What Vegas Thinks: USC on the wrong side of a huge point spread vs. Texas A&M

Chapel Fowler
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports

As the South Carolina football team stumbles, it continues to fall out of favor with the sportsbooks responsible for setting weekly point spreads.

Saturday’s Texas A&M game is further evidence.

The Gamecocks (2-5, 1-4 SEC) are 14.5-point underdogs on the road against the Aggies (4-3, 2-2 SEC), according to the VegasInsider.com consensus line.

That is USC’s second-worst point spread all season, only trailing a Sept. 30 game against No. 1 Georgia in which the Gamecocks closed as a 26.5-point underdog.

It’s also the first time Texas A&M has been favored by 14 or more points against an SEC team — or a Power Five team in general — in over two seasons. The Aggies’ opponent on Oct. 23, 2021, the last time it happened? The Gamecocks, who were a 19.5-point underdog and lost by 30.

Las Vegas bookies aren’t sounding the alarm to that level come 2023, but they don’t have much faith in a Shane Beamer-led squad that has lost three straight conference games and currently sits sixth out of seven teams in the SEC Eastern Division standings, only ahead of Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M — led by coach Jimbo Fisher, who’s popping up on national media outlets’ “hot seat” lists for a second straight season after going 5-7 last year — will close a two-touchdown favorite against another Power Five team for the first time in 17 games this weekend.

Gamblers like Texas A&M’s chances of covering the spread, too, for Saturday’s game at Kyle Field (noon eastern, ESPN). VegasInsider reports that 61% of the bets placed against the spread and 71% of the money placed on those bets is going to the Aggies.

In other words, the majority of bettors think Texas A&M will win by at least 15 points against South Carolina, which has lost three straight to No. 21 Tennessee (road), Florida (home) and No. 20 Missouri (road) and finds itself scrapping for bowl eligibility.

The Gamecocks, who’ve played the nation’s fourth-toughest schedule per ESPN metrics, need to win four of their last five games to reach the six-win threshold for bowl eligibility. Texas A&M is the program’s last road game this season; USC closes with four straight home games (Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Clemson).

The ESPN Football Power Index also isn’t hot on South Carolina, giving Texas A&M an 84.6% chance to win Saturday’s inter-divisional game.

The Aggies have routinely had the Gamecocks’ number, winning eight straight games in the series from 2014-21 before South Carolina’s 30-24 home upset win in 2022. It was USC’s first ever win against Texas A&M, which moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2014.

Other South Carolina-Texas A&M notes via the Odds Shark database:

  • South Carolina is 3-4 against the spread this season and most recently failed to cover against Missouri as a 7.5-point underdog (lost by 20).

  • Texas A&M is 4-3 against the spread this season and most recently failed to cover against Tennessee as a 3-point underdog (lost by 7).

  • USC is 3-7 in its last 10 games as an underdog of at least 14 points, with all three of the wins coming under Beamer (Florida in 2021, Tennessee and Clemson in 2022). USC is also 6-4 against the spread in such games.

  • South Carolina is 5-15 overall and 8-12 against the spread in its last 20 road games (all SEC games outside of games at Clemson and East Carolina).

  • Texas A&M is 12-8 overall and 10-10 against the spread in its last 20 games as a betting favorite against any opponent.

SEC Football Week 9 Odds

Consensus lines via VegasInsider.com

  • South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14.5), noon (ESPN)

  • No. 1 Georgia (-20.5) vs. Florida in Jacksonville, 3:30 p.m. (CBS)

  • Mississippi State at Auburn (-6.5), 3:30 p.m. (SECN)

  • No. 21 Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky, 7 p.m. (ESPN)

  • Vanderbilt at No. 12 Ole Miss (-24.5), 7:30 p.m. (SECN)

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