Fantasy Football: Dallas Goedert leads overvalued tight ends in drafts

ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average ranks of many members of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site).

This will be an ongoing series highlighting some big differences between ECR and my own ranks. Knowing your league’s ADP/scoring remains equally important when drafting, but I rank the following tight ends lower than the general fantasy community.

Players who should go higher: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

Players going too early: Quarterback

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (ECR = TE7 vs. DDD = TE10)

Goedert’s fantasy value seemed to be on the rise entering the offseason, but it now appears Zach Ertz is likely to return to Philadelphia. Moreover, Goedert failed his conditioning test, and there are real questions about the team’s new coaching staff (including a first-time play caller/head coach). Over the last three seasons, Carson Wentz had the highest percentage of throws to tight ends among all quarterbacks, but he’s no longer in Philadelphia. New starter Jalen Hurts infrequently targeted his tight ends in college, although the Eagles’ current personnel should change that. Goedert is a candidate for further growth and a fine top-10 fantasy TE, but he’s being a bit over-drafted now that it’s looking increasingly likely the anticipated added volume just might not be there. Give me Irv Smith Jr. instead.

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (ECR = TE10 vs. DDD = TE13)

Tonyan killed it for fantasy managers last season as a waiver wire pickup who scored 11 touchdowns (tied with Travis Kelce) at the game’s thinnest position. He did so while seeing just 59 targets though, so realize Tonyan’s floor is low once Green Bay’s TD regression hits. Put differently, Tonyan pulling down a touchdown on 18.6% of his catches is historically unsustainable, nor is it a sign that increased targets are to come. The Packers also go from having an extremely easy pass defense schedule in 2020 to one that projects to be among the toughest this season.

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ECR = TE16 vs. DDD = TE23)

Gronkowski returned from retirement to play all 16 regular-season games and score two touchdowns in the Super Bowl, as his legend continues to grow. Remarkably, it was the first time he played 16 games in a season since 2011, but Gronk is now a year older and coming off a postseason run into February. Tom Brady attempted the second-most throws in the end zone last season, and his rapport with Gronkowski is obviously a plus, but O.J. Howard returns after he missed most of last season. Not to mention, there might not be a more crowded WR room than Tampa Bay's, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown all vying for targets. I’d draft Anthony Firkser ahead of Gronk eight days a week.

Evan Engram, New York Giants (ECR = TE15 vs. DDD = TE18)

Volume is usually king in fantasy football, and Engram finished fourth in targets among tight ends last season. The result was just one touchdown, a bunch of drops, and a lowly 6.0 yards per target mark that ranked No. 33 at his position. Injuries and an inability to stay on the field had previously been Engram’s biggest issue, but we can now add production to the list.

The Giants gave Kenny Golladay a big contract and drafted Kadarius Toney in the first round during the offseason while also bringing back Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton to form a crowded WR group. It’s possible a serious leg injury was to blame for Danny Dogecoin’s awful 2020, but the Giants still enter with a major question mark at quarterback. With heavy competition for targets, a long injury history, and an inability to play football well, Engram is an easy pass at draft tables.

Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots (ECR = TE14 vs. DDD = TE20)

Smith has enticing skills and was given a big deal in New England, but he joins a Patriots team that also signed Hunter Henry (and WR Nelson Agholor) during the offseason. The Patriots targeted the tight end position 33 times last season, good for last in the league; by comparison, the first-place Raiders threw to the position 172 times. Of course, that will change dramatically given the huge upgrades in personnel, but it’s also something to consider if Cam Newton somehow keeps the starting job long. Smith is also regarded as the superior blocker, for what it’s worth.

Of course, we’ve seen two tight ends thrive at once in New England before, and the new plan is to have a Boston TE party, but volume simply has to be a major concern for both Smith and Henry. If you’re drafting a New England pass catcher, make sure it’s Jakobi Meyers.

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