Snow, ice storm in southern US to evolve to bring wintry conditions to the East Coast
A cold storm will spread snow and ice from the south-central United States to the interior Southeast from later this weekend to early next week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. While there is the likelihood of a winter storm with snow and ice in the mid-Atlantic and New England from Monday night to Tuesday, a wide range of scenarios may unfold due to two key weather factors.
"The storm is expected to ride the jet stream and along the fringe of a press of Arctic air that will expand across most of the nation into midmonth and beyond," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.
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How forcefully the Arctic air presses to the Atlantic coast early on and the configuration of the jet stream next week will determine the north versus south track and intensity of the upcoming storm, Buckingham explained.
An area of snow and ice will continue its trek across the East Coast on Monday as Arctic air spreads into the region.
Snow and ice gathered over the southern Plains and part of the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday night and was spreading into parts of the southern Appalachians and mid-Atlantic on Monday morning. The snow in the mid-Atlantic zone has been and will continue to be light and intermittent during the day on Monday.
In areas from the southern Appalachians to the southern Plains, a couple of inches to a foot of snow will fall, with locally higher amounts. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches is most likely in parts of the southern Appalachians.
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South of the batch of snow, an area of dangerous ice extended from northeastern Texas to the northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia on Monday morning. This icy zone will expand southeastward and will reach portions of the Interstate 10 corridor of the central and western Gulf coast by Monday night.
While any form of ice -- sleet or freezing rain -- is hazardous, it is where a glaze of freezing rain occurs that can be especially dangerous for motorists and pose the risk of a buildup of ice on trees and power lines.
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Given the low temperatures during the storm in the Southern states and a lack of equipment and materials to combat the storm in a timely manner, major travel disruptions are likely on the roads and at the airports. The major southern hubs of Dallas; Nashville and Memphis, Tennessee; Jackson, Mississippi; and Little Rock, Arkansas; will be hit hard by the storm. Enough snow to shovel and plow will blanket Nashville and Memphis. Some of the northern suburbs of Atlanta will pick up some slippery snow and ice from the storm.
As the system shifts over the East Coast states during the first part of the new week, snowy conditions will expand along the coast from Washington, D.C., to Boston. The key for a significant snowstorm to unfold over the Northeast is linked to a disturbance that could cause the jet stream to buckle.
"Should a large dip develop in the jet stream, a winter storm will climb the Atlantic coast from Monday night to Tuesday night," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck explained. "However, should only a shallow dip in the jet stream develop, the storm would be more likely to escape off the southern Atlantic coast by midweek."
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A more west-to-east storm track would mean that Arctic air is pressing in quickly and may lead to areas of snow and ice farther to the south in the Carolinas and southern Virginia, rather than a storm that tracks northward along the coast with heavy snow.
With the range of scenarios ranging from a complete miss in the Northeast to a broad swath of heavy snow, the evolving answer is somewhere in the middle.
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"Based solely on the overall pattern, weighing all the options, a storm seems likely to evolve along the Atlantic coast with the potential for treatable or plowable snow in the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic and New England, with rain more likely over Delmarva, the New Jersey shore, Long Island, New York, and southeastern New England," AccuWeather Senior Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Lundberg explained.
The scenario Lundberg explained factors in warm waters over the western Atlantic causing the Arctic air to hang back just enough, combined with more of a northward bend in the jet stream to allow a near-coast storm track from Monday night to Tuesday night. However, the premise of a rapidly strengthening storm that unloads heavy snow from I-95 to the interior Northeast is unlikely.
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Despite the most likely scenario of a swath of light to moderate snow, widespread travel disruptions are likely in the I-95 corridor.
While many parts of New England and the interior mid-Atlantic have recently snapped their snowless streak during the first part of January, the I-95 metro areas from Washington, D.C., to New York City still have not had their first inch of snow from a single storm this winter.
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That snow deprivation continues back through last winter and into the depths of the winter of 2021-2022.
Any widespread snow that covers roads and results in the deicing of aircraft will lead to major travel problems.
Yet another storm will be watched closely by AccuWeather's team of meteorologists for possible wintry impacts in parts of the South and along the Atlantic coast from late this week into the weekend.
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