NBA series betting: MVP Nikola Jokic tries to lift Nuggets to upset of Warriors

Nikola Jokic won NBA MVP last season and is the runaway favorite to win another one this season. He gives the Denver Nuggets a chance in the playoffs.

The problem is, Jokic is the only reason the Nuggets have a chance. Joel Embiid has James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo has Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, Devin Booker has Chris Paul and Jokic has ... Will Barton? Nothing against Barton, Aaron Gordon or Monte Morris, but the Nuggets would be in the running for worst record in the NBA without their soon-to-be two-time MVP.

That's what makes it hard to buy the Nuggets beating the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the playoffs. Jokic would have to be a superhero to get Denver the series win. He was practically a superhero in the regular season, and that was only good enough for the No. 6 seed.

Warriors favored despite Steph Curry's status

The Warriors are -225 favorites at BetMGM to win the first-round series. The Nuggets are +180.

Golden State has its own issues, particularly with Steph Curry's health. He hasn't played since March 16 due to a foot injury. The team has not given any indication whether Curry will play in Game 1, or when he might return.

"We'll see how everything goes with Steph next week," Warriors coach Steve Kerr told reporters on Sunday, via SF Gate. "There is a chance he could be ready for Game 1, there is a chance he might not. It's literally going to be a day-to-day thing as it unfolds this week. We'll know a lot more after the next few days when he's ramping up his work."

Even if Curry plays, will he be on top of his game after a month off? It's murky at best.

So you have one team potentially without a two-time MVP but with a great supporting cast that could carry the team to a win, against a team without a great supporting cast but has a two-time MVP who could carry his team to a win.

It's an interesting matchup, if nothing else.

Nikola Jokic had a phenomenal season

Anyone who says Jokic doesn't deserve MVP again hasn't paid enough attention. He averaged 27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists, shot 58.1% from the floor and was the second-best defensive player in the league according to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR metric. According to FiveThirtyEight, Jokic's WAR (wins above replacement) was 22.7. No other player was above 13.2.

Whether you believe all the metrics or rely on traditional stats, Jokic was outstanding all season. He was at his best against the Warriors. Jokic averaged 28 points, 15.8 rebounds and 8.8 assists against Golden State. The Nuggets went 3-1 in the season series.

Betting the Warriors probably isn't the best idea because -225 is steep. If you want to make a case for the Nuggets, based on Jokic's dominance, Curry's uncertainty and the Nuggets winning three of four against the Warriors this season, it's justified given the odds. It's just hard to buy into Jokic winning this series practically by himself.

The pick: Warriors -225