College football betting: 10 best win total bets entering the 2021 season
The college football season is right around the corner.
Believe it or not, we're less than three weeks away from the first batch of games of the 2021 season. With the season so close, we dove into the win totals set by the oddsmakers over at BetMGM.
More and more focus will be paid to the futures market as we inch closer to the season, so some of these numbers could shift in the coming days. Let’s take a look at 10 teams that caught our eye.
(All odds via BetMGM.)
Arkansas under 5.5
Arkansas entered 2020 with a 20-game SEC losing streak, so the fact that the Razorbacks went 3-7 against an SEC-only schedule felt triumphant. Sam Pittman has brought some juice to this program, and it’s definitely trending in a positive direction with talented players like Treylon Burks and Trelon Smith on offense and a ton of returning production on defense. At the same time, it’s hard to find six wins on this schedule — especially with inexperience at quarterback. The Razorbacks play Texas in the non-conference, have Georgia as a road crossover game and also play Ole Miss, LSU and Alabama all on the road. A 5-7 or 4-8 record feels far more likely than 6-6 to me.
Boston College under 7
Boston College was much better than expected in Year 1 under Jeff Hafley, but I think that has caused the Eagles to enter 2021 a tad overrated. Sure, Phil Jurkovec and Zay Flowers are two of the better offensive players in the ACC, but the Eagles really struggled running the ball and were not very good defensively. Hafley is a defensive coach by trade, so you’d expect some improvement there. The secondary should be solid, but I have a lot of questions about the front seven. With the win total at 7, I lean way more toward 6-6 than 8-4 for BC in 2021.
Illinois over 3.5
Illinois fired Lovie Smith but returns a huge number of fifth- and sixth-year seniors under Bret Bielema in 2021. Smith had the Illini playing a far more competitive brand of football as his tenure progressed. They even reached a bowl game in 2019. With so much experience back, including QB Brandon Peters, I don’t think it’s far-fetched at all to think this team can win a few Big Ten games. Winning non-conference home games against UTSA and Charlotte becomes vital if you’re taking the over 3.5, but I think it’s a good value here. The Illini have won at least two conference games in six of the last seven seasons.
Miami under 9.5
Adding offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee and quarterback D’Eriq King last offseason paid off in a big way for Miami. An offense that was stagnant in 2019 was exciting and explosive in 2020, helping the Hurricanes improve from 6-7 to 8-3. Expectations are high entering 2021 with the win total at BetMGM set at 9.5.
As much as that offense improved in 2020, I’m not sure this is a team that can win 10 regular season games — something Miami has done just once in the last 17 seasons. My main concerns are what I think is an overrated receiving corps and the NFL-level talent lost from last year’s defense, especially among the pass-rushers. The Hurricanes ranked in the bottom half of the ACC vs. the run. In 2021, I’m penciling in two losses: Alabama in Week 1 and at North Carolina. This program has routinely played below its talent level in recent years. To land under 9.5, you just need one disappointing loss.
NC State over 6.5
Behind Clemson, the rest of the ACC Atlantic tends to really blend together. In 2021, though, I could easily see NC State sliding into that No. 2 spot in the division.
Other than a 4-8 blip in 2019, NC State has won at least seven games in every season since 2014. Why would that be different in 2021? There are winnable games most weeks even though a bunch of NC State’s perceived toss-up games (like Wake Forest, Boston College and Florida State) are on the road. Still, the Wolfpack have a very navigable non-conference schedule and 19 starters returning, including Devin Leary back from injury at QB and star linebacker Payton Wilson. A 7-5 record feels very achievable.
Nebraska under 6.5
The clock is ticking on Scott Frost in Lincoln. Frost, after a dazzling run at UCF, was expected to revitalize a struggling program with a tradition of winning at a high level. Over his first three years, that expected transformation has not even come close to materializing. Frost has a 12-20 record with a 9-17 mark in Big Ten play. Entering 2021, the win total is set at 6.5. I am playing the under. Offensively, I just don’t trust QB Adrian Martinez. This is his fourth year as the team’s starter, and he hasn’t taken that step forward everybody expected. Beyond Martinez, there is a lack of proven competency at the skill position spots. I don't think the defense is very good either.
Oregon State over 4.5
Oregon State fell off a cliff after the departure of Mike Riley, but there’s now reason for optimism under OSU alum Jonathan Smith. Oregon and Washington are pretty clearly the top two teams in the Pac-12 North, but I think the Beavers can be just as competitive as the rest of the division in 2021. Smith has proven his offenses can put up points, but the defense has had a tough time. With marginal improvement on that side of the ball, a bowl game could be in OSU’s grasps. Don’t be shocked if OSU wins at Purdue in Week 1. The Beavers are currently 5.5-point underdogs at BetMGM.
Penn State over 8.5
The 2020 season was rough for Penn State. Before the season, it lost two of its best players, RB Journey Brown (medical) and LB Micah Parsons (opt-out), before a heartbreaking Week 1 loss at Indiana spiraled into an 0-5 start. PSU rebounded, though, and won its final four games. Will that momentum carry into 2021?
Before 2020, PSU won at least nine regular season games in its previous four seasons. The Nittany Lions didn’t all of a sudden lose the level of talent that had them consistently in the top 10 in the country. The 2020 season feels more like a blip than a sign of things to come for me. If QB Sean Clifford reverts back to the way he played in 2019, nine or 10 wins feels very realistic even with a difficult schedule that includes Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State on the road and a non-conference game vs. Auburn.
SMU over 6.5
Sonny Dykes has been a great fit at SMU. The Mustangs are 17-6 combined over the past two seasons and have 18 returning starters back from a very solid 2020 team that went 7-3. Shane Buechele is not one of those returnees, but there are high hopes for Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai at quarterback to pair with an excellent group of skill position players. Other than a trip to TCU, the non-conference slate is a breeze. Drawing UCF and Cincinnati from the AAC East is tough, but there’s a pretty clear path to at least seven wins in this schedule. Frankly, I’d be shocked if SMU didn’t get there.
Tennessee under 6
In 2020, Tennessee went 3-7 and then fired Jeremy Pruitt amid an embarrassing internal investigation. After three years at UCF, Josh Heupel was brought in to pick up the pieces in Knoxville. UT has some talent, but lost many of its top players to transfer. I have a hard time envisioning this team in a bowl game in 2021. Besides, was anybody really impressed by what Heupel did at UCF? He inherited a team that went undefeated in 2017, and then his teams progressively got worse. Sure, those teams scored a lot of points. But they allowed a lot of points too and were alarmingly undisciplined. That’s not a good recipe in a place as volatile as Knoxville, especially with a lingering NCAA investigation.
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