Starting pitching remains Miami Marlins’ strength. Will they trade from it to improve team?

With the Miami Marlins’ 2022 season in the books, it’s time to start taking stock on where the organization stands, where improvements need to be made and how that can be done. Over the course of this week, the Miami Herald will break down the team by position groups. Today, we wrap up by discussing the starting rotation.

Since the start of the rebuild five years ago, starting pitching has been the Marlins’ strength.

That hasn’t changed.

But with Miami having as many as nine pitchers — not including Max Meyer, who is expected to miss all of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery — competing for five rotation spots, now might be the time to take advantage of that top-end starting pitching depth to acquire players of need for next season (like, say, a starting center fielder and/or a true middle-of-the-order bat).

Here’s a look at where the Marlins’ starting pitcher situation stands.

Sandy Alcantara, the Cy Young hopeful

All starting pitching discussions with the Marlins begin with their ace.

And Sandy Alcantara took a massive step forward this season to showing that he is one of MLB’s best.

He is the favorite to be named the National League Cy Young Award winner next month after leading MLB in innings pitched (228 2/3) and complete games (six) while also putting up a 2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .212 batting average against while striking out 207 batters and walking just 50.

The Marlins gave him a team-friendly contract extension last offseason that has him signed through the 2026 season with a club option for the 2027 season.

Or... he can also be viewed single-handedly as the Marlins’ biggest trade chip if they decided to go that route, a proven top-of-the-rotation starter that could easily net the offensive firepower the Marlins are pursuing.

(The latter, for what it’s worth, appears unlikely, but it’s a thought.)

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Pablo Lopez’s value

The talk surrounding the Marlins at the trade deadline centered on Pablo Lopez. He was having a career year as the calendar turned to August, and three playoff contenders in particular — the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals — pursued the 26-year-old righty.

Miami stood pat, not feeling they received an offer enticing enough to deal Lopez when there was no pressure to do so. Lopez, after all, is under team control for two more years.

But after Lopez made every one of his scheduled starts — 32 of 32 — for the first time in his career and put up solid numbers to go with it (180 innings pitched, 3.75 ERA, 174 strikeouts against 53 walks, .234 batting average again), expect trade discussions to pick up again this winter.

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Controllable lefties

The Marlins have three left-handed starting pitchers who are under team control for anywhere from three to five seasons, which on paper points to high trade values.

The trio: Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Braxton Garrett.

Luzardo had a breakout 2022 season, putting up career best marks in innings pitched (100 1/3) and strikeouts (120) while compiling a 3.32 ERA and .191 batting average against over 18 starts. His biggest downfall this season was missing more than two and a half months with a left forearm strain. Luzardo is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and is projected to make $2 million.

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Rogers was the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year runner-up. His follow-up campaign in 2022 was anything but award-worthy. Rogers posted a 5.47 ERA over 23 starts and struggled more often than he succeeded. He showed promise down the stretch, posting four consecutive quality starts after returning from a month hiatus due to back spasms, but that short span couldn’t completely erase the overall poor results that preceded it. He is not arbitration-eligible until after the 2023 season.

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Garrett, meanwhile, finally strung together quality performances and showed he can possibly be a bottom-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues. He started 17 games, putting up a 3.58 ERA with 90 strikeouts over 88 innings. The Marlins were impressed with his production and he has one minor-league option remaining, meaning he could start 2023 in the minors depending on the Marlins’ decisions.

Edward Cabrera’s progress

Injuries have hampered Edward Cabrera’s big-league journey so far.

When healthy, though, he showed he can be a top-line starter. Cabrera this season pitched to a 3.01 ERA over 14 starts, striking out 75 over 71 2/3 innings. But Cabrera also had his season delayed due to biceps muscle fatigue, missed time in the middle of the season with right elbow tendonitis, twice rolled his ankle late in the season and had a start cut short due to a blister.

Miami will have to judge the potential with the injury history.

And Cabrera, it should be noted, is out of minor-league options. That means, if healthy, one can expect Cabrera to either be part of the Marlins’ rotation in 2023 or be traded to get value out of him because the only way Miami can send him to the minor leagues would require them to put him through waivers.

Another Marlins’ ace in the making? Sandy Alcantara sees the qualities in Edward Cabrera

Top prospects

Down on the farm, the Marlins also have two burgeoning stars in Eury Perez and Dax Fulton.

Perez, the No. 9 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, spent his entire age-19 season pitching for Double A Pensacola, striking out 110 batters over 77 innings and pitching to a 3.97 ERA over 18 starts.

Fulton, the eighth-ranked prospect in Miami’s organization, made the jump from High A Beloit to Double A in late August and pitched to a 3.80 ERA overall this season with 150 strikeouts against 42 walks over 118 1/3 innings.

And let’s not forget about Jake Eder, who was dominant in 2021 before missing the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

What to make of Sixto Sanchez

And then there is the biggest wild card of them all.

Sixto Sanchez, the flamethrowing right-handed pitcher the Marlins acquired as the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade, has immense talent if he’s healthy.

But that’s the problem. He hasn’t been healthy. Sanchez hasn’t pitched in a game, excluding spring training, since his National League Division Series start against the Atlanta Braves on Oct. 8, 2020. That’s more than two years ago.

He has dealt with a slew of right shoulder injuries since then and has undergone two separate operations on the shoulder in as many years.

But Sanchez, like Cabrera, is out of minor-league options entering 2023. So if the Marlins plan to keep him, he will have to be on the big-league roster.

Marlins’ Sixto Sanchez, in his own words, explains his latest setback and next steps