When will South Florida, Keys see the worst of Ian, and when will bad weather clear out?

A tornado watch has been added to South Florida’s list of local weather worries associated with Hurricane Ian.

On Tuesday, the National Weather Service in Miami issued a tornado watch through 5 a.m. Wednesday for most of southeast Florida. Two tornadoes have already touched down in Broward, causing havoc in several cities including flipping several planes at North Perry Airport.

READ MORE HERE: Two tornadoes tear through Broward, while Ian hounds Florida as a major hurricane

All of South Florida — including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and the Florida Keys — were under a tropical storm warning Tuesday ahead of Ian, which is forecast to make landfall near Sarasota area as a Category 4 hurricane some time Wednesday or Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

READ MORE HERE: Hurricane Ian forecast to strike west Florida earlier and harder as track moves south

Pedestrians brace against the rain and wind with umbrellas in hand as they cross the street at Brickell City Center in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. All of South Florida is now in alert for Hurricane Ian’s tropical storm-force winds. Daniel Varela/dvarela@miamiherald.com
Pedestrians brace against the rain and wind with umbrellas in hand as they cross the street at Brickell City Center in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. All of South Florida is now in alert for Hurricane Ian’s tropical storm-force winds. Daniel Varela/dvarela@miamiherald.com

When will South Florida see the worst of Ian?

Since Monday evening into Tuesday, we’ve already been getting the outer rain bands from Ian across South Florida, said meteorologist Larry Kelly of the National Weather Service in Miami.

Within those rain bands, heavy rainfall of 6 to 8 inches into Thursday can lead to flooding, including flash flooding. Wind gusts in these bands could run from 39 to 73 mph in some parts of South Florida and the Keys — the range of tropical storm winds.

READ MORE: Tropical storm warning for parts of South Florida

According to NBC6 meteorologist Adam Berg, Doppler radar estimates already showed six to seven inches of rain, and more had already fallen across portions of Miami-Dade and the Keys by early Tuesday afternoon.

“Conditions are going to deteriorate today and continue through Wednesday,” Kelly told the Miami Herald. “As we move throughout the day today and tomorrow, those bands will become more frequent, and the repeated rounds of heavy rain will then increase the flooding rain threat, and those gusty winds will become more frequent as [Ian] gets a little closer to the Florida peninsula. And then the other threat is, we’re on the favorable side of the system for tornadoes. So that threat is also getting an increase already here this morning.”

The threat from these possible tornadoes continues through Wednesday in South Florida and the Keys.

The National Weather Service in the Keys issued a tornado watch warning Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022, as a result of Hurricane Ian’s likely tropical storm-force winds. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out through South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday as Ian approaches Florida’s west coast on the way to landfall. National Weather Service
The National Weather Service in the Keys issued a tornado watch warning Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022, as a result of Hurricane Ian’s likely tropical storm-force winds. Tornadoes can’t be ruled out through South Florida Tuesday and Wednesday as Ian approaches Florida’s west coast on the way to landfall. National Weather Service

Not that many are planning on swimming or boating or sunning along our beaches, but hazardous marine and beach conditions are, of course, expected. There is a high risk for rip currents across all South Florida beaches, the weather service said. Dangerous surf conditions are expected along the Gulf coast into mid-week.

“Life-threatening surge” could have significant impacts along portions of Florida Bay in extreme far southern Miami-Dade County adjacent to Everglades National Park, the weather service warned Tuesday. “Minor impacts are possible along the southeastern coast of South Florida due to increased onshore flow and tides running above normal.”

When will weather improve across South Florida?

We will have to wait to see a clearing trend of South Florida’s nasty weather to begin Thursday, Kelly said.

“Those conditions will improve from south to north. The first to clear out will be the Keys and then Miami, and then as we work our way up the coasts throughout the day on Thursday, conditions will improve,” he said. Broward and Palm Beach counties could still see some tropical storm-force winds persisting into Thursday, according to the weather service.

On Wednesday, and even on Thursday, watch for flooded roadways, which could make driving hazardous. Don’t race through flooded streets and avoid them if you can.

“If you encounter flooded roadways, turn around, don’t try to drive through it. You don’t know how deep that water is that you’re about to drive through.”

Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and the Florida Keys are under a tropical storm warning, meaning tropical-storm-force winds are expected in 36 hours. National Weather Service
Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and the Florida Keys are under a tropical storm warning, meaning tropical-storm-force winds are expected in 36 hours. National Weather Service

Weekend forecast

The South Florida forecast for Friday and the weekend improves significantly. The Keys only eyes a slight 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday night through Monday, with temperatures in the upper 80s and a low of around 80, according to the weather service.

Miami-Dade and Broward has a 70% chance of storms Thursday, with Broward potentially a bit rougher, dropping to 50% Thursday night and Friday and 30% Friday night. Storm chances are 40% Saturday and Sunday.

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