Sunshine State to face soggy final days of 2023
Florida residents and vacationers hoping to bathe in the sun at the state's beaches or enjoy a dry day at its world-famous theme parks may be in for a soggy time through much of Christmas week as a couple waves of moisture move through, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
More rain, coming in at least two rounds from Christmas Day through late week, will contrast with what was a relatively quiet and dry run-up to the holiday. The rainy weather, however, is also a continuation of what has been a wet month-and year-in parts of the Sunshine State.
"Although the week will not be a total washout, those out and about will still want to plan on having umbrellas and other rain gear," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
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The same storm that brought flooding to Southern California and was soaking portions of the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve will arrive in Florida on Christmas Day, bringing the first round of rain for the holiday week. AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the potential for heavy rain to cause localized flooding over the holiday.
"Christmas looks especially soggy in the Florida Panhandle, as moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico can bring heavy thunderstorms," said Pydynowski. "In total, some areas could receive an inch or two of rain, which can lead to some flooding."
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Apalachicola, Panama City and Tallahassee are among the cities that will have a very wet Christmas. While localized flooding from the rain is of paramount concern, conditions may also be ripe for the development of strong, gusty thunderstorms.
Later in the day, and on Christmas night, some rain can advance into the peninsula, bringing raindrops to places such as Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa.
While the first episode of wet weather will be heavily focused on the panhandle, the rest of the state will get another round or two in the days following Christmas as a wave of moisture rides along a nearly stationary front, warn AccuWeather meteorologists.
"For those planning on a post-Christmas vacation in southern Florida, a frontal boundary remaining in the area can bring another round of rain from Wednesday into Thursday," Pydynowski said.
Those heading to the theme parks around Orlando, the attractions along the Space Coast or the South Beach of Miami will want to wear a raincoat and pack rain gear.
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Rainfall amounts of over an inch are possible, but the rain should be spread out over a few days rather than a few hours. This will be a relief for those areas that have already dealt with multiple torrential rain events in 2023, including Fort Lauderdale, which received a whopping 22.50 inches of rain on April 12 and another 10.66 inches of rain between Nov. 14 and 16. Both rain events contributed to the wettest year on record for the Atlantic coastal city.
In contrast, the rain expected to fall on a portion of Florida's Gulf coast from the Tampa Bay area south to around Fort Myers may leave locals pining for more. Partially due to no direct tropical impacts or landfalls this past hurricane season, the area is experiencing "extreme" drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor released on Thursday. Naples, Florida, has only recorded about half of the rain it typically does in a calendar year, 24.97 inches versus 49.32 inches through Dec. 25.
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Several college football bowl games are scheduled in Florida throughout the week, but most of the matchups will be played in indoor stadiums and will avoid forecasted rain-except for one.
"If the rain lingers long enough, it could impact the Pop-Tarts Bowl at Camping World Stadium on Thursday evening," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. That game pits North Carolina State against Kansas State. Latest indications point toward the wet weather sinking south of Orlando by that time.
Although multiple days of wet weather are in the forecast, AccuWeather meteorologists say it will not be a washout for all. After Christmas Day, the Florida Panhandle is likely to enjoy a stretch of dry weather through the remainder of the week, though it will be turning chillier as December winds down.
"Eventually, drier and cooler air will press southward through Florida behind the front by Thursday or Friday," said Pydynowski. "This will bring more in the way of sunshine, less humid conditions and cooler air to the Florida Peninsula as well."
In Orlando, temperatures in the 70s during the rain will be traded for daytime highs in the 60s or even the upper 50s, and nighttime lows close to or below 50 by late in the week and over New Year's weekend. More importantly, the dry weather can have staying power for those with plans to be outside to ring in 2024.
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