What is at stake for Kentucky football vs. Louisville? More than just bragging rights.

The 2022 Governor’s Cup matchup between Kentucky and Louisville represents one of those rare instances where coaches and fans can be in agreement about the importance of a game.

Fans (and media) can afford to hype up certain opponents over others, but coaches insist a game is only more important than any other when it is the next one. With the annual rivalry played on the final weekend of the regular season, there is no question about the importance of the matchup now.

And for Kentucky there is more at stake than just bragging rights.

“I recognize that the first moment I walked in here that it’s important,” Stoops said. “I never shied away from that and I won’t. It’s important for our fan base and important to our team. It’s the last game of the year, and we need to go compete and play well.”

Beating Louisville will not erase all of the sour taste of disappointment from a season that began with dreams of contending in the SEC East and playing in a New Year’s Six bowl game, but it could at least change the narrative heading into what appears to be a pivotal month for the future of the program.

“These Kentucky people, they don’t play about Kentucky versus Louisville,” super senior linebacker Jordan Wright said. “... We run the state, so we try to stand on that.”

What is at stake for Kentucky against its archrival this year? Here is a look at the various implications of Saturday’s outcome.

Bowl placement

Back-to-back losses for Kentucky combined with South Carolina’s upset of Tennessee have dropped the Wildcats out of pole position to reach the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly known as the Outback Bowl) in Tampa, Florida, but winning Saturday would keep UK in play for most of the SEC’s “Pool of Six” bowl games. Among the SEC schools likely to be in play for the pool, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are already at eight wins. South Carolina can get to eight victories with an upset of rival Clemson in its regular-season finale. All three of those teams could be in the pool if Tennessee is dropped out of New Year’s Six bowl contention by the playoff committee.

But if the favorites hold serve this weekend, Kentucky, South Carolina and Arkansas could all finish the regular season at 7-5. In that scenario South Carolina and Arkansas would likely have preference over the Wildcats for their choice in the “Pool of Six,” which includes the ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Las Vegas and Liberty bowls, thanks to their 4-4 records in SEC play.

There remains a scenario where Kentucky is sent to Tampa if Mississippi State is picked by the Citrus Bowl, which selects an SEC team after the playoff committee fills the New Year’s Six games and before the league office assigns teams to the “Pool of Six” games and South Carolina opts for a different bowl game (perhaps the Gator Bowl, which is a closer drive for its fans). Arkansas played in the game last season and Ole Miss played there two years ago. The SEC tries to avoid repeat trips in a short window for its “Pool of Six” games. If the Gamecocks have the ReliaQuest Bowl top on their list though, the Music City, Las Vegas, Texas and Liberty bowls are the most likely for Kentucky since the Wildcats played in the Gator Bowl just two years ago.

A loss to Louisville means Kentucky would have little say in where it is sent on bowl selection Sunday. There is even a possibility in that scenario that the Wildcats fall out of the “Pool of Six” to the Birmingham Bowl if Vanderbilt upsets Tennessee to reach bowl eligibility and knock the Volunteers out of a New Year’s Six bowl game.

The future of the offense

The fallout of Kentucky’s loss to Vanderbilt this month has largely centered on the job security of offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello. Stoops was clear he had no interest in making staff changes in season, but he has also acknowledged he will evaluate what he wants the Kentucky offense to look like moving forward after the regular season ends.

Would a strong offensive showing against Louisville be enough to save Scangarello’s job? Kentucky scored more than 21 points in an SEC game only once this season, so it seems dangerous to put much stock in one non-conference game. But it also would be a strange look to make a coordinator change shortly after a rivalry win if the offense looks as dominant as it has in the last three meetings with Louisville.

Kentucky’s offense did show some progress against No. 1 Georgia, primarily on a 99-yard touchdown drive, but even Scangarello declined to spin that performance as proof the issues have been fixed this week.

“We had three drives in the first half; all three of them could have been scoring drives,” Scangarello said. “... Those plays, all the sudden that last drive you’re tied, you’re one score down. That’s where the confidence comes from. That’s the goal. Until we execute at that level, we’ve got to fight every day to be that team.”

Roster turnover coming

We know Saturday’s game will be the final home game for at least eight scholarship players who have exhausted their eligibility this season. Nine scholarship seniors who could come back to school next year thanks to the extra year of eligibility granted all players in 2020 are participating in Senior Day festivities Saturday in case they elect not to return to Kentucky. Of that group, we already know quarterback Will Levis and running back Chris Rodriguez are set to start their professional careers in the NFL Draft.

Three scholarship players listed as juniors on the roster — outside linebacker J.J. Weaver, wide receiver DeMarcus Harris and safety Taj Dodson — are participating in Senior Day. Weaver told reporters this week he has not made a final decision about entering the draft, but he acknowledged he is considering leaving Kentucky early.

Saturday’s result might not directly affect any of the stay-or-go decisions, but fans will need to savor the moment to see some of these players in Kroger Field for the final time.

It might even be the final game for Levis, a likely first-round draft pick, who said he has not made a decision about playing in Kentucky’s bowl game yet. A growing number of top draft prospects have opted out of playing in mid-tier bowl games in recent years.

“It’s something I haven’t even thought about,” Levis said. “I want to get through the season and then sit down with my family, talk to Coach Stoops and all that about that. I know people are wondering about that, but I really have no idea. I haven’t paid too much mind to it.”

Recruiting momentum

Recruits do not get as attached to single-game outcomes as fans, but beating Louisville would at least send Stoops and his staff into the December recruiting period with some buzz.

Four-star New Albany, Indiana, defensive tackle William “Woo” Spencer, who previously played at Male High School in Louisville, is among the top high school targets still remaining on Kentucky’s board for the 2023 class. U of L has also offered him a scholarship.

Before Stoops and company head on the road to recruit high school prospects in December, they must first determine which current scholarship seniors might elect to return for the extra year of eligibility and if any underclassmen are planning to enter the transfer portal. Meanwhile, the staff must keep an eye out for potential transfer additions, which could be key in filling holes at quarterback, offensive line and running back on next season’s roster.

Doing all that after a rivalry win will feel much better than selling the vision for the future after a loss and a bowl win needed to avoid a losing record.

Saturday

Louisville at Kentucky

When: 3 p.m.

TV: SEC Network

Radio: WLAP-AM 630, WBUL-FM 98.1

Records: Louisville 7-4 (4-4 ACC), Kentucky 6-5 (3-5 SEC)

Series: Kentucky leads 18-15

Last meeting: Kentucky won 52-21 on Nov. 27, 2021, at Louisville.