Spread Options: College football bowl game best bets, part 2
We got our first taste of bowl season over the weekend and now the action will carry on throughout the week.
We’ve had some really good games so far and a few clunkers. But that’s the nature of these bowl games. Some teams can be total no-shows (looking at you, Florida) while others are extremely motivated to get a postseason victory.
There’s at least one game every day this week other than Christmas, so college football will be there to keep you company. For these picks, we’re focusing on the nine games on the schedule from Monday, Dec. 19 through Monday, Dec. 26.
Let’s see if we can provide some winners.
(All times ET, odds from BetMGM)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Marshall vs. UConn
Date: Dec. 19 (2:30 p.m.) | Line: Marshall -10.5 | Total: 40.5
Nick Bromberg: The job Jim Mora Jr. did at UConn to get the Huskies to a bowl game for the first time in seven years was remarkable. UConn has been outscored by more than six points per game this season and lost by 17 to Army to end the season. But with the total for this game set so low at 40.5, I’m banking on the UConn defense to keep this one close, especially since the Huskies are getting more than 10 points.
Pick: UConn +10.5
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty
Date: Dec. 20 (7:30 p.m.) | Line: Toledo -5 | Total: 54
Sam Cooper: It’s hard to ignore how poorly Liberty played in the season finale vs. New Mexico State, but I think the Hugh Freeze-Auburn distraction played a huge part in that day’s effort. With Freeze out of the picture and nearly a month to reset, Liberty has a chance to end the season on a high note. Toledo won the MAC title but did so against an Ohio team without its starting quarterback. Dequan Finn is a dynamic player for the Rockets, but I don’t think Toledo is five points better than Liberty. I’ll take the underdog.
Pick: Liberty +5
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky
Date: Dec. 21 (9 p.m.) | Line: USA -4.5 | Total: 56
Nick Bromberg: Both of these teams score over 30 points per game and WKU gives up nearly 24 points per game. This line would be a lot different if QB Austin Reed hadn’t announced that he was staying at WKU after taking his name out of the transfer portal. Reed threw for 36 TDs in 2022. With Reed on the field, I think this game goes over.
Pick: Over 56
Sam Cooper: South Alabama is having its best season as an FBS member and can make it even better by notching its first-ever bowl win. USA has only two losses this season — a one-point road loss to UCLA and then a 10-6 loss to Troy, the Sun Belt champions. I have a lot of faith in Kane Wommack’s defense to keep a high-powered WKU offense in check, even with Austin Reed withdrawing from the transfer portal. And Reed wasn’t the only member of WKU’s program with wandering eyes. Tyson Helton’s name came up in multiple coaching searches, including Purdue last week. I like the cohesiveness and focus to shine through for the Jaguars.
Pick: South Alabama -4.5
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Air Force
Date: Dec. 22 (7:30 p.m.) | Line: Baylor -5.5 | Total: 48
Nick Bromberg: No one has scored more than 20 points in a game against Air Force since Utah State won 34-27 on Oct. 8. That’s a streak of six straight games, albeit all were against non-Power Five competition. Baylor’s offense is better when it runs the ball and two running offenses could mean a fairly quick game. And a relatively low-scoring one.
Pick: Under 48
Sam Cooper: There are reasons to question the level of motivation for Baylor. After winning the Big 12 and the Sugar Bowl last year, BU is now 6-6 and facing an option team in a bowl played on the campus of one of its in-state rival TCU (who happen to be in the College Football Playoff). At the same time, Baylor is frustrated with the way its season ended with three straight losses. Dave Aranda fired defensive coordinator Ron Roberts and will call the defense. Before he became a head coach, he was one of the nation’s top coordinators. BU should be able to handle the option while also leaning on its own rushing attack. Baylor was 1-4 in games where Blake Shapen had 30 or more passing attempts. In a game where I’m expecting a lot of running, the under is the play.
Pick: Under 48
Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana
Date: Dec. 23 (3 p.m.) | Line: Houston -7 | Total: 58.5
Sam Cooper: There’s no way you should trust Houston to cover this spread. UH was the most volatile and unpredictable team in the country and Dana Holgorsen is 2-7 all-time against the spread in bowl play. This team had big-time aspirations when the season began. There was even talk that UH could make a Cincinnati-type run to the playoff. Instead, UH is 7-5 and concluding its season in lovely Shreveport. Louisiana, meanwhile, played much better late in the year. UL nearly upset Troy and then got to bowl eligibility with convincing wins over Georgia Southern and Texas State. Playing in its home state, I think Louisiana will be far more interested in playing this game. I’ll take the touchdown.
Pick: Louisiana +7
Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Date: Dec. 23 (6:30 p.m.) | Line: Wake Forest -1.5 | Total: 60.5
Sam Cooper: There were some weird vibes with Wake Forest over the last half of the season. The Demon Deacons lost four of five, beginning with that game where they had six third-quarter turnovers in the loss to Louisville. Dave Clawson has already been on the record that this is Sam Hartman’s last game at Wake — whether he goes into the NFL or the transfer portal. Missouri, meanwhile, played much tougher competition in the SEC and seemed to turn the corner on offense late in the year. The difference was using Brady Cook’s legs. The first-year starting QB combined for 315 rushing yards in Missouri’s final three games. During that 1-4 stretch, Wake Forest’s defense allowed an average of 36.6 points per game.
Pick: Missouri +1.5
