South Carolina’s latest bracketology projections, SEC championship scenarios
The final week of the college basketball regular season is here. The season that started with more questions than answers will end with a bang: an all-out battle for the SEC regular-season crown.
Lamont Paris’ Gamecocks (24-5, 12-4 SEC) have two more games to put an exclamation point on their historic regular season and set themselves up for next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville.
Here’s a look at what bracketology predictions are saying about USC’s seeding outlook for March Madness and how its postseason resume looks after going 2-0 last week.
Battle for the SEC
South Carolina has an opportunity this week to clinch a share of the SEC regular season title — or win it outright. The Gamecocks are currently in a tie for second place with Alabama and one game behind first-place Tennessee. The team with the best record within the conference wins the title.
If there’s a tie at the top, each of those teams will be crowned the SEC regular-season champion. Tiebreakers are only used to determine seeding in the conference tournament. According to the SEC, two-way ties will be broken by head-to-head records, and three-way ties are determined by a round robin-style record.
Here is how USC can at least clinch a share of the conference title:
If USC wins both of its games this week (home vs. Tennessee; at Mississippi State), the Gamecocks are guaranteed at least a share of the SEC title. If Tennessee beats USC on Wednesday, the Gamecocks cannot win the SEC regular season.
To win the SEC title outright and be the No. 1 seed, USC needs to win both its games, have Tennessee goes 0-2 and Alabama do no better than 1-1.
If USC and Alabama both win their two games this week and Tennessee goes 0-2, South Carolina would share the title with Alabama but the Crimson Tide would hold the tiebreaker and the No. 1 seed in the tournament by virtue of a head-to-head win over the Gamecocks.
If USC and Alabama win both their games and Tennessee splits, there would be a three-way tie for regular-season title and USC would earn the No. 1 seed from a round-robin tiebreaker. (In games featuring two of the three tied teams, USC would be 2-1, Tennessee would be 2-2, Alabama would be 1-2.)
Tennessee visits South Carolina and hosts Kentucky to end its season, while Alabama visits Florida and hosts Arkansas.
Tennessee wins the SEC regular-season title outright if it goes 2-0 this week — or if they need to at least beat USC and have Alabama split its games. Alabama wins the SEC regular-season title outright if it goes 2-0, if USC splits and if Tennessee goes 0-2.
The Gamecocks will secure a top four seed (and a double-bye) in the SEC Tournament, without relying on outside results, by winning at least one of their final two games.
AP Top 25 update
The Gamecocks moved up one spot this week in The Associated Press Top 25 to No. 17. The USA Today Coaches poll put USC at No. 16.
South Carolina’s win over then-No. 24 Florida on Saturday was the first matchup between two Top 25 teams at Colonial Life Arena this season. USC picked up its seventh Quad 2 win over the Gators in the 82-76 victory.
Five SEC teams cracked the Top 25 heading into the final week of the regular season, with USC the lowest. The other teams include No. 4 Tennessee, No. 13 Auburn, No. 15 Kentucky and No. 16 Alabama.
South Carolina’s NCAA tournament projections
South Carolina is an overall No. 6 seed for, reaching as high as a five seed and as low as an nine seed, according to 93 NCAA Tournament bracket projections averaged by Bracket Matrix. Other six seeds include St. Marcy’s (California), Washington State and Dayton. The last Bracket Matrix update was published on Sunday.
CBS Sports’ bracketology update, done by Jerry Palm and updated Sunday morning, lists the Gamecocks as a No. 5 seed in the Pittsburgh regional and facing No. 12 seeded South Florida in the first round. No. 4 Duke and No. 13 Appalachian State are the opposite matchup for the second round in the regional projection from CBS. USC would be in the Midwest bracket, with Purdue as the No. 1 seed of that region.
ESPN’s bracketology’s last update was updated on Tuesday, with USC listed there as a No. 6 seed in the Pittsburgh regional. Its projected first-round matchup would be against a No. 11 seed, the winner of the Seton Hall vs. Virginia play-in game, with No. 3 Kansas and No. 14 Vermont playing the opposite side. ESPN’s bracket also has USC in the East quarter, making UConn the No. 1 seed as well.
USC’s March Madness resume
South Carolina’s latest NET ranking is No. 47, moving the Gamecocks up one spot from their position of No. 48 a week ago.
The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) factors in strength of schedule and the quality of a team’s victories and strength of schedule, among other things, as a metric the NCAA selection committee uses for Selection Sunday.
South Carolina remains undefeated against Quad 2 (7-0) and Quad 4 teams (11-0) and are 3-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 5-2 in Quad 3 chances.
The Gamecocks’ battle against Tennessee will be just the second true Quad 1 home game USC plays this year, since the Vols sit at No. 5 in NET ranking this week. The other Quad 1 home game was against Kentucky on Jan. 23.
Lamont Paris is 0-1 all-time as a head coach in the NCAA tournament, after falling in the first road at Chattanooga during the 2021-22 season. He’s reached the national championship game during the 2014-15 season as an assistant coach at Wisconsin and Final Four during the 2013-14. He helped lead the Badgers to seven straight tournament appearances, from 2011-17, and made the Division II NCAA Final Four as an assistant at IUP in 2001-02.
Gamecocks schedule
South Carolina hosts No. 4 Tennessee (23-6, 13-3 SEC) to close out its home slate this season Wednesday (7 p.m. ESPN2), and ends the regular season with a trip to Mississippi State (19-10, 8-8 SEC) on Saturday afternoon (2:30 p.m., SEC Network).
South Carolina is still without junior Myles Stute (sprained knee). USC hasn’t announced a return time for the forward. Redshirt senior Ebrima Dibba made his conference play debut against Texas A&M, after recovering from an Achilles injury he suffered in No. 2022.
When is the men’s SEC tournament?
The SEC men’s basketball tournament is March 13-17 in Nashville, Tennessee. It will be a single-elimination bracket, with the top four teams receiving first- and second-round byes into the quarterfinals. The championship game will be on Sunday afternoon on ESPN.
When is Selection Sunday?
The March Madness Selection Sunday show is 6 p.m. March 17 and will be broadcast on CBS.
What are the NCAA Tournament dates?
The first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament will be March 21-24. Game times for those rounds will be announced following Selection Sunday.
