What Vegas Thinks: Big shift in USC-Tennessee football point spread

Chapel Fowler
Sam Wolfe/Special To The State

Last year, the South Carolina football team faced its most lopsided point spread against Tennessee in 23 seasons.

Everyone remembers how that game went.

Factoring in the Gamecocks’ instant-classic win over the Volunteers in 2022, as well as both teams’ performances the past two weeks, USC is a significantly shorter underdog heading into Saturday’s game at No. 21 Tennessee (7:30 p.m., SEC Network).

USC (2-2, 1-1 SEC) is a 12.5-point underdog for its Saturday game against Tennessee (3-1, 0-1 SEC) in Neyland Stadium, according to the VegasInsider consensus line.

Sportsbooks aren’t completely sold on the Gamecocks, who are 2-2 and 1-1 in the SEC after splitting games with No. 1 Georgia (road loss) and Mississippi State (home win).

But they’re also giving South Carolina some props based on how the team performed last week, against Georgia two weeks ago (leading by 11 points at halftime before losing 24-14) and against Tennessee last year in Williams-Brice Stadium.

Saturday’s two-score point spread is still 10 points closer than the 2022 spread in Columbia (Tennessee -22.5). That was the Gamecocks’ worst point spread against the Volunteers, an annual SEC Eastern Division opponent, since 1999.

USC, of course, routed then-No. 5 Tennessee, 63-38, behind six touchdown passes from quarterback Spencer Rattler and 606 yards of total offense. That was the first of consecutive wins against AP Top 10 opponents for the Gamecocks, who beat Clemson on the road the following weekend to end coach Shane Beamer’s second season with a bang.

Gamblers have hopped on that spread promptly, with 64% of the point spread bet and 81% of the point spread money going toward South Carolina, per VegasInsider. That means a majority of bettors expect USC to either beat Tennessee outright or lose by 12 or fewer points.

South Carolina sits at 1-1 through two weeks of SEC play after beating Mississippi State 37-30 last Saturday behind another great game from Rattler (sixth nationally with 310.5 passing yards per game) and wide receiver Xavier Legette (No. 1 nationally with 556 receiving yards).

But the Gamecocks’ defense — and consistency — will be tested by a Tennessee team that has ranked as high as No. 9 in the AP Top 25 poll this season.

Coached by Josh Heupel and quarterbacked by Joe Milton III, the 2022 Orange Bowl champs have cruised against three cupcake opponents (including Virginia, one of the worst teams in the Power Five) but lost their SEC opener at Florida, 29-16.

That rivalry game loss, which ended in a brawl, dropped Tennessee 12 spots in the AP poll. The Volunteers jumped from No. 21 to No. 23 after routing UT-San Antonio at home last week.

Tennessee has won 21 of 31 meetings with South Carolina since the Gamecocks joined the SEC for the 1992 season, but South Carolina has won eight of the last 15 games from 2008-22 and four of the last seven games (mostly recently 2022).

A few more USC-Tennessee betting notes, via the Odds Shark database:

  • South Carolina is 3-1 against the spread this season and mostly recently covered the spread against Mississippi State as a six-point favorite (won by seven).

  • Tennessee is 2-2 against the spread this season and mostly recent covered the spread against UTSA as a 24-point favorite (won by 31).

  • South Carolina has a slight losing record against the spread in its last 10 games against Tennessee (4-5-1) and a slight winning record in last 10 game road games there (5-4-1).

  • USC is 2-8 and 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 SEC road games.

  • Tennessee is 6-4 and 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 SEC home games.

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