Soggy weather to soak and chill Southeast

A change in the weather pattern across the southeastern United States this week will bring some familiar springtime weather woes to the region, but AccuWeather forecasters say that other threats, however, are likely to pause.

Rounds of rain and severe weather have targeted the South, stretching from Missouri and Texas to North Carolina and Florida, since the beginning of spring.

Just from April 9-11, more than 300 hail reports, over 250 damaging wind reports and 14 tornado reports were tallied by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the severe weather incidents were mainly concentrated across the southern U.S. These severe weather events piled on after several destructive storms and tornadoes tore paths of damage in late March.

There were 191 preliminary tornado reports during the month of March, which is well above the three-year average for the month of 82, according to the SPC. Of those, 48% touched down in Mississippi and Alabama.

A string of storms is likely to charge across the region again this week, bringing some familiar worries.

Showers and thunderstorms rolled across the Southeast on Tuesday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and rough surf. At least one vessel capsized off the coast of Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.

"Another round of thunderstorms will sweep through the Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Isaac Longley.

A lingering front along the Gulf Coast could bring additional rounds of rain from Houston to Pensacola, Florida, again on Thursday and Friday.

Across the region, widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected, with the potential for locally higher rainfall amounts possible right along the Gulf Coast, where totals could reach the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches.

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In heavier downpours, ponding could occur on roadways and torrential rain could dangerously reduce visibility for drivers, causing travel delays.

Other than lightning within any thunderstorms that develop, the greatest threat from the rounds of rain will be that of flooding, especially because much of the area has been very wet since the first week of March.

Cities such as New Orleans and Nashville have picked up more than 250% of normal rainfall amounts since the beginning of March. While this rainfall has mitigated drought issues in the region, it has left the area more susceptible to flooding.

In addition to these locations, cities such as Panama City and Pensacola in Florida, as well as Mobile, Alabama, were deluged by above-normal rainfall in the same time period, with amounts totaling as much as 7 or 8 inches.

The recent wet weather will increase the chances that this week's rain will lead to overflowing of creeks and streams, as well as rising river levels into the weekend.

Widespread severe weather is not expected with these next rounds of rain, which is likely to come as a relief for the storm-weary area that has been hit hard so far this spring.

A rush of incoming cooler air is expected behind each round of rain and thunderstorms, helping to progressively suppress the chances of severe weather across the region through the end of the week.

Temperatures across Louisiana to Georgia are forecast to fall from being in the middle to upper 80s on Monday afternoon back to the lower 70s by Wednesday or Thursday. In many locations, normal high temperatures are in the middle or upper 70s this time of year.

In Birmingham, Alabama, for example, a forecast high of 69 is expected on Thursday, following the warmth on Monday with an observed high of 84.

Friday's high temperatures across northern and central Florida are likely to drop as much as 10 degrees from peak temperatures on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The wet pattern so far in April finally spilled eastward across some areas that had missed out on rainfall thus far across the Southeast, targeting parts of the Florida Peninsula this past weekend, helping to alleviate drought conditions and also setting some records. Many locations across central and southern Florida were abnormally dry or in a moderate drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The rain didn't arrive without a cost, however, and also spawned severe thunderstorms that produced tornadoes, waterspouts, hail and damaging winds on Sunday.

Several daily rainfall records were shattered in Florida cities such as Fort Myers, Lakeland and Tampa on Sunday. The 2.02 inches of rain that fell in Tampa on Sunday easily surpassed the old record of 1.90 set in 1957, according to weather records that date back as far as 1890 in the city. Fort Myers picked up 2.05 inches on Sunday, eclipsing the old daily record of 1.10 set in 1911. The NWS reported that the 2.40 inches in Lakeland, Florida, beat out the previous daily record of 2.33 set in 1959.

These Florida towns are unlikely to be targeted by the heaviest rain this week.

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