, Cincinnati and UCF from the AAC, it feels important to have a coach in place who can bring excitement and sell Wichita in recruiting.”

Dauster said he typically pushes for coaches to be given at least four years, one recruiting cycle, before assessing their future. But four-year recruiting cycles have been replaced by the year-to-year turnover in the transfer portal, which has made it harder to retain talent, but also easier to replenish rosters.

If WSU is confident it has NIL in order ahead of this offseason and believes Brown can recruit successfully from the transfer portal, then Dauster thinks it’s reasonable to bring Brown back. But if WSU has any doubts, he doesn’t think Brown would be “completely screwed over” if the university decided to make a move after this season.

“If you’re in that administration and you’re not trending in the right direction and believe there’s a better option out there, then they might decide to rip the band-aid off and make a change,” Dauster said. “To me, that would be perfectly reasonable too.”