Betting PGA: Here’s how to back Scottie Scheffler in the Scottish Open

The PGA heads across the pond to the UK to play at Renaissance Golf Club for the Scottish Open as a lead-up event to the Open Championship next week.

The scorecard reads just under 7,300 yards. However, it should play a bit longer with three par-fives that extend over 575 yards and three par-threes at over 200 yards with windy conditions. Since we don’t have strokes gained data from previous Scottish Open events, I’m looking at recent form, consistency and good ball strikers.

Here are two full-tournament head-to-head wagers to play this week.

Scottie Scheffler (+110) vs. Jon Rahm

This year, Rahm went on a ‘bad’ stretch of losing strokes both around the green and putting. I use quotes because despite the red marks in his short game, Rahm was still finishing Top 20 or better. It appears Rahm is back on course because after losing strokes around the green in five straight events, he has now gained (or at least been neutral) in six of his last seven played. After winning the Mexico Open in early May, Rahm has had back-to-back top-12 finishes in the Memorial and a solo 12th at the U.S. Open. So why the fade?

There's plus-money value on the better player right now. This year, Scheffler has been the better iron player while being solid off the tee. He's gained an average of nearly strokes in his last four tournaments played, which includes a solo second-place finish in the U.S. Open. For a course like this, I’m less interested in the short game and putting. With the greens being as slow as they are, it can be a bit neutralizing to the field. Instead, I’m more interested in the ball striking and that’s where Scheffler has the edge. The Longhorn has four titles to his name this year alone, but since April, Scheffler leads the field in strokes gained approach. strokes gained ball striking, and strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained total.

Rahm is getting the boost for his seventh-place finish in last year’s tournament, but I’m a believer in Scheffler this year.

Ryan Fox (-125) vs. Billy Horschel

Fox is not a recognizable name on tour. This year, he has only a 54th-place finish in the PGA Championship and a missed cut in the U.S. Open. On the Euro tour, however, the New Zealand pro has two DP including one this year. In 2022, Fox has been on a bit of a tear on the Euro tour, finishing T15 or better in seven of his last nine events, including three runner-ups. His two misses are the two unimpressive results stateside. His comfort seems to be on that side of the pond.

Horschel did win the Memorial Tournament in June but his game is very volatile. Billy Ho loses strokes in every category in any week with no consistency as to what is on or off. I’ll back the player who has comfort playing outside the U.S. and producing consistent results this year. It's a stacked field, but at +200 for a Top 20, that's worth a risk for backing Fox.